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[Deleted User]

           

adindas

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

bostonerimus

In 2008/2009 I kept an eye on my equity to bond ratio and if it deviated by +/-5% from 60/40 I rebalanced. It worked out ok. I see no reason not to do the same now. As the only bonds I have now are in a multi-asset fund, they will automatically rebalance.

masonic

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

Not everyone is able to invest over a sufficiently long time horizon. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to be 100% equities. Nobody reading this forum is able to make investments on the same preferential terms as a billionaire investor. Savings accounts with similar access terms have lower returns than gilts at the moment. Locking your money away in a normal savings account for several years to get better rates could be considered higher risk, as you would be unable to access the money during the term if your circumstances changed. Regular savings accounts tend to have a low monthly deposit limit, so are unsuitable for larger sums. Fixed rate ISAs are a sort of half way house, as you can access the money subject to a fixed penalty (even if cashing in weeks before maturity), but these terms are likely to be less attractive than a short-dated gilt where the potential loss on selling prior to maturity tends to zero the closer you get to holding to term.

Type_45

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Surely it's easier to just hold VLS80 and then just forget about it.

Excluding the 5% cash component of your portfolio, are you outperforming VLS80 over any time-period?  If so, by what amount?

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F00000MLUQ&tab=1 

adindas

masonic said:

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

Not everyone is able to invest over a sufficiently long time horizon. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to be 100% equities. Nobody reading this forum is able to make investments on the same preferential terms as a billionaire investor. Savings accounts with similar access terms have lower returns than gilts at the moment. Locking your money away in a normal savings account for several years to get better rates could be considered higher risk, as you would be unable to access the money during the term if your circumstances changed. Regular savings accounts tend to have a low monthly deposit limit, so are unsuitable for larger sums. Fixed rate ISAs are a sort of half way house, as you can access the money subject to a fixed penalty (even if cashing in weeks before maturity), but these terms are likely to be less attractive than a short-dated gilt where the potential loss on selling prior to maturity tends to zero the closer you get to holding to term.

How  much cash in average an investor has. Does anyone have over 1 million in cash ?. 
You could get easy access saving account paying 2.75% that could easily be deployed an a smaler chunks (DCA/Dripffeed) at anytime to equity. There are a few RSA account paying 5%. reasonable number saving account are paying You could have more than £15k+ paying 5% interest. Resonable number of  saving accounts are paying 4%pa 1 year fixed rate. How much yields do people get in their bond investments, not to mention decreasing in value. Want to hear the hard lessons from you guys. Like a few people who were suggesting people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds lump sum early this year, while they themselves have never done that. When you beg a difference informing a DCA strategy, you would got heavy attacked from the same group of people as that is "timing the market". When people are not using their own money it is easy to tell other people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds.

Unless you are a multi millaionaire, billionaire, holding cash over one million does not make sense for ordinary retail investors, here on MSE people who call themselves as investors. But my undstanding is that a multi millaionaire, billionaire, do not visit this MSE.

Type_45

adindas said:

masonic said:

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

Not everyone is able to invest over a sufficiently long time horizon. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to be 100% equities. Nobody reading this forum is able to make investments on the same preferential terms as a billionaire investor. Savings accounts with similar access terms have lower returns than gilts at the moment. Locking your money away in a normal savings account for several years to get better rates could be considered higher risk, as you would be unable to access the money during the term if your circumstances changed. Regular savings accounts tend to have a low monthly deposit limit, so are unsuitable for larger sums. Fixed rate ISAs are a sort of half way house, as you can access the money subject to a fixed penalty (even if cashing in weeks before maturity), but these terms are likely to be less attractive than a short-dated gilt where the potential loss on selling prior to maturity tends to zero the closer you get to holding to term.

