Investing in India

Millyonare

Anybody investing big in India at the moment, or in the past? ETFs, funds, anything else? Short, mid or long horizon is fine.

If yes, why?
If no, why?

Got my own thoughts. But curious to source the informed crowd here 👍

El_Torro

Boring (but true) answer: I don't invest specifically in India, don't really see the need to be more exposed to India, since my multi asset funds already have some exposure there.

MEM62

Millyonare said:

Got my own thoughts. 

Which you are not sharing whilst asking others for theirs.   

Voyager2002

I used to hold a US-listed investment trust called The India Fund. It paid massive amounts in dividends. Then my broker changed how they worked and I found out how much US tax I was paying on those dividends, so I decided I wanted to hold the same underlying investments through a different vehicle. Simple: Aberdeen produced slightly different versions of the same product listed in New York and London, so I switched to the domestic version.

noclaf

I've been thinking about India focussed funds for a while, I do think as a country they are on the up in terms of development and their place on the world stage therefore could be some good investment opportunities.

However I also worry about the India/China situation and where that could go in the next few years e.g: if things kick off properly, the relationship between each country is not in a great place and both are vying for more geopolitical influence in the region as well as the border disputes. 

Overall I am holding back for now but am sure there will be opportunities there in the next few years, just be ready for a choppy ride!

aroominyork

Are you considering India because it is getting lots of cheap oil from Russia? That isn't going to harm its economy.

I have a chunk in India through Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Sustainability which I hold as a proxy emerging markets fund. 47.6% of the fund is in India and I rate the managers highly. Stewart Investors also has a specific India fund with similar management. (I briefly held India Capital Growth but that was a bit of knee-jerk investing when I read about it; it's highly volatile in midcaps.)

mark_cycling00

I had a bit of Jupiter India but sold in Jan when Goldman Sachs said that there was going to be a glut of new shares issued in India that would limit price rises.

Longer term I think India has a very positive future, especially on demographics and skilled workforce. 
But as mentioned China doesn't get on with them which is not good. 

I might invest back in but through emerging markets as a whole. 

aroominyork

mark_cycling00 said:

I had a bit of Jupiter India but sold in Jan when Goldman Sachs said that there was going to be a glut of new shares issued in India that would limit price rises.

Is this GS's view? It doesn't contain any warning about limiting price rises. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/goldman-sachs-india-start-ups-ipo-report.html

mark_cycling00

GS used to publish daily research updates and weekly podcasts on their website with their global analysts where they would cover the global outlook for investments. This became focussed around their own PR and I stopped visiting the site a while back.

I noted this down in my investment decisions spreadsheet on the 20th December 2021 with GS as the source, and sold a few weeks later.

That link is from September. 

mark_cycling00

Saw this today from "Dauntless Management LLC"

MSCI EM troughed a month later, on July 15th. Over the past month, EM equities are +3.6%, with Brazil being the biggest mover at +19.8% and China continuing to be one of the worst at -2.4%. Saudi was also strong at +13.5%, which is interesting as Brent crude was down nearly 19% during the period. In looking at correlation data, on a three-year basis, India has by far the highest correlation to the S&P 500 at 0.97, followed closely by Taiwan. If the S&P 500 continues to correct, then it is a safe bet that Indian equities will start to correct as well; India is also the most expensive EM equity market. We believe EM equities overall, however, should hold up better. 

I have no knowledge on how good Dauntless are are predicting things. But interesting to read this viewpoint

Millyonare

Good inputs, everyone. Thanks.

Tend to agree, the PE and PB ratios do look toppy (expensive). The Nifty 50 is hovering around 20-30 PE, for example. But india has strong and positive momentum -- particularly as some label it the "new China". It's a tough call.

The biggest challenge, though, is finding up-to-the-second biz-news sources or biz-social media for India. The market is nowhere near as well covered as the US. Makes it hard to throw in a big sum, when something could tank 5 or 10 percent, and one has no idea why.