How many years do you factor for retirement?

Beddie

I intend to retire around 60 and I plan financially to be around for 20, maybe 25 years. If I'm still around after that then money needs are lower anyway, no long-haul holidays etc. And if I did need money equity release would be a good option. No dependents to leave money to, after all.

Money aside, it's the number of healthy years that matter the most. So I'm trying to be more physically healthy, to make sure I do get to spend my retirement in mostly decent health.

bostonerimus

Longevity should be part of your stress testing. I retired at age 52 and I looked at numbers ranging from average longevity ie 84 ish out to 100 and made sure I had a greater than 95% probability of success. My extreme conditions included living to 100, a few years of above 10% inflation (I did not figure on 18%) and a few years of 25% investment losses. An index linked annuity or DB pension really come into there own when long life spans are combined with poor investment returns and it helps out if you are frugal too.

Apodemus

B0bbyEwing said:

Considering you actually know very little about my health beyond a very small portion what I've mentioned here, I'm curious as to how you think I can "radically improve" it.

So you're not answering totally blind, I'll give you half a chance - I go to the largest gym in the area of a not so small city. As things currently stand, without going in to too much detail, I'm the 3rd most active person at my gym this month. A few months ago I was 2nd and I can't remember the last time I was out of the top 10. Frequently in the top 5.

So then, how can I not slightly improve but "radically improve" my health?

You are right, I know very little about you and I am glad to hear that you are so healthy.  But your suggestions that you "may not have a retirement at all" and that you "shut off" when people talk about modern medicine did not seem to be consistent with you being one of the very few people in UK who can't take steps to radically improve their health. 

If you are active and healthy now, and more importantly weather your 40s and 50s without succumbing to the ravages that this period of life places on all of us, then your chances of a very long retiral are excellent.  But around age 40 is probably one of the best times of life to take stock. Daily life-style choices in this next period of life can make a huge difference to outcomes - not just in length of life, but in length of healthy life.  I certainly wish I was 40!

But even if you get all that dialled in correctly, your pessimism is not good for you, as  this recent paper in Nature shows.

anonmoose

I can understand B0bby's point of view. I think if you have family die relatively young then it informs your opinions. Your normal is normal.

I am mid forties and both my parents died fairly young and it does make me naturally pessimistic on these matters. I know logically my circumstances are different to theirs and I live a healthy lifestyle with a very active job but I can't help my pessimism.

I do believe pessimism does have health impacts and I have to say all the very old people I have known (in their 90s or beyond) have been naturally optimistic and carefree about life's ups and downs. I don't know if age has made them that way or if being optimistic has helped them reach old age.

And it is correct to factor in technological changes but equally the pressure on the NHS means some things are being missed, people are waiting too long for treatments etc. Hopefully things will improve over time but this is something a pessimist also considers.

Apodemus

anonmoose said:

I do believe pessimism does have health impacts and I have to say all the very old people I have known (in their 90s or beyond) have been naturally optimistic and carefree about life's ups and downs. I don't know if age has made them that way or if being optimistic has helped them reach old age.

Interestingly, the research suggests that pessimism and optimism may not be simple opposites when it comes to health effects.  Pessimistic people tend to have poorer outcomes than average, but optimistic people don't show better outcomes than average.

However, being care-free might be the opposite of being stressed and there is no doubt that long-term stress is harmful, so perhaps pessimists may simply be suffering a form of long-term stress.

anonmoose

Yes I think that's probably it Apodermus. I am a stress head and I think it often goes hand in hand with pessimism. 

In all other areas of my life I optimise health wise (no smoking, no drinking apart from occasional red wine, med diet, plenty of cardio). I am aware that stress management is my weakness so I constantly try to reduce my low level stress, talk myself down and rationalise. Easier said than done though when it's your nature.

B0bbyEwing

OldMusicGuy said:

The care situation is what it is. The most important thing is to plan for it and make sure you have choices.

My FiL has tried to carry on for as long as possible living independently so that he can pass on his savings to his family. His family have been saying don't worry about that, spend it on yourself to make sure you spend your final years in comfort. He has finally got to the point where he is struggling and has decided to use his wealth to ensure he can go into a lovely home near to us in a part of the country he loves. He can fund between 8 to 10 years of care. The family don't care that there may be nothing left, they just want him to be comfortable. 

Some times you can't tell them. 
My mother seems to be similar to the case you mention. Wants to leave most of her money behind for me & my siblings. 

We're like no really, enjoy it yourself. It's yours. She wont be told though. So then some see you as a money grabber which really isn't the case. 
My ideal scenario is my final penny is spent on the day I die and leave nothing behind, aside from burial/cremation payment as I don't think anyone should cover dealing with my carcass other than myself. 

B0bbyEwing

Beddie said:

Money aside, it's the number of healthy years that matter the most. So I'm trying to be more physically healthy, to make sure I do get to spend my retirement in mostly decent health.

Yes precisely. 

Some people are probably happy to hit another year no matter what. 
I personally wouldn't want to linger. Existing just because my body hasn't given up yet. 

My dad retired at 65, had 3 years of not so great health. He was able to do things but he was having trouble with his heart & lungs, in & out of hospital. Then died. 

With a crystal ball, would've been much better to retire some years earlier when he wasn't as unwell & had more time to enjoy what he'd spent years grafting for.



Side note, some admiral numbers I'm seeing in this thread. Retiring very early. 
As a curious person anyway, makes me wonder what these guys did for a living or if their job didn't enable that luxury, how they were able to do that - inheritance maybe, lotto win maybe, wealthy partner maybe.

I've not known many people who've been able to retire early. One was a chap who earned about 60k/yr back around 2005 but in comparison to his wife he earned nothing. She was well over 100k/yr. He retired between 50-55. Can't remember the age now but he certainly was a world away from my position of 25k-30k.

Albermarle

Pessimistic people tend to have poorer outcomes than average, but optimistic people don't show better outcomes than average.

People who are too optimistic can make bad/impulsive/unrealistic decisions, so that might be a factor.

Also when reality intrudes on their outlook, they can take it quite badly as they were never expecting it to happen to them .

DullGreyGuy

biscan25 said:

I don't mind the morbidity, it's my job.

We are talking about longevity rather than morbidity (the rate of disease in a population)