Gas wholesale price coming down

tghe-retford

Astria said:

I see Russia have decided not to resume gas flows through the main Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany, causing a surge in wholesale costs, so this price drop didn't last long!

I looked at the ICE Natural Gas Prices for October today and the price now is lower than the prices at the start of today.

Am I missing something that I am not in on but everyone else is?

The general consensus is that the concept of Russia turning off the gas to Europe is mostly priced in.

macman

Prices will only peak when demand is reduced or supply is increased. 

Malkytheheed

mjm3346 said:

Malkytheheed said:

Now that Russia has basically said "no more gas to Europe" surely that is it for suprises now. Thats it over. Cards have all been played and prices must be at their utmost peak. I mean it can't possible get any worse now than "literally no Russian gas". He has played all his cards. We must be looking at absolute peak pricing and it can only come down as supplies from elsewhere increase and other forms of energy are initiated. 

Perhaps a peak as long as the weather does not turn colder, wonder what season is approaching?
If we get a cold winter like 2010/11 this will be nothing like the peak

You don't think that is already forseen? You don't think people know winter is coming and is already prices in?? Really? 

xeny

Malkytheheed said:

mjm3346 said:

Malkytheheed said:

Now that Russia has basically said "no more gas to Europe" surely that is it for suprises now. Thats it over. Cards have all been played and prices must be at their utmost peak. I mean it can't possible get any worse now than "literally no Russian gas". He has played all his cards. We must be looking at absolute peak pricing and it can only come down as supplies from elsewhere increase and other forms of energy are initiated. 

Perhaps a peak as long as the weather does not turn colder, wonder what season is approaching?
If we get a cold winter like 2010/11 this will be nothing like the peak

You don't think that is already forseen? You don't think people know winter is coming and is already prices in?? Really? 

An average winter is going to be in the prices. Winters, being handmade items exhibit a certain amount of variability, which is presumably reflected in variations gas demand.

Malkytheheed

Effician said:

Malkytheheed said:

Now that Russia has basically said "no more gas to Europe" surely that is it for suprises now. Thats it over. Cards have all been played and prices must be at their utmost peak. I mean it can't possible get any worse now than "literally no Russian gas". He has played all his cards. We must be looking at absolute peak pricing and it can only come down as supplies from elsewhere increase and other forms of energy are initiated. 

You need to check the other pipelines from Russia to Europe to see that Putin's game is far from over.

• The Sohranovka-Oktyabrskaya pipeline (part of the Soyuz line) coming to Europe through Ukraine was shutdown by Ukraine as soon as Russia invaded.

• The South stream pipeline across the Black Sea has already been shutdown

• The Yamal pipeline through Poland has already been shutdown. 

• The Druzhba Pipeline through Ukraine was shutdown 4 weeks ago. 

• Nordstream 2 isn't completed and wont be. 

• Nordstream 1 was the last operational gas pipeline from Russia to europe. 

So maybe you need to check your own knowledge? 

Russia no longer provides gas to Europe. Putin has no more cards to play. Toys are out the pram. 

tghe-retford

Putin does have one more card to play of sort - Russia is a member of OPEC+. Now he is controlling gas, he can influence oil production and encourage other members to agree to cuts.

Effician

Malkytheheed said:

Effician said:

Malkytheheed said:

Now that Russia has basically said "no more gas to Europe" surely that is it for suprises now. Thats it over. Cards have all been played and prices must be at their utmost peak. I mean it can't possible get any worse now than "literally no Russian gas". He has played all his cards. We must be looking at absolute peak pricing and it can only come down as supplies from elsewhere increase and other forms of energy are initiated. 

You need to check the other pipelines from Russia to Europe to see that Putin's game is far from over.

• The Sohranovka-Oktyabrskaya pipeline (part of the Soyuz line) coming to Europe through Ukraine was shutdown by Ukraine as soon as Russia invaded.

• The South stream pipeline across the Black Sea has already been shutdown

• The Yamal pipeline through Poland has already been shutdown. 

• The Druzhba Pipeline through Ukraine was shutdown 4 weeks ago. 

• Nordstream 2 isn't completed and wont be. 

• Nordstream 1 was the last operational gas pipeline from Russia to europe. 

So maybe you need to check your own knowledge? 

Russia no longer provides gas to Europe. Putin has no more cards to play. Toys are out the pram.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-gas-flows-europe-via-ukraine-seen-stable-monday-2022-09-05/

chris_n

We are still getting gas via Ukraine here in Austria but the deliveries are less than we ordered (30%).

maxmycardagain

up 20% it seems