OFGEM kWh calculation for electricity and it's over strong track of gas whole sale prices

[Deleted User]

You might find this interesting then - it's the projects in the three allocation round auctions for CfD contracts by planned year of first output (2021 data).


And here is the cumulative chart of all CfD projects - you can see the new nuclear station coming in yellow on the right hand side.  Looks to me like about 4GW of wind capacity with these contracts at the moment, most of which is offshore (and therefore newer).  Based on DUKES (the official statistics) there is about 12 GW of wind capacity in the system - so about 1/3 of it is on CfD.

chris_n

Thanks again, there is a lot more than 12GW of wind on the grid though, National Grid ESO has the record at 19.5GW
 https://mobile.twitter.com/NationalGridESO/status/1487428593596739589

[Deleted User]

Yes, there is, but as the charts were 2021 I took the 2021 statistics - should have noted that against the number 

Even saying that, there was more at that time, but DUKES tends to under-estimate the smaller wind farms connected 'lower down' in the system by a substantial amount - that underestimation caused some big problems the last couple of times we nearly blacked out the grid.

chris_n

Care to respond to the rest of my previous post?

The following quote says to me that the rest of the market is broadly following the cost of gas powered generation. The sceptic in me also wonders why there has been constant generation with inefficient (expensive) Open Cycle gas turbines for the last few days despite constant net export to Europe. 

' with gas, old nuclear and old wind on traditional contracts.  Old wind is making quite a lot of money at the moment on some contracts.  Up front fixed prices don't mean years in advance, it can be a few days or hours in advance - these prices track but are not the same as the spot price.'

[Deleted User]

chris_n said:

Care to respond to the rest of my previous post?

The following quote says to me that the rest of the market is broadly following the cost of gas powered generation. The sceptic in me also wonders why there has been constant generation with inefficient (expensive) Open Cycle gas turbines for the last few days despite constant net export to Europe. 

' with gas, old nuclear and old wind on traditional contracts.  Old wind is making quite a lot of money at the moment on some contracts.  Up front fixed prices don't mean years in advance, it can be a few days or hours in advance - these prices track but are not the same as the spot price.'

In the last few days, our day-ahead wholesale prices have been consistently lower than the prices in either France, Belgium or Norway.  Looking very quickly at the half-hourly outputs of the OCGTs (not that many have been running really, in the low hundreds of MW), it broadly agrees with the timing of the biggest differential prices between us and the continent.

The market will also tend towards the higher end of acceptable prices as each half-hourly output can be re-sold up to 5 minutes before the start of the period, so as traders firm their positions then parcels which were cheaper at the start are sold on.

To get you much better answers, I would have to dig out complete transparency records for each bidding unit and that isn't a simple task.

Hellem

Than you all for these valuable contributions notably for SparGrad particularly "complete transparency records for each bidding unit" Or to put it simply or seemingly price capping largely based on spot pricing from the distributers (or sometimes referred to as billing companies) leaving energy generators apparently at total liberty to fix prices at their desire. My conclusion is that the regulator's working does not achieve the competitive market place it promised. Thank got at least the EU takes measures against profiteering.
Other concerns in the development of the UK energy supply markets is the lack of grid level electricity storage. Renewables will never fill a significant role in the energy market without storage. Seeing the NSWales success grid level battery Mega pack installation: installed 4 years ago, stopped the construction of a new gas peaker plant, investment was recovered in the first 2 years of operation. They are now establishing Virtual Peaker Plant by grouping individual household battery packs to do the same.
Hope that updating of energy industry will be urgently reviewed and updated both on replacing peaker plants and price capping.    

wrf12345

"They are now establishing Virtual Peaker Plant by grouping individual household battery packs to do the same."
Love to see them do that in the UK and NOT paying the going rate for electricity to the consumer (as they get away with solar panels)... 

Hellem

wrf12345 said:

"They are now establishing Virtual Peaker Plant by grouping individual household battery packs to do the same."
Love to see them do that in the UK and NOT paying the going rate for electricity to the consumer (as they get away with solar panels)... 

Virtual Peaker Plant participants report a $100 to $150 (!!) monthly income. It's tesla AutoBidder software that run's this selling early evening peak time and charging Powerwall  (and car) early morning. Don't see UK regulator interfering providing that the "plant" is big enough.