Multi Asset 60/40

InvesterJones

Kendall80 said:

Picking start/end dates I know but i'm only 7% up in 7 years to date - a real terms decrease.

7% annualised or 7% total? VLS60 is up about 45% in 7 years, with inflation only about 23% in the same time period. Though I guess if you've contributed most of the funds more recently then the return will be lower (but so will the inflation - you'd have had to invest only very recently to return a real terms decrease I'd have thought?)

P933alilli

My VLS60 is -11.5% since i opened it at the end of january. Add on inflation and it another -8% or so. Ive stopped contributing. I could contribute more to bring the average unit cost down but i'm thinking i should have gone in VLS100. Its for ten years!

Audaxer

InvesterJones said:

Kendall80 said:

Picking start/end dates I know but i'm only 7% up in 7 years to date - a real terms decrease.

7% annualised or 7% total? VLS60 is up about 45% in 7 years, with inflation only about 23% in the same time period. Though I guess if you've contributed most of the funds more recently then the return will be lower (but so will the inflation - you'd have had to invest only very recently to return a real terms decrease I'd have thought?)

VLS60 is now only up 3.52% annualised over the last 5 years and 6.53% annualised over the last 10 years. 

At the end of 2020 VLS60 over the previous 5 years from then (2015 to 2020) it had been 9.12% annualised.

JohnWinder

Collyflower1 said:

…but i'm thinking i should have gone in VLS100. Its for ten years!

What significance are you attributing to ‘ten years!’?

coastline

Not just the UK 60/40's struggling in the USA the typical fund is having its worst YTD in 100 years. Note annual performance is around 80/20 up so realistically next year should be better ?

FfCzPxwXwAA2QPg (900×735) (twimg.com)

Set the chart to 10 years see the effects on bonds.

Vanguard U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged Accumulation summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

A long-term view of UK base rates and inflation. Took around 30 years to hit a peak and another 30 years to fall to near zero. As shock inflation soared after covid base rates have followed and still a way to go. It's the pace of increase which has been dramatic.

base-rates-vs-inflation.jpg (727×514) (netdna-ssl.com)

GazzaBloom

^^^ @coastline those charts are quite an eye-opener aren't they?


I never thought I would see a day when a "reduced risk" portfolio of stocks/bonds would suffer like it has this year, it appears to be truly exceptional. For cautious investors, that chose a balanced portfolio and have become used to the steady nature of performance over the last 10 years, this year must be quite a shocker.

JohnWinder

Not just the UK 60/40's struggling in the USA the typical fund is having its worst YTD in 100 years. Note annual performance is around 80/20 up so realistically next year should be better ?

FfCzPxwXwAA2QPg (900×735) (twimg.com)

That chart show us the annual performances of such a fund and compares it with this year’s YTD. It compares apples with part of an apple. Waiting until December 31 would have had validity, but a recovery might have occurred by then and spoiled the story. Or it could have compared this year’s YTD with every other years’ ‘year to mid-October’, and that would have been similarly fatuous.

_pete_

GazzaBloom said:

^^^ @coastline those charts are quite an eye-opener aren't they?


I never thought I would see a day when a "reduced risk" portfolio of stocks/bonds would suffer like it has this year, it appears to be truly exceptional. For cautious investors, that chose a balanced portfolio and have become used to the steady nature of performance over the last 10 years, this year must be quite a shocker.

It seems to me that all types of investments have lurched from one crisis to another over the past 15 years.  We had the 2008 financial meltdown end-of-the-world crisis, then the 2020 covid end-of-the-world crisis, now we've got the 2022 energy etc end-of-the-world-crisis.  

GazzaBloom

JohnWinder said:

Not just the UK 60/40's struggling in the USA the typical fund is having its worst YTD in 100 years. Note annual performance is around 80/20 up so realistically next year should be better ?

FfCzPxwXwAA2QPg (900×735) (twimg.com)

That chart show us the annual performances of such a fund and compares it with this year’s YTD. It compares apples with part of an apple. Waiting until December 31 would have had validity, but a recovery might have occurred by then and spoiled the story. Or it could have compared this year’s YTD with every other years’ ‘year to mid-October’, and that would have been similarly fatuous.

Year-end figures may be worse...who knows?

P933alilli

JohnWinder said:

Collyflower1 said:

…but i'm thinking i should have gone in VLS100. Its for ten years!

What significance are you attributing to ‘ten years!’?

Hopefully to give time for the fund to smooth out volatility and keep up with inflation. Maybe too optimistic and should be left for 15? I'm 60 though so i may not make it!