Bank of England MPC meeting November 3rd 2022 - what are your predictions and how are you preparing

Aberdeenangarse

ariarnia said:

can someone who understands these things explain what the bank meant when they said we were in the longest recession since records have been kept? i thought a recession was two quarters (so 6 months) of gdp reducing but the ons says growth in the last quarter was 0.2% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2022#headline-gdp-figures

am i looking at the wrong thing or are the bank of england using a different meaning of recession?

BoE are predicting that we’re already in a recession in the current quarter, and are predicting we’ll be in a recession through all of next year and even beyond.

Serve_the_Servants

Yes the recession probably won’t end until 2024/25 and unemployment will go up due to the effect on businesses etc. 

Serve_the_Servants

Nothing to do with the colossal monetary supply you’ve expanded to ridiculous proportions then Andrew? 

lmitchell

As expected, BoE's latest comments suggest that the peak in bank rate will be considerably lower than the markets' 5% prediction. In fact, charts show that we could end up with DEFLATION in end of 2024 in some scenarios if bank rate rises to the markets' current trajectory.

I think we'll see another 0.5% rise in Dec and then a couple of 0.25% rises in early 2023 before things are held to breathe for a while.

simon_or

No one really knows anything about 6 months down the line let alone the next 2-3 years. The BOE's predictions (like most other people) on inflation and rates have been wrong time and again so take whatever they (or other forecasters) say with a large pinch of uncertainty.

zAndy1

L9XSS said:

I think a 0.75% interest rate rise today but wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to go to a 1% rise. I’m ramping up pension contributions.

What's the reasoning behind ramping up pension contributions if you don't mind me asking? The markets are going to be extremely volatile for a while yet so any investments may well fall and potentially quite significantly over the next year or two. Or do you think the markets are pretty much bottomed out and you want to buy fund units now while they're low?

Strummer22

Can anyone explain to me the BBC's illustrations of the effect on mortgage rates for those on tracker or standard variable mortgages? To quote https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57764601

"The increase in the Bank rate from 2.25% to 3% means those on a typical tracker mortgage will pay about £73.50 more a month. Those on standard variable rate mortgages face a £46 jump.

This comes on top of increases following the previous recent rate rises. Compared with pre-December 2021, average tracker mortgage customers will be paying about £284 more a month, and variable mortgage holders about £179 more."

The article doesn't give any of the assumptions behind these figures, so they are about as useful as a saying there's a £2,500 energy price cap (i.e., as useful as a chocolate teapot). Why do they think those on variable rate will have less of an increase than those on a tracker? Other articles I've seen say those on variable rates don't know what will happen and it depends what the lender decides to do, which is much more accurate.

Serve_the_Servants

5 day decline in the pound. I thought someone said we were in safe hands now? 🤭

xeny

zAndy1 said:

L9XSS said:

I think a 0.75% interest rate rise today but wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to go to a 1% rise. I’m ramping up pension contributions.

What's the reasoning behind ramping up pension contributions if you don't mind me asking? The markets are going to be extremely volatile for a while yet so any investments may well fall and potentially quite significantly over the next year or two. Or do you think the markets are pretty much bottomed out and you want to buy fund units now while they're low?

When there's clear site of a recovery, share prices are likely to head up fast. Hence you accept the uncertainty of putting money in now to (hopefully) reap the benefit later. Greedy when others are fearful and vice versa

OhWow

Serve_the_Servants said:

Nothing to do with the colossal monetary supply you’ve expanded to ridiculous proportions then Andrew? 

And nothing to do with the BoE not taking action on the IMFs warning last year?

IMF warns Bank of England not to be too slow to raise interest rates

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imf-warns-bank-england-against-inaction-inflation-2021-12-14/