How  much cash in average investor have. Does anyone have over 1 million in cash ?. 
You could get easy access saving account paying 2.75% that could easily be deployed an a smaler chunks (DCA/Dripffeed) at anytime to equity. There are a few RSA account paying 5%. You could have more than £15k+ paying 5% interest. How much yields do people get in their bond investment, not to mention decreasing in value. Want to hear the hard lessons from you guys. Like a fewpeople who are suggesting people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds lump sum early this year. While they themselves have never done that. When you beg a difference informing a DCA strategy, you got heavy attacks from the same group of people.
Holding cash over one million does not make sense for ordinary retail investors, people who call themselves as investors.

Which exact asset class would have made more sense to hold £1m in 2022?  Cash has outperformed most investors' portfolios.

Malthusian

Type_45 said:

Which exact asset class would have made more sense to hold £1m in 2022?  Cash has outperformed most investors' portfolios.

And energy ETFs have outperformed cash, so why would anyone hold money in cash when they could put it in energy ETFs?
"But short-term past performance is" - adadadadadada, not a valid answer because "short-term past performance in 2022" is your argument for why it makes sense to dump £1 million in cash. (Presuming you're not an ultra-HNW investor for whom one million is walking around money.)

Type_45

Arron Banks is worth a few bob. He's a fan of gold. 

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

masonic said:

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

Not everyone is able to invest over a sufficiently long time horizon. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to be 100% equities. Nobody reading this forum is able to make investments on the same preferential terms as a billionaire investor. Savings accounts with similar access terms have lower returns than gilts at the moment. Locking your money away in a normal savings account for several years to get better rates could be considered higher risk, as you would be unable to access the money during the term if your circumstances changed. Regular savings accounts tend to have a low monthly deposit limit, so are unsuitable for larger sums. Fixed rate ISAs are a sort of half way house, as you can access the money subject to a fixed penalty (even if cashing in weeks before maturity), but these terms are likely to be less attractive than a short-dated gilt where the potential loss on selling prior to maturity tends to zero the closer you get to holding to term.

How  much cash in average investor have. Does anyone have over 1 million in cash ?. 
You could get easy access saving account paying 2.75% that could easily be deployed an a smaler chunks (DCA/Dripffeed) at anytime to equity. There are a few RSA account paying 5%. You could have more than £15k+ paying 5% interest. How much yields do people get in their bond investment, not to mention decreasing in value. Want to hear the hard lessons from you guys. Like a fewpeople who are suggesting people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds lump sum early this year. While they themselves have never done that. When you beg a difference informing a DCA strategy, you got heavy attacks from the same group of people.
Holding cash over one million does not make sense for ordinary retail investors, people who call themselves as investors.

Which exact asset class would have made more sense to hold £1m in 2022?  Cash has outperformed most investors' portfolios.

Yes, I totally agree with you for people who have a crystal ball, who are 100% sure that the stock market will crash at 80% by the end of this year, people who know exactly where the bottom is. I fully believe many people will be with you if they ever believe that.

People who use technical analysys, fundamental analysys, watching the news rgularly might play a probability game; but that probability has never been 100%.

That will be an easy way for everyone to become an instant  billionaire. Wait that moment and you strike at that particular moment with extreme leverage and in a few years you will become a billionaire.

Have you ever heard what is the so called missing the best days In the stock market and their impact??

masonic

adindas said:

masonic said:

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

April is my preferred time to rebalance, but I have a look each quarter (and perhaps use spare cash in my SIPP to top up what's underweight). The general asset classes were near enough to targets this April, so I didn't do any rebalancing between equities vs bonds vs cash then; but this month they were too far out, so I've just (over the last week or so) been rebalancing from equities to bonds!

Coincidentally, that's the same thing I did in my last top-level rebalance, 18 months ago: see Time to sell equities and buy bonds? ... This is not unusual, in the sense that equities are usually expected to outperform bonds. What is unusual is that equities are down over the last 18 months, but bonds are down a lot more. Though in my case, with 75% equities + 20% bonds + 5% cash, although bonds have fallen a larger percentage, equities have lost me a bit more in £, because I have more of them.

