Has the market crashed?

[Deleted User]

In my area a 40% crash is required to hit 2016 prices and a 20% crash to roll back to 2020 figures. 

With the supply and demand aspect  it will be interesting to see what happens to this market. I dont expect prices to increase but I suspect that there will remain some demand for the very few properties available.

jimbog

fackers_2 said:

In my experience, I believe so.  I have been aggressively looking at houses, noting down listing prices then their reduced price etc. Our large search area is within the SW stretching as West as Bristol and East as Swindon. Almost all houses we are interested in are on for minimum 2 weeks before any change, in that there is almost always a price drop of around £20k-£30k

Is a ‘crash’ in asking prices is the same as a crash in house prices?

fackers_2

jimbog said:

fackers_2 said:

In my experience, I believe so.  I have been aggressively looking at houses, noting down listing prices then their reduced price etc. Our large search area is within the SW stretching as West as Bristol and East as Swindon. Almost all houses we are interested in are on for minimum 2 weeks before any change, in that there is almost always a price drop of around £20k-£30k

Is a ‘crash’ in asking prices is the same as a crash in house prices?

One can be of the same if there’s a buyer willing to pay it.  Overall from what I’m seeing, there’s already a drop of at least 5% happening - Off of the original listing price. 

[Deleted User]

Noneforit999 said:

Exodi said:

[Deleted User] said:

As someone who would like to buy I'm holding off for now.

I think many will be doing the same.

You have many sellers, who have seen there houses absolutely balloon in value over the past couple of years (using my house as example I bought for £300k in mid 2019, and have seen similar houses for sale during this summer up for sale between £400k - £500k)... absolutely madness.

You have to wait for these sellers to come back to Earth which is not going to be quick. Take the OP - "it doesnt feel over priced compared to recent sales in the summer". This will be a common theme amongst current sellers, and if they're not willing to come back to Earth, they'll see demand disappear.

People just can not afford high energy bills, soaring food prices, increased fuel prices, with pay-rises that in most cases are real terms pay cuts, on top of ~£500 extra on a mortgage to buy someones now overpriced house.

I wouldn't dream of buying in the next few months.

What is going to be different in six months time though? Even if house prices drop say 10% in that time, unless you are a FTB then your existing house will have likely dropped a similar amount so you have less equity to roll onto a new house and unless mortgage rates drop substantially, its going to make little difference.

If you put moving off for several years then things may change (perhaps) but I don't see how 6-12 months is going to look much different from now.

More like six years time. Get the recession over with, election at the end of 2024, then time for the new government to make a little progress towards stabilising things.

The UK won't be right for at least a decade, probably much longer. Brexit isn't going away soon and the last 12 years have really racked up the debt - government, household, and social. We also have 2 million with long COVID, massive loss of productivity and massive increase in healthcare and benefits costs.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] said:

In my area a 40% crash is required to hit 2016 prices and a 20% crash to roll back to 2020 figures. 

With the supply and demand aspect  it will be interesting to see what happens to this market. I dont expect prices to increase but I suspect that there will remain some demand for the very few properties available.

40% would be good, and keep in mind we are at the start of a long recession. The main problem is buy to let. As investments and pensions do poorly people look to becoming a landlord for income. We must keep the pressure up to make it less attractive.

jimbog

[Deleted User] said:

[Deleted User] said:

In my area a 40% crash is required to hit 2016 prices and a 20% crash to roll back to 2020 figures. 

With the supply and demand aspect  it will be interesting to see what happens to this market. I dont expect prices to increase but I suspect that there will remain some demand for the very few properties available.

The main problem is buy to let. As investments and pensions do poorly people look to becoming a landlord for income. We must keep the pressure up to make it less attractive.

Who are we pressurising? And how do we 'keep the pressure up'? 

Bookowl

babyblade41 said:

From a seasoned buyer & occasional seller.. this is no different than a lot of times, peaks & troughs  over a 5 year period.

Really depends on what you want out of a property, if it's your long term home then general markets shouldn't really come into the equation, they go , they go down but usually rise over a certain period of time

If you are looking to invest and expect a short term high return then you will be sadly disappointed , 

If you want a home & love the house you are looking to buy & as long as any valuations are pretty much spot on then all is fine 

Thanks for this information as a FTB is the valuation done by a mortgage company does is it the same as the one that the surveyor does?

