Yet another Solar installation quote post!

QrizB

henleygoldnet said:

I have a quote (can only get one around here!) and have been trying to get payback period under 13 years. The papers have been quoting 5 and I couldn't work out how. I see from this above how they have done it. It assumes generation of far more than you use. My consumption is all used by me apart from a small amount in two summer months, so next to nothing coming from export.

Using it is more beneficial than exporting it. Calculations where you use it, rather than export it, generally give lower payback periods.

Magnitio

QrizB said:

henleygoldnet said:

I have a quote (can only get one around here!) and have been trying to get payback period under 13 years. The papers have been quoting 5 and I couldn't work out how. I see from this above how they have done it. It assumes generation of far more than you use. My consumption is all used by me apart from a small amount in two summer months, so next to nothing coming from export.

Using it is more beneficial than exporting it. Calculations where you use it, rather than export it, generally give lower payback periods.

With export prices in recent months on Octopus Agile, that's not always the case. Minimising use and maximising export can be more beneficial.

Screwdriva

Magnitio said:

With export prices in recent months on Octopus Agile, that's not always the case. Minimising use and maximising export can be more beneficial.

Spot on! Several battery advocates are in denial about the change in the economics of exporting lately. While there are always unknowns, for now, Agile Outgoing customers benefit from average tariffs well in excess of .20p per kWh.

QrizB

Screwdriva said:

Magnitio said:

With export prices in recent months on Octopus Agile, that's not always the case. Minimising use and maximising export can be more beneficial.

Spot on! Several battery advocates are in denial about the change in the economics of exporting lately. While there are always unknowns, for now, Agile Outgoing customers benefit from average tariffs well in excess of .20p per kWh.

Not wishing to rain on anyone's parade, but basing a 10-year-plus investment decision on a peculiar condition of the market that has lasted barely 12 months is a bold choice.

uk1

Screwdriva said:

Magnitio said:

With export prices in recent months on Octopus Agile, that's not always the case. Minimising use and maximising export can be more beneficial.

Spot on! Several battery advocates are in denial about the change in the economics of exporting lately. While there are always unknowns, for now, Agile Outgoing customers benefit from average tariffs well in excess of .20p per kWh.

I’m not sure you have fully understood the full discussion.  

A perfectly rational view of “the battery” is that during the months when PV output is inadequate then the possibility of off-peak battery charging is a potential advantage and has a viable place in the consideration. So on days that export is available and the price is right, then you export.  On those days when you aren’t producing enough then you charge at cheap rates.  It sounds rational to me.  

Both sides of the battery discussion cannot base their decision on certainties. It’s about instinct and risk assessments and the different sets of considerations that different people find most important.

Screwdriva

QrizB said

Not wishing to rain on anyone's parade, but basing a 10-year-plus investment decision on a peculiar condition of the market that has lasted barely 12 months is a bold choice.

It's is exactly because the battery is a significant 10 year plus investment that I would prefer that potential purchasers consider all inputs to their decision as they exist today, not an outdated viewpoint from a less volatile time.

Said another way, if Outgoing Agile's export prices somehow crash, one can always add on a newer generation, more capable battery a year or two later, while benefitting from disproportionately high export tariffs of the foreseeable future. However, if the inflationary trend continues and export of solar continues to be rewarding, the potential battery owner would have spent significant upwards of £5K for an add on that may never return its original investment. And for some buyers, a battery is all about return on investment. 

uk1 said:

I’m not sure you have fully understood the full discussion.  

A perfectly rational view of “the battery” is that during the months when PV output is inadequate then the possibility of off-peak battery charging is a potential advantage and has a viable place in the consideration. So on days that export is available and the price is right, then you export.  On those days when you aren’t producing enough then you charge at cheap rates.  It sounds rational to me.  

Both sides of the battery discussion cannot base their decision on certainties. It’s about instinct and risk assessments and the different sets of considerations that different people find most important.

From your post, I'm not certain you have understood the full discussion. You can export on Outgoing Agile OR benefit from a cheap, battery charging nighttime tariff, but not both. 

Alnat1

I export on Outgoing Agile but, as I have a battery, I filled it up early this morning 3am-5am when the Agile tariff was 14/15p. I think I can sometimes benefit from both

ABrass

Higher export rates do reduce the business case for batteries. But if you look at the actual metric that matters: the delta between buying price and sale price is what determines the best choice.

In a world of 20p electricity and 5p export SEG batteries are roughly an equal investment to a world of 35p and export prices of 20p (the last years agile rate average). Or in other words, batteries are as good or better than they have been.

The agile export price graphs are quite telling. Even now the duck curve is visible in the export rates. Highest early morning and then evening but dropping low during the early afternoon when solar export is highest (as everyone with and without batteries is exporting then too).

Solar panel installation rates are going through the roof (pun intended). The duck cannot be denied.

QrizB

Screwdriva said:

QrizB said

Not wishing to rain on anyone's parade, but basing a 10-year-plus investment decision on a peculiar condition of the market that has lasted barely 12 months is a bold choice.

It's is exactly because the battery is a significant 10 year plus investment that I would prefer that potential purchasers consider all inputs to their decision as they exist today, not an outdated viewpoint from a less volatile time.

That's magical thinking.

Said another way, if Outgoing Agile's export prices somehow crash, one can always add on a newer generation, more capable battery a year or two later, while benefitting from disproportionately high export tariffs of the foreseeable future.

Your "foreseeable future" is weeks or months, not years. And looking at your link, even today exporting at 15-20p/kWh is less beneficial than consuming it yourself as a replacement for 28p/kWh (soon to be 34p/kWh).

Screwdriva

QrizB said:

Your "foreseeable future" is weeks or months, not years. And looking at your link, even today exporting at 15-20p/kWh is less beneficial than consuming it yourself as a replacement for 28p/kWh (soon to be 34p/kWh).

I'm not sure anyone on here is gifted enough to predict energy timelines but the trend isn't looking very good for your argument. Neither is excluding the massive upfront cost of the battery purchase when sharing the difference between purchase and export tariffs. 

Sorry to share, we haven't been paid .15p per kWh (as a daily average) since June if not longer. It's almost always been upwards of .20p per kWh, sometimes nearly twice that.