Investing in solar panel manufacture (pv)

Type_45

Millyonare said:

China today manufactures 70-95% of all solar panels sold worldwide and has crushed almost every other country on the planet (including the UK). The race to win solar ended years ago.

We'll still be buying China's solar panels after they make a move on Taiwan?

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

China today manufactures 70-95% of all solar panels sold worldwide and has crushed almost every other country on the planet (including the UK). The race to win solar ended years ago.

We'll still be buying China's solar panels after they make a move on Taiwan?

With the world's solar supply chain almost entirely based in or near China, and their competitive advantage of lower costs and high quality, the rest of the world will have little or no choice but to keep buying Chinese kit.

The West bemoans Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine -- but Russia's global oil sales and profit today in Q3 2022 sit at a record high! War does not always stop trade.

Dyor, etc.

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

China today manufactures 70-95% of all solar panels sold worldwide and has crushed almost every other country on the planet (including the UK). The race to win solar ended years ago.

We'll still be buying China's solar panels after they make a move on Taiwan?

With the world's solar supply chain almost entirely based in or near China, and their competitive advantage of lower costs and high quality, the rest of the world will have little or no choice but to keep buying Chinese kit.

The West bemoans Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine -- but Russia's global oil sales and profit today in Q3 2022 sit at a record high! War does not always stop trade.

Dyor, etc.

Russia is selling oil to India and China (and no doubt other countries too).  That's how it's making its money.


Oil and gas are essential.  Solar panels aren't.  We can simply not buy China's solar panels and be none the worse off for it.

Millyonare

China is on track for an unassailable 85-95% share of the global solar manufacturing supply chain by mid-decade. No other country on Earth is able to scale up production and compete.

Solar is 5% of the world's energy mix in 2022 and will be 10-20% of total by the 2030s. Around 1 billion humans will depend on solar energy for their lifestyle or survival by the next decade.

Countries that go big on solar, like most of the developed world, have to (and will have to) buy from China. There is no other (viable) choice.

HCIMbtw

I would be careful about producer exposure to Xinjiang. 

There is well founded accusations of forced labour in the region which is responsible for much Solar PV production. Governments and large corporates are taking increasing efforts to avoid any exposure to the region -  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/business/economy/china-solar-companies-forced-labor-xinjiang.html

Type_45

Millyonare said:

China is on track for an unassailable 85-95% share of the global solar manufacturing supply chain by mid-decade. No other country on Earth is able to scale up production and compete.

Solar is 5% of the world's energy mix in 2022 and will be 10-20% of total by the 2030s. Around 1 billion humans will depend on solar energy for their lifestyle or survival by the next decade.

Countries that go big on solar, like most of the developed world, have to (and will have to) buy from China. There is no other (viable) choice.

Going solar is a political choice.  It is not something the West needs to do.  

There is a viable alternative to buying China's solar panels:  not buying them.

Millyonare

Solar is now a life-critical part of the world's energy mix for hundreds of millions of humans (and rising). The Green Age is taking over from the Oil Age. Only China now has the scale to solar up those hundreds of millions. No other country has the scale or skills.

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Solar is now a life-critical part of the world's energy mix for hundreds of millions of humans (and rising). The Green Age is taking over from the Oil Age. Only China now has the scale to solar up those hundreds of millions. No other country has the scale or skills.

I disagree.  But let's say you're right:  go long silver then.  Because each solar panel uses two thirds an ounce of silver.  There is not enough silver available to make all those solar panels.

MouldyOldDough

They are apparently using copper rather than silver nowadays...
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-09-silver-copper-boost-solar-cell.html

doe808

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Solar is now a life-critical part of the world's energy mix for hundreds of millions of humans (and rising). The Green Age is taking over from the Oil Age. Only China now has the scale to solar up those hundreds of millions. No other country has the scale or skills.

I disagree.  But let's say you're right:  go long silver then.  Because each solar panel uses two thirds an ounce of silver.  There is not enough silver available to make all those solar panels.

Next generation of solar cell architecture will require pretty much zero silver imo. For example, aluminium foil (or somthing similar) will probably replace it in the next 5 or so years.