Octopus Outgoing - Fixed or Agile?

Raxiel

Fingers crossed, my registration for Octopus outgoing should be completed tomorrow. I picked fixed, but was that the right choice?

I understand that during the summer, Agile was a no-brainer, but between fixed going up to 15p in September, and (AIUI) the wind blowing more in the winter and dragging the Agile price down, without a battery, things aren't as clear cut now.

I've had a look at the various charts & graphs online, and it looks like Agile has been averaging about 12p lately, with the only times above 15p being around the 4-6pm peak (no surprise) when we're not going to be generating over winter, and would self consume most or all of it even if we were.

I'm only looking at a few days though and don't really have a feel for how it trends over longer periods. I realise this is a bit of a crystal ball question, are we likely to see it beating fixed at all over the winter?

2nd_time_buyer

As things stand the output fixed rate is the highest it has ever been. However, spot gas prices have come done so my gut feeling is that there is downward pressure on the fixed rate, and it may get pulled. If you sign on to it now, they should honor it for a year.

The Agile output tariff is essentially unchanged since it was launched. And I don't see any reason for it to change going forward, if you want to switch on to it later.

Screwdriva

I signed up for the fixed rate last week and would recommend others do as well. I am on the incoming Agile (35p ceiling), so I often pay less than 0.15p to purchase electricity at current rates. 

You can switch to the Outgoing Agile tariff if prices shoot up again, unlikely to occur till wind speed slows down in April, as switching between tariffs are allowed every 28 days. 

Spies

Last month Outgoing agile averaged under the fixed rate for me.

70sbudgie

Last month for me, my average Agile export tariff was 29p/kWhr. It is one of my tasks for tomorrow to asses the latest data and see what it is looking like this month. My export has been surprisingly good for October, it is just whether my E-W panels get enough of the higher rates to bump up the average. Now the clocks have changed, I am expecting fixed to be better for me.

Edited for spelling

Magnitio

Export for me in October averaged 13.3p per kWh. With relatively low export over the next 2-3 months (especially with a battery) and the minimal difference in rates, I think I shall stick with Agile for now. I'm sure there will be better rates on calm, cold and sunny winter's days when I will have some excess to export.

Exiled_Tyke

70sbudgie said:

Last month for me, my average Agile export tariff was 29p/kWhr. It is one of my tasks for tomorrow to asses the latest data and see what it is looking like this month. My export has been surprisingly good for October, it is just whether my E-W panels get enough of the higher rates to bump up the average. Now the clocks have changed, I am expecting fixed to be better for me.

Edited for spelling

My mainly West facing system had it's second best ever October so looks like it was a sunny one all round.  As we head into the Winter  my generations and hence returns become very insignificant and so if I were on SEG I don't think it would be worth the analysis and hassle to change tariff. 

EcoScruples

I'm in that scenario where having a battery means my export from now until March/April is going to be pretty minimal so I'll stick where I'm at.

It's the incoming I'm seriously considering although I don't think it a ailable right now? Certainly not capped at 35p.
Anyway, what are peoples thoughts on how long agile incoming will be below the price cap?

Screwdriva

EcoScruples said:

Anyway, what are peoples thoughts on how long agile incoming will be below the price cap?

As long as wind blows (which it will till late Spring) and the price of natural gas stays south of £350/therm, I don't see Agile prices rising. It's been a really mild October/ Nov so far...

2nd_time_buyer

I don't have the foggyist idea of what the gas prices will be in 2 months. No one was thinking it would be as low as it is now 2 months ago. Currently, it does not seem to be wholly governed by the usual supply/demand economics. 

Magnitio

EcoScruples said:

I'm in that scenario where having a battery means my export from now until March/April is going to be pretty minimal so I'll stick where I'm at.

It's the incoming I'm seriously considering although I don't think it a ailable right now? Certainly not capped at 35p.
Anyway, what are peoples thoughts on how long agile incoming will be below the price cap?

Bought 9kWh at about 2p/kWh this morning, which will last the day with a bit of added solar. I think that's the lowest rate for a few weeks. If we have a period of very cold windless days (which often coincide during winter), it is likely to be rather different and the 35p is not a cap when prices exceed 52p/kWh.