Do I switch to fixed deal?

pochase

Because they are based on the predictions for two different dates - 26/08/2022 and 01/09/2022.

Forecasts change daily, currently getting cheaper, which most likely will change on Monday. It is a gamble, and completely up to you, it is your money.

flopsy1973

flopsy1973 said:

[Deleted User] said:

Comparing your fix with two different recent predictions - just your energy use without the extra services.





I don't get the same direct debit predictions as they are offering you.  Are you sure they're using these annual usage figures?

Looks like a great deal compared to the most expensive recent prediction, but not so good value compared to the cheapest recent prediction (less than £10 per month cheaper and it doesn't include the extra services you would need to take).

It's up to you whether you think reality will be better/worse/the same as any prediction.  Guessing next year's caps at this point isn't an accurate science.

Hi thanks for that I gave them the same figures as above so I don't understand why you have a lower monthly amount any ideas ? 
How accurate have these predictions been in the past to accurately reflect the future prices? 
Also I will be paying £218 more for their other services than currently paying so that also has to be factored with UW

Why are the fix prices different above to what i was quoted by UW of £312 ?
So do we think prices will go up Monday ?
what would you people do given you have lot more knowledge on this than me ?
thanks

pochase

Not prices will go up, predictions for the next years caps will most likely go up based on the stop of gas deliveries by Nord Stream.

And the difference in the quote you got from UW is either that they used a different estimate for the usage that you gave us, or different unit rates.

flopsy1973

so go for the fix then ?

Ryan_Holden

flopsy1973 said:

so go for the fix then ?

If it's any help. I'm currently paying Electric standing charge of 44.7 pence per day with a 30p day rate and a 20p night rate. Then a gas standing charge of 27.2 pence and a unit of 0.07 pence.

I've been offered the same standing charges but 68.6 pence day, 47.31 pence night and 18.7 pence gas.

I use abotu the same amount of electricity every month and I made the calculations for how much gas my house is expected to use over a year, and used the typical usage for a house in each of the months to make my choice.

For gas, I will pay more over the year (about £6) to fix as it's much more expensive for the next 3 months on the fix than on SVT. However, for electricity, I will save around £400 by fixing. 

So I've decided to fix. I have a £0 exit fee so I can drop it if required.

Ryan_Holden

That should be £60 more for gas, sorry.

flopsy1973

Anybody else have any insight into the figures above it seems if I fix there not much of saving depending on future rises on cap how sure are people it will go the higher end? 
Thanks

macman

Nobody can be sure about anything. Putin could decide to withdraw from Ukraine tomorrow and to turn Nordstream 1 back on at full capacity. And offer free gas to Europe all winter in atonement. But I wouldn't want to bet on it.
The point of a fix is that you are buying an insurance policy against future increases. Only you can decide if you want to pay for that security.

flopsy1973

[Deleted User] said:

Comparing your fix with two different recent predictions - just your energy use without the extra services.





I don't get the same direct debit predictions as they are offering you.  Are you sure they're using these annual usage figures?

Looks like a great deal compared to the most expensive recent prediction, but not so good value compared to the cheapest recent prediction (less than £10 per month cheaper and it doesn't include the extra services you would need to take).

It's up to you whether you think reality will be better/worse/the same as any prediction.  Guessing next year's caps at this point isn't an accurate science.

Hi did the quote again and still comes out different figures to above cant understand why that would be ?
The difference is under 600 pounds now between the fix and SVT on most expensive prediction above taking into account the 218 pounds extra I will be paying for the extra services, 
Do people still think a fix is best option here now ? and change of PM ??? 

[Deleted User]

The advice hasn't changed - macman put it very well.

Fixing at this point is like buying insurance against price rise.  You will pay more than you need at the start of the fix in exchange for being 'immune' to future rises.  If prices go up, you win, if they don't, you lose.  Only you can decide if you want to take the insurance in this way.

The maths might be different because this is only my approximation of the calculations based on the published 'average user'.  If they think your usage might follow a different pattern (either based on history or other things they know about you) then the numbers can come out different.