Energy price cap freeze on a fixed tariff

Ultrasonic

spot1034 said:

Joyful said:

nicol2034 said:

It seems a possibility that Liz Truss will freeze the energy price cap, I jumped on Utility Warehouses £2950 tarrif a few weeks ago and I am concerned now that this has been a mistake and I will effectively be £1000 worse off. Anybody got any advice? Many thanks

Nicol We are being advised that you will not be worse off. If after Thursdays announcement the variable tariff is better, you will be able to move to it without any penalties. We just have to wait to see what transpires first.

Except that the poster is already worse off having overpaid relative to the present SVT in good faith, assuming that this overpayment would be offset by a saving after Oct 1st.

Whilst true, this is something that personally I don't think it would be reasonable to expect government compensation for. Bear in mind that any overpayment will have been for a period when heating use will have been zero for the vast majority and so cost differences won't be huge.

QrizB

Chrysalis said:

However my mistake is I didnt take into account the SC barely moved so the unit rate increase would be higher than 80%.  For the same reason my 27% was done wrong.  I cant be bothered to do it again taking zero usage costs into account so just going to accept your 11p.
my 32-33p is probably also wrong for electric but someond calculated close to 35p which is probably the right figure for that.

11p/kWh for gas, 35p/kWh for electricity and a combined standing charge of £270 would work out as a cap of ~£2600, so not far off the mark.

[Deleted User]

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Zaul22 said:

Sorry if this has already been answered somewhere else in this massive thread, but is Truss expected to cap the unit rates just like Ofgem, or cap the total bill so for people paying £1200 ish on the 28p rate it would still be a massive increase?

Cap the unit rates to make the 'average user' cost £2500.  To something around 11p for gas and 35p for electricity if my maths was correct.

Its a just under 27% increase, so gas should be nearer to 9p.

That's not how the cap works, so I don't believe you.

How does it work then?

;

At the moment, 

I dont see anything after moment is blank.  I just did the maths on the already announced figures though and interesting that both Electric and Gas go up by more than 80% from April to October.

However my mistake is I didnt take into account the SC barely moved so the unit rate increase would be higher than 80%.  For the same reason my 27% was done wrong.  I cant be bothered to do it again taking zero usage costs into account so just going to accept your 11p.

my 32-33p is probably also wrong for electric but someond calculated close to 35p which is probably the right figure for that.

@Chrysalis - yes, the post fired early while I was still filling it in!  Sorry about that.

I hope my maths is understandable to you.  Interestingly, if I assume the cap is evenly split £1250 for each fuel, and standing charges stay at the October cap level, I get the gas unit cost to be about 9.6p per kWh.  I previously assumed the gas cap would be more than half of the £2500, because it is more than half of the existing calculation, but there's no reason my assumption is better than yours.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79465302#Comment_79465302

MWT

[Deleted User] said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Zaul22 said:

Sorry if this has already been answered somewhere else in this massive thread, but is Truss expected to cap the unit rates just like Ofgem, or cap the total bill so for people paying £1200 ish on the 28p rate it would still be a massive increase?

Cap the unit rates to make the 'average user' cost £2500.  To something around 11p for gas and 35p for electricity if my maths was correct.

Its a just under 27% increase, so gas should be nearer to 9p.

That's not how the cap works, so I don't believe you.

Best number I could give now would be 9.72p gas, 34.19 electric, as a national average including VAT.

That assumes the standing charges remain as predicted for the October cap, which was a very small rise over the current cap.

[Deleted User]

MWT said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Zaul22 said:

Sorry if this has already been answered somewhere else in this massive thread, but is Truss expected to cap the unit rates just like Ofgem, or cap the total bill so for people paying £1200 ish on the 28p rate it would still be a massive increase?

Cap the unit rates to make the 'average user' cost £2500.  To something around 11p for gas and 35p for electricity if my maths was correct.

Its a just under 27% increase, so gas should be nearer to 9p.

That's not how the cap works, so I don't believe you.

Best number I could give now would be 9.72p gas, 34.19 electric, as a national average including VAT.

That assumes the standing charges remain as predicted for the October cap, which was a very small rise over the current cap.

And assumes which split between gas and electric as a proportion of the total cap?

