Solar PV Panel development …….. ?

ABrass

Isn't that going to assume a set payback period as well as a host of other stats?

Assuming 1/3 self consumption at 34p and 2/3 SEG at 15p then my average value of each kWh is about 23p.

Assuming that the system generates around 1,000kWh for each kW of panels then each kW of panels will earn £210 a year.

For it to pay back in 10 years then up to £2.10 is acceptable.

BUT that assumes the current high prices stay. If we dropped down to 20p/5p then the same system must cost no more than £1 a kWh for that 10 year goal.

For uk1 £1 a kWh is the goal right now (roughly), if you can hit that then buy it. If you can't then the only reason to buy now is if you think that same system will cost more next year.

Batteries contribute by increasing the proportion of self consumption and increasing the price obviously.

uk1

Thanks Arty,

I think you were originally suggesting that I base my decision today and should proceed today on the basis of what I am paying today and ignoring potential technical benefits of any possible unknown future improvements I might get if I delayed. If I do exactly that, then as I said in my OP, then that implies that you believe advise that at less than 19p per unit then I should wait?

I think you then followed up and suggested if the rate didn't justify buying today then I should ignore what I currently pay but should instead attempt to predict what I might have to pay in September 2023 when my fix ends and buy solar today based on what I might guess the rate might or might not be in  years time.

I’m clearly not understanding. 

You seem to be saying that if buying today doesn't make any sense whatsoever on paper because of my low current power costs then I should buy it today even if it is of no benefit today but insteadI should my decision on what I might guess it might be in a years time. You seem to be advising that I should buy it now whether it makes any sense or not.

uk1

ABrass said:

Isn't that going to assume a set payback period as well as a host of other stats?

Assuming 1/3 self consumption at 34p and 2/3 SEG at 15p then my average value of each kWh is about 23p.

Assuming that the system generates around 1,000kWh for each kW of panels then each kW of panels will earn £210 a year.

For it to pay back in 10 years then up to £2.10 is acceptable.

BUT that assumes the current high prices stay. If we dropped down to 20p/5p then the same system must cost no more than £1 a kWh for that 10 year goal.

For uk1 £1 a kWh is the goal right now (roughly), if you can hit that then buy it. If you can't then the only reason to buy now is if you think that same system will cost more next year.

Batteries contribute by increasing the proportion of self consumption and increasing the price obviously.

Many Thanks.

In Hampshire I’m not being quoted anything remotely like £1k per kWh and to me that implies that with my current unit price of <19p  I should wait.  Another factor is that older people should perhaps think a little  about extremely long term front end investments particularly if their daily refreshment of choice is Abolut vodka. 😀

2nd_time_buyer

uk1 said:

ABrass said:

Isn't that going to assume a set payback period as well as a host of other stats?

Assuming 1/3 self consumption at 34p and 2/3 SEG at 15p then my average value of each kWh is about 23p.

Assuming that the system generates around 1,000kWh for each kW of panels then each kW of panels will earn £210 a year.

For it to pay back in 10 years then up to £2.10 is acceptable.

BUT that assumes the current high prices stay. If we dropped down to 20p/5p then the same system must cost no more than £1 a kWh for that 10 year goal.

For uk1 £1 a kWh is the goal right now (roughly), if you can hit that then buy it. If you can't then the only reason to buy now is if you think that same system will cost more next year.

Batteries contribute by increasing the proportion of self consumption and increasing the price obviously.

Many Thanks.

In Hampshire I’m not being quoted anything remotely like £1k per kWh and to me that implies that with my current unit price of <19p  I should wait.  Another factor is that older people should perhaps think a little  about extremely long term front end investments particularly if their daily refreshment of choice is Abolut vodka. 😀

My parents and sister both used Barry Frampton in Lymington. Not the cheapest but not that far off. They are pleased and he was happy to come back to sort out a few teething problems. Might be worth getting a quote from him.

arty688

uk1 said:

Thanks Arty,

I think you were suggesting that I base my decision and should proceed today on the basis of what I am paying today and ignoring potential technical benefits of future improvements I might get if I delayed. If I do exactly that, then as I said in my OP, then that implies that you believe that at less than19p per unit then shouldn’t I wait?

I think you then followed up and suggested I should ignore what I currently pay but should instead attempt to predict what I might have to pay in September 2023 when my fix ends and ignore what I am currently paying but buy solar today based on what I might guess I would be the rate in  years time.

I’m clearly not understanding.  Have I understood you correctly?  Why do you think I shouldn’t simply hold on to my cash and make that decision next year but should proceed today?

What I am saying is that September next year based on current knowledge you can take an educated guess with some confidence that you will be paying more than 19p a unit. Looking further ahead the pridictions become less and less acurate. Also from current advances in effciency of solar panels are slowish so a year will not make much difference , What would make more of a difference is the make of panels you choose. So much cheaper less efficent panels can make the best finanical sense.Also its probably a reasonable assumtion that PV is not going to be any cheaper in 12 months time.

but if you take thej financies out of it the question is it worth waiting for advances in tech my opinion is NO 

So before deciding on PV you need to answer.

Is it just a financial decision ?

How much will it cost ? If your house is standard install probably £1.50-£2 KWh depending on size of the array.

How much will i generate ? PVGIS for that

How much will I use/export.

How much will I save?

What is the payback ? based on 19p ATM see what it comes out as.

What is the money doing now ?

what value will my house increase in price ? 

and probably 100 others

uk1

arty688 said:

uk1 said:

Thanks Arty,

I think you were suggesting that I base my decision and should proceed today on the basis of what I am paying today and ignoring potential technical benefits of future improvements I might get if I delayed. If I do exactly that, then as I said in my OP, then that implies that you believe that at less than19p per unit then shouldn’t I wait?

I think you then followed up and suggested I should ignore what I currently pay but should instead attempt to predict what I might have to pay in September 2023 when my fix ends and ignore what I am currently paying but buy solar today based on what I might guess I would be the rate in  years time.

I’m clearly not understanding.  Have I understood you correctly?  Why do you think I shouldn’t simply hold on to my cash and make that decision next year but should proceed today?

What I am saying is that September next year based on current knowledge you can take an educated guess with some confidence that you will be paying more than 19p a unit. Looking further ahead the pridictions become less and less acurate. Also from current advances in effciency of solar panels are slowish so a year will not make much difference , What would make more of a difference is the make of panels you choose. So much cheaper less efficent panels can make the best finanical sense.Also its probably a reasonable assumtion that PV is not going to be any cheaper in 12 months time.

but if you take thej financies out of it the question is it worth waiting for advances in tech my opinion is NO 

So before deciding on PV you need to answer.

Is it just a financial decision ?

How much will it cost ? If your house is standard install probably £1.50-£2 KWh depending on size of the array.

How much will i generate ? PVGIS for that

How much will I use/export.

How much will I save?

What is the payback ? based on 19p ATM see what it comes out as.

What is the money doing now ?

what value will my house increase in price ? 

and probably 100 others

Thanks for your ideas.  Very much appreciated.