Energy Prices

MouldyOldDough

Are we stuck with ever increasing energy costs forever or will a change in world events bring prices back down eventually?

[Deleted User]

Yes.

Or are you hoping for a more complicated discussion?

Flight3287462

Best to start generating your own electricity.

Magnitio

No. They won't be ever increasing. They will fluctuate. If we invest more in renewables, the hourly/daily rate may fluctuate by even more significant amounts and be more dependent on the weather. If greater energy storage capacity is developed alongside renewables, then these fluctuations will be less of an issue and will make average pricing for the consumer easier to predict.

macman

Wholesale gas prices have already fallen back a great deal, but unfortunately we are locked into a system that prices electricity largely based on peak gas rates.
Long term, the boost given to renewables by the current gas shortages should bring prices down.
Future prices in the UK are likely to be dictated more by the move to become less dependent on non-domestic imports than to go for the cheapest options. If the Ukraine war ended tomorrow, the West would not want to resume importing Russian gas in previous volumes, because we have now realised that such dependence makes us very vulnerable.

ariarnia

i dont know that things ever become cheaper than they were (no more penny sweets!) but cost is relative to wages and other expenses and things tend to balance out after a period of high inflation. ever is also a big word. new tech will be invented and energy could even be free in the future. or renewables could never really manage to met demand fossil fuels run out and energy becomes the most valuable comodity on the planet. but i think by the time ether of those situations comes about we will have bigger problems to worry about (if we're even still here )

Bramble96

Just come off an edf fixed price tariff. Our charge for electricity and gas for Nov and Dec was £269. For similar usage under the Govt's latest capped prices our bill for the two months would have been £838 - increases of 231% for electricity and 437% for gas. I expected to pay more but crazy numbers !

MattMattMattUK

Bramble96 said:

Just come off an edf fixed price tariff. Our charge for electricity and gas for Nov and Dec was £269. For similar usage under the Govt's latest capped prices our bill for the two months would have been £838 - increases of 231% for electricity and 437% for gas. I expected to pay more but crazy numbers !

The increase is to be expected, but that would tend to indicate your energy usage is incredibly high.

EssexHebridean

Just a bit! Even your £269 a month would see us sorted for energy for nearly 2 months now, at the current prices!   

Scot_39

MouldyOldDough said:

Are we stuck with ever increasing energy costs forever or will a change in world events bring prices back down eventually?

It took years after previous energy crisis for oil to stabilise. Let alone for inflation to catch it up.
No one can really predict what will happen to gas prices.

The last Cornwall Insight forecasts were dropping down significantly by Q3 2023 - to below EPG £3000, but still way above pre Crisis levels, see 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/drop-in-wholesale-energy-prices-sees-price-cap-predictions-fall-below-the-energy-price-guarantee-for-second-half-of-2023/

But just weeks before the same sight carried a warning based on wholesale gas still being twice last Dec etc. 

That's a complicated and largely out of our control situation (e.g. Putin, other suppliers reaction to G7 cap on Russian gas etc - all still to pan out, the actual weather across EU and world impact on demand and renewables etc etc)

But in medium term uk in next few years - even more new generating capacity will be coming on stream at 'capped' prices - under the CfD contracts used by the Cons govt since 2012.

From the

2019 renewables auction (c5.8GW - price ?) - for delivery 2023-25
2022 renewables auction (10 GW wind and solar @ down to record lows of 4.35p/kWh indexed wholesale for FOW ) - for delivery 2025-27
and
if EDF ever deliver Hinkley C nuclear (delayed to 2026/7 ?) (3.2GW at c10p iirc 9.8p 2012 indexing if Sizewell order signed - which it has been - but in time window to get associated c2p discount ??))

20 GW over 5 years - over half uk current live grid demand of 37GW as of 2pm today - all under capped price CfD contracts.

The problems 

- far too much of it is unreliable wind - with no significant storage planned at a national level for still days / weeks.  On a still day the near 14GW new wind might only deliver sub 1.4GW  (3 weeks ago in cold snap 25.5 installed was delivering sub 3)
 
- we misplan to lose well over 5GW of reliable coal and nuclear core generation in the same time frame. Having lost 2GW nuclear this last year.

So uk spot pricing will still  remain far too highly at the mercy of the wind.

MikeJXE

Yes but by how much no one knows