Post EPG energy prices

Staffordian11

I'm mulling my options given the EPG now only runs until the end of March.

I'm on an EDF fix until 31 July 2024, which has now dropped to the EPG level, and as I understand it, EDF have (temporarily?) waived their £300 exit fee.

My assumption is that on 1 April 2023 the rates will return to their original figure and on that basis the cost of my gas and electricity between April 23 and the end of the fix will be around £530 more than it would be if the EPG rates were to continue.

My dilemma is whether to cancel my fix whilst the exit fees are waived and rely on whatever the capped rates from April 23 happen to be, or to persist with the fix.

So to my query...

Does anyone have any links to current thinking on UK prices going forward? I know gas wholesale prices are now far lower than they were a while ago, so I guess this will feed through into both gas and electricity rates, but I've no idea whether my current fix represents a reasonable gamble or an overpriced liability.

[Deleted User]

Staffordian11 said:

Does anyone have any links to current thinking on UK prices going forward? I know gas wholesale prices are now far lower than they were a while ago, so I guess this will feed through into both gas and electricity rates, but I've no idea whether my current fix represents a reasonable gamble or an overpriced liability.

They are still, in the main, far higher than they were a little more of a while ago, and expected to go back up.  The monitoring period for cap prices (if any sort of cap exists after April) hasn't started yet but all indications are it will be more expensive than the old October cap was going to be.

Staffordian11

Thanks, that was my assumption but with the prices falling of late and with the EPG  being in place I'd rather lost track of current thinking.

Very tempted to stick with the fix, for peace of mind.

[Deleted User]

This is the graph (ish) that people like to quote - look at how the price is dropping!  Was 300p and now less than 200p.  Unfortunately, this is only a graph of the last month.



This is the graph that people should be looking at.  Would you be confident, given what's been going on this year, that it will continue back to the boring pre-2021 trend?

Staffordian11

Those charts certainly put matters into perspective. Thanks!

Spoonie_Turtle

What's the source for that please, Sparky?

[Deleted User]

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas - UK market

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas - EU market

They're not the 'actual' traded price, but they are the national benchmark index so represent actual trades best for our need.

Spoonie_Turtle

[Deleted User] said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas - UK market

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas - EU market

Brilliant, thanks for those.

Astria

Staffordian11 said:

My assumption is that on 1 April 2023 the rates will return to their original figure and on that basis the cost of my gas and electricity between April 23 and the end of the fix will be around £530 more than it would be if the EPG rates were to continue.

Kind of a bad assumption, they will be reviewed, which means they could rise, but if the cost of energy goes down in that time, it could simply be a smaller discount and we still sit at the same value.

BUFF

https://www.cityam.com/energy-prices-will-not-return-to-normal-this-decade-warns-cornwall-insight/

Staffordian11

Astria said:

Staffordian11 said:

My assumption is that on 1 April 2023 the rates will return to their original figure and on that basis the cost of my gas and electricity between April 23 and the end of the fix will be around £530 more than it would be if the EPG rates were to continue.

Kind of a bad assumption, they will be reviewed, which means they could rise, but if the cost of energy goes down in that time, it could simply be a smaller discount and we still sit at the same value.

I'm referring to the rates EDF charge on my fix, rather than the rates the government stipulate, but it's impossible to know what the government will do, as they don't appear to know themselves.

My feeling is that they want to move away from a universal cap, though I accept that abandoning it entirely might be politically difficult.

If they choose to leave it as is, it rather goes against what Hunt proposed recently and doesn't fit with his cost cutting agenda, so I wonder if things might return to a more realistic (i.e. higher) set of prices, together with targeted help.

Or maybe offer users a percentage of their consumption at a subsided price.

But if they do continue with the present scheme, or something similar, that's fine, and I don't care if my assumption is wrong, as I'll still hopefully have my fixed tariff at a reduced rate...