I mean at the moment in the April cap you have variations such as:

North West = £933.79 gas and £974.11 electricity     (49% gas)
Mersey       = £936.39 gas and £1038.84 electricity   (47% gas)

or in the October cap:

North West = £1785.25 gas and £1665.67 electricity   (52% gas)
Mersey       = £1787.09 gas and £1758.23 electricity   (50% gas)

otb666

I am on Help Beat Cancer Green Fixed February 2024 Cm1 Online
(elect unit 26.837p /sc 24.190p and
Gas 6.456p / 26.430p)
As todays SVT prices are elect  27.627p 

sc	44.74p per day

and gas unit rate7.282p per kWh

sc 27.22p per day


are slightly more expensive So unless they announce prices will reduce 1/10/22 I have still won even though i had to pay extra approx £254 between 15/1/22 to 1/4/22.

Mstty

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Zaul22 said:

Sorry if this has already been answered somewhere else in this massive thread, but is Truss expected to cap the unit rates just like Ofgem, or cap the total bill so for people paying £1200 ish on the 28p rate it would still be a massive increase?

Cap the unit rates to make the 'average user' cost £2500.  To something around 11p for gas and 35p for electricity if my maths was correct.

Its a just under 27% increase, so gas should be nearer to 9p.

That's not how the cap works, so I don't believe you.

How does it work then?

;

At the moment there's a capped annual bill for someone who uses 0kWh of electricity (divide by 365 to get the standing charge), 3100kWh of electricity (minus the first amount and divide by 3100 to get the unit cost), 0kWh of gas, and 12000kWh of gas.  That's 4 different amounts, in pounds.

The relevant numbers for the October cap are about £170, £1700, £100 and £1800.  That's where the headline figure of about £3500 comes from - £1700 + £1800.

If the gov caps the headline figure to £2500, we don't know which of the four numbers they will change and by how much.

You can assume any set of changes to those four figures, and each will give you a different unit price.  Just applying a flat percentage, which is calculated after summating and averaging four different factors (and actually more which cover region, single fuel, payment method etc.) isn't now it's done.

Doesn't Ofgem work with the typical domestic consumption values TDCV which is 2900kwh for electricity not 3100kwh for their calculation.

jak22

There are regional variations for units even for one supplier, but if your fix is less than around 3p more for gas than your current April capped variable (so around 10p-11p) and electric unit is within around 5p more then there's a chance your fix is still OK with the £2500 level suggestion i.e. its less than 25% above the April cap overall.

If they go all out and subsidise to the April cap level with no £400 rebate for anyone then no fix from this year is likely worth keeping and having paid higher rates for months will have been totally wasted.

But if the subsidy is only for 6 months or so then some fixes might be worth it still.

[Deleted User]

Mstty said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Chrysalis said:

Deleted_User said:

Zaul22 said:

Sorry if this has already been answered somewhere else in this massive thread, but is Truss expected to cap the unit rates just like Ofgem, or cap the total bill so for people paying £1200 ish on the 28p rate it would still be a massive increase?

Cap the unit rates to make the 'average user' cost £2500.  To something around 11p for gas and 35p for electricity if my maths was correct.

Its a just under 27% increase, so gas should be nearer to 9p.

That's not how the cap works, so I don't believe you.

How does it work then?

;

At the moment there's a capped annual bill for someone who uses 0kWh of electricity (divide by 365 to get the standing charge), 3100kWh of electricity (minus the first amount and divide by 3100 to get the unit cost), 0kWh of gas, and 12000kWh of gas.  That's 4 different amounts, in pounds.

The relevant numbers for the October cap are about £170, £1700, £100 and £1800.  That's where the headline figure of about £3500 comes from - £1700 + £1800.

If the gov caps the headline figure to £2500, we don't know which of the four numbers they will change and by how much.

You can assume any set of changes to those four figures, and each will give you a different unit price.  Just applying a flat percentage, which is calculated after summating and averaging four different factors (and actually more which cover region, single fuel, payment method etc.) isn't now it's done.

Doesn't Ofgem work with the typical domestic consumption values TDCV which is 2900kwh for electricity not 3100kwh for their calculation.

It says 3100kWh in the header of their tables.

QrizB

[Deleted User] said:

Mstty said:

Doesn't Ofgem work with the typical domestic consumption values TDCV which is 2900kwh for electricity not 3100kwh for their calculation.

It says 3100kWh in the header of their tables.

It's an idiosyncrasy of the system that, while the table uses 3100kWh, the published figure for the cap is based on 2900kWh.