As  a FTB I’m all new to this - very daunting. 

MobileSaver

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

fackers_2 said:

In my experience, I believe so.  I have been aggressively looking at houses, noting down listing prices then their reduced price etc. Our large search area is within the SW stretching as West as Bristol and East as Swindon. Almost all houses we are interested in are on for minimum 2 weeks before any change, in that there is almost always a price drop of around £20k-£30k

Is a ‘crash’ in asking prices is the same as a crash in house prices?

Overall from what I’m seeing, there’s already a drop of at least 5% happening - Off of the original listing price. 

So just to be clear - if I put my house on the market today with an asking price 10% above what I think it's really worth and then drop the price by 5% in two weeks time then in your view that's a "crash"?!?! Er, yeah, ok, keep taking those meds!

[Deleted User] said:

brett19852010 said:

With the supply and demand aspect  it will be interesting to see what happens to this market. I dont expect prices to increase but I suspect that there will remain some demand for the very few properties available.

40% would be good, and keep in mind we are at the start of a long recession. ... We must keep the pressure up to make it less attractive.

House-building material costs have gone through the roof, labour costs are increasing and borrowing costs have increased significantly so I'd love to know where you think all these cheap new "40% off" houses are going to come from?!?!

GDB2222

[Deleted User] said:

Noneforit999 said:

Exodi said:

[Deleted User] said:

As someone who would like to buy I'm holding off for now.

I think many will be doing the same.

You have many sellers, who have seen there houses absolutely balloon in value over the past couple of years (using my house as example I bought for £300k in mid 2019, and have seen similar houses for sale during this summer up for sale between £400k - £500k)... absolutely madness.

You have to wait for these sellers to come back to Earth which is not going to be quick. Take the OP - "it doesnt feel over priced compared to recent sales in the summer". This will be a common theme amongst current sellers, and if they're not willing to come back to Earth, they'll see demand disappear.

People just can not afford high energy bills, soaring food prices, increased fuel prices, with pay-rises that in most cases are real terms pay cuts, on top of ~£500 extra on a mortgage to buy someones now overpriced house.

I wouldn't dream of buying in the next few months.

What is going to be different in six months time though? Even if house prices drop say 10% in that time, unless you are a FTB then your existing house will have likely dropped a similar amount so you have less equity to roll onto a new house and unless mortgage rates drop substantially, its going to make little difference.

If you put moving off for several years then things may change (perhaps) but I don't see how 6-12 months is going to look much different from now.

More like six years time. Get the recession over with, election at the end of 2024, then time for the new government to make a little progress towards stabilising things.

The UK won't be right for at least a decade, probably much longer. Brexit isn't going away soon and the last 12 years have really racked up the debt - government, household, and social. We also have 2 million with long COVID, massive loss of productivity and massive increase in healthcare and benefits costs.

The long Covid figures may be a bit exaggerated. Only 16% of sufferers reported that it interfered with day to day activities a lot. Whilst acknowledging the personal issues, the economic impact for many of the remainder is probably quite small.

fackers_2

MobileSaver said:

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

fackers_2 said:

In my experience, I believe so.  I have been aggressively looking at houses, noting down listing prices then their reduced price etc. Our large search area is within the SW stretching as West as Bristol and East as Swindon. Almost all houses we are interested in are on for minimum 2 weeks before any change, in that there is almost always a price drop of around £20k-£30k

Is a ‘crash’ in asking prices is the same as a crash in house prices?

Overall from what I’m seeing, there’s already a drop of at least 5% happening - Off of the original listing price. 

So just to be clear - if I put my house on the market today with an asking price 10% above what I think it's really worth and then drop the price by 5% in two weeks time then in your view that's a "crash"?!?! Er, yeah, ok, keep taking those meds!

You're miss quoting me. Maybe you haven't taken you meds this morning. 

A crash can be defined as a common significant drop in prices across the board. If the demand isn't there of course prices are going to drop, mixed with the cost of living and interest rates hugely increasing, with all that in mind, we are more than likely going to be seeing the start of a housing price crash now (how deep who knows) - IN MY OPINION;  I am no economist but all I can go off is what the data is showing me on my screen from my specific search terms.

This is a forum, people can have mixed opinions and speak as they find from where they stand