BOE and a recession.

mi-key

Plus if you look at the wholesale prices for gas, they have dropped a lot in the past couple of weeks ( lowest level since June ). European reserves are pretty much full, so there is no desperation to buy, so the wholesalers can't sell at inflated prices.

Hopefully this will filter through to the consumers soon and ease things ( I think this may have had quite a bit to do with the governments change in their energy support plans ) 

sevenhills

Tories were absolutely correct to employ a growth strategy.  It was wrongly targeted and very badly delivered.  But this anti-growth strategy will be hopeless

Except that the 'growth strategy' was only a growth in spending to fuel consumer spending, which went against the BoE strategy.
We have record low unemployment, yet not record GDP.

Aberdeenangarse

mi-key said:

Plus if you look at the wholesale prices for gas, they have dropped a lot in the past couple of weeks ( lowest level since June ). European reserves are pretty much full, so there is no desperation to buy, so the wholesalers can't sell at inflated prices.

Hopefully this will filter through to the consumers soon and ease things ( I think this may have had quite a bit to do with the governments change in their energy support plans ) 

It’s pointless trying to predict wholesale gas prices. 

With the removal of the price cap, next April, it could spike inflation even higher!

TonyTeacake

Aberdeenangarse said:

mi-key said:

Plus if you look at the wholesale prices for gas, they have dropped a lot in the past couple of weeks ( lowest level since June ). European reserves are pretty much full, so there is no desperation to buy, so the wholesalers can't sell at inflated prices.

Hopefully this will filter through to the consumers soon and ease things ( I think this may have had quite a bit to do with the governments change in their energy support plans ) 

It’s pointless trying to predict wholesale gas prices. 

With the removal of the price cap, next April, it could spike inflation even higher!

I have always said from the beginning of the year inflation is going to go higher and I still dont believe is going to come down anytime soon.

All the politicians and many on here keep blaming Putin for high inflation. Inflation was rising dangerously way before he invaded Ukraine. You never hear the politicians blaming all the lockdowns and sending the money printers into overdrive for  all this.

ElwoodBlues

Anyone else think it's a bit daft that the BoE's remit for setting interest rates is simply to target 2% inflation? Surely they should be looking at the wider picture?

Yes inflation is currently high, but it's mostly being driven by factors external to the UK economy (global energy prices). Increasing the UK interest rate has practically no influence over global prices. And oil and gas has a highly inelastic demand - doesn't matter what it costs, we all still need to fuel our cars and heat our homes.

Similar over the last decade - they kept rates too low because they were purely concerned with trying to keep inflation up at 2%. If they'd crept rates up over that time there would have been somewhere to go when covid hit, and the housing market wouldn't have spiraled out of control.

Aberdeenangarse

Inflation now at 10.1% It looks like the BoE will be making a fairly hefty increase in the base rate next month.

TonyTeacake

Inflation back into double digits and a potential 1% hike in interest rates at the next BOE meeting.

I think we all need to start preparing for some real tough economic times as inflation keeps spiraling and interest rates are going to be much higher than a lot of people on here are anticipating.

brownbagsFTB

I think we all need to start preparing for some real tough economic times as inflation keeps spiraling and interest rates are going to be much higher than a lot of people on here are anticipating.

Do you have a source for this info or is it just speculation on your part? I thought it was a given that there would be a steep rise in BoE rates in November, Andrew Bailey said as much last week and the markets are prepared for rises of up to 5.25% by next year. So has anything actually changed? 

Please be mindful of posting doomsday claims on here if there isn’t basis as there are a lot of worried people at the moment. 

Tatters26

brownbagsFTB said:

Please be mindful of posting doomsday claims on here if there isn’t basis as there are a lot of worried people at the moment. 

I actually said to my partner today to stop reading this forum, hypocritically I know!

There are way too many sofa experts on here, and I genuinely think there should be a reminder at the top of the screen around well-being of people and speculating so negatively. 

propertyhunter

Yes let's not dooms monger. It's all priced in - the current bank rate is 2.25% and mortgages at 2-year fixes are 5-6%. Normally there's a 1-1.5% difference between the two for the best mortgage deals, so you can see that the banks have accounted for it already.