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mark_cycling00

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bostonerimus

Why would you buy VHYL over VWRL? Why worry about market timing based on macroeconomic tea leaf reading? Get your allocation set according to your personal financial goals. Don't think so much.

InvesterJones

Don't forget to view any recommendation in its context and which portfolio in particular it's being added to (and what the other members of that portfolio are). Pensioncraft have never recommended investing in solely a single fund as far as I can tell.

But on hedging, yes, look at their other videos.

hallmark

IMO the unsung benefit of DCA is the currency hedge for UK investors investing in US shares or vice versa.

There are plenty of videos out there discussing the pros & cons of DCA regarding share values (the overall concensus being that perhaps it's not really of massive benefit).  However you don't see many people discussing the currency aspect which IMO is a better reason to DCA than the share value reason.

Malthusian

There is no evidence that anyone can consistently beat the market by overweighting growth shares before they have one of their occasional periods of outperformance.
Overweighting the US but "hedging" against the dollar doesn't make sense. Either you believe that US shares are going to beat the global stockmarket or you don't. If you want to hedge against the possibility you are wrong about US shares outperforming, you may as well just buy a global multi-asset tracker that matches your appetite for risk and forget about it.

adindas

mark_cycling00 said:

Recently, "non-clickbait" people are advising that dividend stocks have bottomed out, as interest-rates have possibly peaked in US and UK.
So when PensionCraft recommend VHYLl do we need to hedge against USD falling (as also seems to be expected) and is this possible? Perhaps through similar funds?
it is 46% USA based so a drop in the value of USD would see off some of those gains.
I don't want to start buying individual stocks again, even though I can see these staring to rise and have 8%+ yields
thanks!

Regarding the original question this thread. Yes it is possible to hedge against currency by using the currency hedge version of the index. For S&P500 for instance, IGUS (iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged UCITS ETF Acc)

Regarding Pensioncraft, I personally respect PensionCraft with his knowledge of financial regulation, pension, tax free investment in the UK. But when come to strategy in making money. I do not think he has a good knowledge. At least, it is unproven in his own personal investment journey, he has never shown that he makes a lot of money in the stock money and become a multi millionaires using his own strategy. He has not shown evidence that he has ever beat the market using the strategy he tells his audience.

Also one thing I observe is that it seems he does not have (or at least he has not shown) technical analytical skills. Almost all (if not all) of investment strategists that you watch in well known investment channel like CNBC, Yahoo finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN finance is in possession of technical analytical skills in addition to stock market knowledge, valuing investment/stocks.

I remember his analogy about investing strategy like Scooby Doo .If you want to perform like Scooby Doo than follow Scooby Doo investing strategy  

He is telling people to invest reasonable percentage in Bond Fund. Those who follow listen to this strategy of random people in the internet you see what it has ended up now.

It does not need a deep research to know the result.Just simply plot  the result of VLS100 vs VLS60 (40% Bond) over a longer duration of time and observe the outcome.

If you can not outperform the market / index fund, it begs the question why would anyone want to waste time, to listen, to learn new things where you could simply throw, DCA  your money into S&P 500 and forget ??. No need to waste time to learn new thing?

For strategy you would better learn from, listen to proven investors, billionaires investor who have proven track records of making money or follow what smart money is doing. Not random people from the internet

NoviceInvestor1

adindas said:

Just simply plot  the result of VLS100 vs VLS60 (40% Bond) over a longer duration of time and observe the outcome.

This is not possible, as VLS100 and VLS60 have not been available over a "long duration of time" in investing terms.

They have been available for a 10 year period which was a massive bull market for stocks, and rock bottom interest rates. Of course stocks would do better in this short cycle.

mark_cycling00

Thanks adindas for your detailed and useful opinion on pensioncraft. 

Most of my investments are regular monthly payments.  I sold a few individual income shares as they began to crash and would like to return via a fund. 

InvesterJones

adindas said:

Also one thing I observe is that it seems he does not have (or at least he has not shown) technical analytical skills. Almost all (if not all) of investment strategists that you watch in well known investment channel like CNBC, Yahoo finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN finance is in possession of technical analytical skills in addition to stock market knowledge, valuing investment/stocks.

He has stated he doesn't agree with technical analysis, so he's not the one to follow if you're looking for such things, but rather he prefers things like value (especially things like excess CAPE yield).