Wholesale prices dropping

Spoonie_Turtle

17.65p/kWh for electricity on Tracker today, Eastern so a bit higher than most other regions.  Yesterday was ~15p and tomorrow probably will be too. 
But then last month (our first month on Tracker) spent a lot of time in the 40s and 50s so this feels like a sort of consolation.

[Deleted User]

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

Spoonie_Turtle

[Deleted User] said:

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

You can switch back to the SVT at any time, but it's then a complete gamble after that when/whether to go back onto the ToU after winter.

[Deleted User]

Spoonie_Turtle said:

[Deleted User] said:

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

You can switch back to the SVT at any time, but it's then a complete gamble after that when/whether to go back onto the ToU after winter.

That's interesting, I didn't know it was that simple.  Perhaps April when the EPG changes again (or just before) could be a good point to do it - usage will have dropped and I'm unlikely to be in the 'targeted support' group.

Spoonie_Turtle

[Deleted User] said:

Spoonie_Turtle said:

[Deleted User] said:

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

You can switch back to the SVT at any time, but it's then a complete gamble after that when/whether to go back onto the ToU after winter.

That's interesting, I didn't know it was that simple.  Perhaps April when the EPG changes again (or just before) could be a good point to do it - usage will have dropped and I'm unlikely to be in the 'targeted support' group.

Assuming you mean such a tariff with Octopus, yes.  Though of course there's also the gamble of whether high prices are a temporary peak or a sustained increase … the actual switching between tariffs is supposed to be simple though.

After the EPG sounds a very sensible time to do it.

[Deleted User]

Spoonie_Turtle said:

[Deleted User] said:

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Deleted_User said:

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

You can switch back to the SVT at any time, but it's then a complete gamble after that when/whether to go back onto the ToU after winter.

That's interesting, I didn't know it was that simple.  Perhaps April when the EPG changes again (or just before) could be a good point to do it - usage will have dropped and I'm unlikely to be in the 'targeted support' group.

Assuming you mean such a tariff with Octopus, yes.  Though of course there's also the gamble of whether high prices are a temporary peak or a sustained increase … the actual switching between tariffs is supposed to be simple though.

After the EPG sounds a very sensible time to do it.

At the moment Octopus are the only supplier I would trust to run a tariff like that.

QrizB

It's true to say that wholesale gas prices have fallen. Both the day-ahead prices at Marex and the month-or-more-ahead futures prices at TheICE are down considerably from the highs of 500+p/therm we saw during four weeks in August-September.

However, just because they've fallen doesn't mean they're cheap. They're just less expensive.

The current Ofgem cap of about 15p/kWh for gas and 52p/kWh for electricity (both prices having since been discounted by the EPG) was based on wholesale gas at roughly 300p/therm. A glance at current gas futures at TheICE will show that, while gas for November delivery is currently below 200p/therm, gas for December 2022 through to March 2024 is still in excess of 300p/therm. That's 16 straight months with gas more expensive than the price used for the October Ofgem cap.

If you feel lucky, switch to Octopus and choose their Tracker tariff (not currently available but they're promising it will be back Real Soon Now). You can then follow gas prices up and down daily, smiling when they're cheap and frowning when they're expensive. (You'll see from my signature that I'm on Gas Tracker). The latest Tracker was capped by Octopus at 30p/kWh for gas and 100p/kWh for electricity.

The EPG is, very roughly, equivalent to a wholesale gas cost of 220p/therm. I wouldn't expect to see a conventional tariff offered that's cheaper than the EPG until wholesale gas futures fall below that sort of level for the duration of the tariff offer - so 12 months for a 12-month fix.

[Deleted User]

Alnat1 said:

Once winter really sets in, prices will rise but this mild spell is very good for those of us on TOU tariffs. 

Agreed: I just need to find one of these for my garden.

Chrysalis

Deleted_User said:

I've been tempted to switch and get onto one of the ToU tariffs - I think they're the way forward - but with the new 100p cap and the volatility in the market at the moment I'm slightly worried I'd be getting stuck on a massive price across a lot of the winter.

Unless things have changed on Octopus its non committal, no exit fee, so keep an eye on it and leave when you see trends changing.

QrizB

Friday was (I think) the last day for trading November gas futures at TheICE.

Gas for November closed the month at 237p/therm, vs. 297p/therm at the start. That's a fall of 20% but (as explained above) still higher than the EPG rate.

It is showing as over 300p/therm until April 2024, and is in the range 200-300p/therm all the way out to the end of the traded market in March 2025.