Solar PV Panel development …….. ?

Alnat1

It will depend on how busy the installation companies are in a year's time. At the moment there are often long waits as they are very busy and also due to supply problems.

You don't want to wait until early 2024 to start getting quotes if there are still 6-9 month waiting lists to get it fitted.

uk1

Thanks!

Alternatively.

In 2024 there will be more installers and the current panic might be less.

Martyn1981

As PV lasts so long, I don't think it matters so much when you install, and a late year install means you get to see generation rising over and over till your first summer peak ..... but of course that's just psychological, but perhaps more fun than watching it decline.

However, with low gen approaching, and panels getting better/cheaper all the time (or at least they were before!!!!!) there is an argument for a 6 month delay, each Autumn, but that might be countered by lower demand on installers (again in normal times) and lower prices.

So there you have it, absolutely no good definitive advice whatsoever from me, sorry.



As for leccy prices, I assume there is no short term fix now with Russia/gas, and even a capitulation by Russia might not help, assuming the West stands firm on FF restrictions till reparations have been made. So that could take 2-5yrs?

So, presumably it's option 2, reduce gas demand equal to the amount from Russia (30-40%), which may take Europe 5yrs, but presumably the leccy price will slowly decline over that 5yrs, as the price of gas, and the amount used for leccy generation declines?

Obviously all guesses on what is a simply massive issue.

uk1

Many thanks.  

A possibility with respect to the current nonsense to pegging electricity prices irrelevantly to gas prices and therefore the consequence of inflation of electricity unit pricing and as a consequence the increase of cap price inflation and the consequence of a likelihood  of windfall tax extensions this week is the slight possibility a lightbulb moment of someone, somewhere in government de-linking gas prices to electricity prices.  I am bewildered by seeing no progress on that linkage and I have the rather eccentric belief that sooner or later  that light bulb moment will alight and it happens.  If it does then electricity will refloat to a more sensible level.

ABrass

Waiting a year does make sense if you're on a fix. You would be saving money at a lower electricity rate, so you won't get a huge amount of value out of them.

The additional demand for installs will result in more installers, helping reduce the premium that they can charge at the moment.

PV panel volumes are continuing to rise, but demand is also going to stay high so I wouldn't be surprised if the prices for equipment will remain flat.

My tuppence, I can't see these prices remaining indefinitely, but the thing that'll drive them lower is the sudden lack of demand for new installs if grid prices finally drop back to historical levels.

arty688

It also depends on how much electric you use , I know we now consider 19p to be cheap but when I was first looking at panels it was more like 12p and it still made sense for me to have panels but I use 20mwh a year with panels it tends to be it isn't what you produce its how much of it you use thats important.(unless are a low user and have been on Agile export)

uk1

Thanks.  I use around 6700kwh.  Heating is from oil all year and logs.

arty688

If you are going to get solar I don't see the point in waiting personally , everything techy you buy there is always a newer better model coming out so you would never buy anything.As for electric prices I think you have to do the calculations on today as tomorrow is anyones guess, 5 years time it might be 1p a unit.

uk1

arty688 said:

If you are going to get solar I don't see the point in waiting personally , everything techy you buy there is always a newer better model coming out so you would never buy anything.As for electric prices I think you have to do the calculations on today as tomorrow is anyones guess, 5 years time it might be 1p a unit.

Thanks.  If I do as you suggest then whilst as I explained in my OP that I’m paying less than 19p per unit until September 2023, then doesn’t that imply that I shouldn’t do anything now doesn’t it? 

arty688

Probably should of said todays knowledge IE there's a good chance when your fixed ends you will be paying more than 19P ,although you will still save money if you are paying 19p a unit.

out of interest what is you pence per unit line where solar becomes viable ?