Perhaps I made a mistake in holding so many bonds, but this is clearly not the time to change strategy: at lower prices, they now have higher expected returns. I know some posters on here have been avoiding bonds for a while. A quick search showed that the term "Bondpocalypse" was used online as early as 2010!

Equity will always outperform bond in the long run. Not many (if any) of the proven billionaire investors have ever suggested bonds as a good investment. So draw your conclusion.
Retail investor have advantage as they could put some percentage of their money into high interest saving accounts, Regular saving accounts, which is functioning like Bond but lower risk.

Not everyone is able to invest over a sufficiently long time horizon. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to be 100% equities. Nobody reading this forum is able to make investments on the same preferential terms as a billionaire investor. Savings accounts with similar access terms have lower returns than gilts at the moment. Locking your money away in a normal savings account for several years to get better rates could be considered higher risk, as you would be unable to access the money during the term if your circumstances changed. Regular savings accounts tend to have a low monthly deposit limit, so are unsuitable for larger sums. Fixed rate ISAs are a sort of half way house, as you can access the money subject to a fixed penalty (even if cashing in weeks before maturity), but these terms are likely to be less attractive than a short-dated gilt where the potential loss on selling prior to maturity tends to zero the closer you get to holding to term.

How  much cash in average an investor has. Does anyone have over 1 million in cash ?.

Hopefully not, but I fail to see the relevance when you are advocating people invest in cash rather than bonds. I doubt anyone here has £1m invested in bonds.

adindas said:

You could get easy access saving account paying 2.75% that could easily be deployed an a smaler chunks (DCA/Dripffeed) at anytime to equity.

This has nothing to do with the subject of this discussion (investing in bonds). Someone who is already invested in equities up to their risk tolerance doesn't need to buy more equities. The OP is considering selling equities in order to buy bonds.

adindas said:

There are a few RSA account paying 5%. reasonable number saving account are paying You could have more than £15k+ paying 5% interest.

Lloyds has one with a £400 per month deposit limit (after 12 months matures and you have to open a new one with £400), and Natwest has one with a £1000 balance limit. Have I missed any?

I used to like regular savers, but the rates on offer are only a little better than a 1 year fix.

adindas said:

Resonable number of  saving accounts are paying 4%pa 1 year fixed rate. How much yields do people get in their bond investments, not to mention decreasing in value.

The gilts people have been interested in pay >4% including a tax free capital gain. There are also index linked gilts, which can now be bought for a positive real return based on RPI (making them a good alternative to currently unavailable, and CPI linked, Index Linked Savings Certificates). That return is guaranteed if you hold to maturity, but you can sell at any time. They can be held in a SIPP or S&S ISA. If you were to sell early you stand a good chance of being better off than if you used a fixed cash ISA with a penalty, and clearly better off than a normal fixed savings account where your provider would refuse to let you access early. There's nothing wrong with using cash as part of a low risk portfolio allocation, but it would be wrong to say cash should replace bonds in all portfolios, just as much as it would be wrong to say bond investors should just sell up and buy equities.

adindas said:

Want to hear the hard lessons from you guys. Like a few people who were suggesting people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds lump sum early this year, while they themselves have never done that.

Who advised anyone to "throw a few hundred thousands pounds lump sum" into bonds early this year? Nobody, I suspect. I certainly had no interest in bonds at that time and was one of many voices warning what would happen to bond funds as interest rates rose.

adindas said:

When you beg a difference informing a DCA strategy, you would got heavy attacked from the same group of people as that is "timing the market". When people are not using their own money it is easy to tell other people to throw a few hundred thousands pounds.

It's your repeated flawed arguments in favour of DCA that get discredited, because they don't stand up to scrutiny. That isn't a personal attack, it is merely highlighting the flaws of a dubious strategy. Most people DCA out of their monthly income, and it is not something they have any choice about.

What may attract a little hostility is hijacking a discussion about bonds and rebalancing to throw in irrelevant curve-balls such as "1 million in cash", "billionaire investors" and "DCA strategy".