Outgoing Octopus vs FITs?

macman

I have a small 1.26kW 6 panel solar PV system that has been installed for 12 years and which gives an average generation of 1,100kWh pa. I am currently registered for FITs with EDF, who were my supplier when the system was installed. Average annual usage is about 3,000kWh. I do not have stored hot water (combi boiler only), so cannot take advantage of dumping unused PV generation into a hot tank vi an iBoost or similar. Heating and DHW is from a mains gas boiler.
I have recently switched to Octopus Tracker v1 for my electricity and gas supply, and smart meters are being installed later this month. So I am considering whether to switch my FITs to Octopus Agile to take advantage of the much higher export rate offered. (about 3 times more than FITs). However, given that, under FITs, I currently benefit from an assumed 50% of generation being exported, how likely is is that I would be better off under Outgoing Octopus, whereby the smart meter (if I understand correctly) measures the actual export level achieved and bills accordingly? At present, I have no way to measure the proportion of generation that is exported, as my set-up does not have an export meter. I have no idea whether it is as high as 50%, but I doubt it. Is there a calculation I can do do determine which is better? My rough and ready estimate is that, given the 3x higher export rate paid, I'd only need to achieve an export level of around 17% to make Outgoing the better option than 50% assumed?
Would it be better to wait until I have a few months/full year export data from the smart meter before deciding? And, if I do switch to Outgoing, can anyone advise if I should opt for Outgoing Fixed, or Outgoing Agile?
Anyone with some experience of Outgoing for this kind of setup?

QrizB

I was in a similar position and decided not to make any decisions until I had a year's metered export from my smart meter.

It turns out that I'm exporting about 1200kWh/yr from the 2600/yr I generate, and so I'd be better off being paid by the kWh.

Outgoing Fixed vs Agile is a personal choice. Over the past 24 months, Agile has paid more but at the moment it's switched around and Fixed is the more lucrative. Both are better than the regular 4-5p SEG you'll get elsewhere.

Mister_G

Yes, when you get your smart meter, one of the registers is EXP which shows the amount you are exporting to the grid.

As suggested, it's probably worth monitoring it for a year to see if it's worth changing.

macman

I was working on the basis that, the smaller the system installed, the less generation there is, and therefore the greater the chance that a higher proportion is consumed rather than exported. Even though my PV system is very small, my annual kWh consumption is pretty much average for a 3 b/r property.
But I'll take your advice and run it for a year, or certainly into next summer, to see what I'm still able to export. In winter, I suppose, not very much.

QrizB

macman said:

I was working on the basis that, the smaller the system installed, the less generation there is, and therefore the greater the chance that a higher proportion is consumed rather than exported.

Yes, you're right, the smaller the system the less likely you are to have high export numbers.

But in May-August, when you're likely to generate most of your power, you're likely to also have the lowest demand for electricity. I wouldn't be at all surprised if you turn out to be exporting between 1/3rd and 1/2 of what you generate.

mmmmikey

Worth being aware that once you have a smart meter fitted EDF may require you to go to metered exports (which is a condition of the FIT agreement). But I don't know if they'd find out or know about the smart meter unless you told them. One way or the other though, your import from exports is ca. £35 per annum so it's not going to break the bank (I hope ) if you go up or down a few quid while you're gathering data.

macman

Thanks to all who replied. Having looked at my FIT's export earnings in a bit more detail, the maximum I can get is about £28 a year. On Outgoing Octopus Fixed, I would get £82 if can hit the 50% target. So, although none of the figures are very large, the potential upside is much greater than the potential downside, so I'll probably give Outgoing Fixed a try once my smart meter is installed  in a few weeks.