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Bank of England MPC meeting November 3rd 2022 - what are your predictions and how are you preparing

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Comments

  • 0.5% is looking likely - which would be pathetic given what we’re staring in the face. It would also send sterling lower. Let’s hope not. 
  • I am hoping that with The governments more responsible approach to public finances, that the gap between base rate and fixed mortgages narrows over the coming months even with base rate hikes. 

    Where do people see fixed rates being early next year? 7%? 

    I started saving 2 months ago for when my fixed rate ends in May to cover rates of upto 8-9% which people were talking about when the disaster of Liz Truss was occurring. Anything under that is a bonus for me. I'm still saving based on that prediction (just incase! It's a crazy world)
  • L9XSS
    L9XSS Posts: 438 Forumite
    Third Anniversary 100 Posts Mortgage-free Glee! Name Dropper
    I think a 0.75% interest rate rise today but wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to go to a 1% rise. I’m ramping up pension contributions.
  • simon_or
    simon_or Posts: 890 Forumite
    500 Posts First Anniversary Name Dropper
    edited 3 November 2022 am30 7:50AM
    0.50% today and 0.50% in Dec. Or 0.75% today and 0.25% in Dec.
    Mortgage rates have already softened across the board (and swap rates have softened much more) since the Truss era and neither of the above scenarios will have much impact on nortgage rates going forward as it's all priced in.
    Of course all this is assuming things stay quiet on the political front.
    100k UK households (and thousands of renters' landlords) come off fixed rates every month and the UK corporate sector is heavily indebted (much more so than the US which is far more reliant on equity funding), so much as the BOE might want to be 'radical', their bark is always going to be much worse their bite.
  • smipsy
    smipsy Posts: 213 Forumite
    Seventh Anniversary 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    Anything less than .75 will be a blatant prop for the house prices. Anything above .75 would be going in the right direction, but would hurt house prices even more, so won't happen in this country.

    Therefore, .75 is a corner BoE is backed into
  • all the central banks are now in a race to keep up with the FED

    and Jay powell wants to be seen as hard on inflation as Paul volker who raised them to 20%

    he thinks rightly that you need to kill inflation fast rather than go slow and get stuck in stagflation

    so a minimum of 0.75% and really 1% is needed
  • 0.75% it is.

    Now I want to see how this effects mortgage rates as supposedly this rate rise was mostly already priced in for a while
  • Tracker rates will go up, discount SVRs might (eventually) go up. I don't see any noticeable impact on fixed rates given how far swap rates have fallen since Truss. Let's see.
  • Serve_the_Servants
    Serve_the_Servants Posts: 47 Forumite
    10 Posts
    edited 3 November 2022 pm30 12:31PM
    Hilariously no mention again of their mindless money printing. Funny that.

    Always positioning themselves as the rescuers we should be grateful to, never the culprits. 



  • ariarnia
    ariarnia Posts: 4,225 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    can someone who understands these things explain what the bank meant when they said we were in the longest recession since records have been kept? i thought a recession was two quarters (so 6 months) of gdp reducing but the ons says growth in the last quarter was 0.2% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2022#headline-gdp-figures

    am i looking at the wrong thing or are the bank of england using a different meaning of recession?
    Almost everything will work again if you unplug it for a few minutes, including you. Anne Lamott

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