Omg 18%

arnoldy

saucer said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moby said:

I wonder whether we'll get matching increases in our ndex linked LGPS pensions this Sept. Wouldn't be surprised if the Govmt capped them!
I reckon I'll still get a larger increase than the pay increase I'd have got if I'd continued working though. 

People with public sector pensions are the lucky ones they are protected by inflation. From what the government is saying it also looks like people receiving benefits are also protected, it's the workers and people with private pensions that are going to take the hit

Of course people with public sector pensions who are still working are less well protected than those in payment. For people with ‘gilt edge’ final salary schemes inflation is of little benefit if the salary is lagging it. Wage inflation significantly lower than in private sector on average. 

Final salary pensions with their index linking pretty much only exist in public sector now. Utterly unsustainable, and everyone should be on a level playing field. If public or private sector people think they are underpaid, move - let the market decide wages. I suspect in public sector many front line (teachers, dinner ladies, nurses, ...) are underpaid, but there are an awful lot who are not front line or services run poorly/for the benefit of staff not customers eg DVLA, Passport Office.

jimi_man

Moby said:

I wonder whether we'll get matching increases in our ndex linked LGPS pensions this Sept. Wouldn't be surprised if the Govmt capped them!
I reckon I'll still get a larger increase than the pay increase I'd have got if I'd continued working though. 

Public sector pension increases are linked to State Pension increases, so if that increases then so will they. They could cap the SP though I don't imagine that would be popular. 

Pat38493

saucer said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moby said:

I wonder whether we'll get matching increases in our ndex linked LGPS pensions this Sept. Wouldn't be surprised if the Govmt capped them!
I reckon I'll still get a larger increase than the pay increase I'd have got if I'd continued working though. 

People with public sector pensions are the lucky ones they are protected by inflation. From what the government is saying it also looks like people receiving benefits are also protected, it's the workers and people with private pensions that are going to take the hit

Of course people with public sector pensions who are still working are less well protected than those in payment. For people with ‘gilt edge’ final salary schemes inflation is of little benefit if the salary is lagging it. Wage inflation significantly lower than in private sector on average. 

There is a discussion currently on NHS pension forums where some posters are considering retiring earlier than planned as they will get larger increases on their pension than on their income.

sevenhills

SouthCoastBoy said:

 From what the government is saying it also looks like people receiving benefits are also protected, it's the workers and people with private pensions that are going to take the hit

I have not seen anything that states benefits will increase with inflation, the state pension yes.
Poor people are getting hundreds £££s towards their energy bills, they won't get an inflation increase too.
More likely nothing or an increase to match wage increases.
The minimum wage could increase by 10+%

hugheskevi

saucer said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moby said:

I wonder whether we'll get matching increases in our ndex linked LGPS pensions this Sept. Wouldn't be surprised if the Govmt capped them!
I reckon I'll still get a larger increase than the pay increase I'd have got if I'd continued working though. 

People with public sector pensions are the lucky ones they are protected by inflation. From what the government is saying it also looks like people receiving benefits are also protected, it's the workers and people with private pensions that are going to take the hit

Of course people with public sector pensions who are still working are less well protected than those in payment. For people with ‘gilt edge’ final salary schemes inflation is of little benefit if the salary is lagging it. Wage inflation significantly lower than in private sector on average. 

Many final salary pensions include in their calculation of final pensionable earnings a measure of past years' pensionable earnings revalued by inflation. This gives protection if salary increases by less than inflation.

This is perhaps more common in the more modern final salary pensions than the schemes dating from many decades ago.

shortseller09

Anyone who has been invested for the last 10 years or so should have consistently made returns way above inflation, so returns below inflation for a few years should not be a major issue. 

daz378

My lgps pension   I think   since 2014  went from final salary to career.average...I had hoped to retire  when I hit 60...  realised this might be ambitious    3.5 years    might need a couple more years    with this COLC 

Moby

arnoldy said:

saucer said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moby said:

I wonder whether we'll get matching increases in our ndex linked LGPS pensions this Sept. Wouldn't be surprised if the Govmt capped them!
I reckon I'll still get a larger increase than the pay increase I'd have got if I'd continued working though. 

People with public sector pensions are the lucky ones they are protected by inflation. From what the government is saying it also looks like people receiving benefits are also protected, it's the workers and people with private pensions that are going to take the hit

Of course people with public sector pensions who are still working are less well protected than those in payment. For people with ‘gilt edge’ final salary schemes inflation is of little benefit if the salary is lagging it. Wage inflation significantly lower than in private sector on average. 

Final salary pensions with their index linking pretty much only exist in public sector now. Utterly unsustainable, and everyone should be on a level playing field. If public or private sector people think they are underpaid, move - let the market decide wages. I suspect in public sector many front line (teachers, dinner ladies, nurses, ...) are underpaid, but there are an awful lot who are not front line or services run poorly/for the benefit of staff not customers eg DVLA, Passport Office.

The market has been deciding wages for years. That's exactly why we have underpaid staff in the public sector. My index linked pension, (providing it is not capped) is the only reason I worked there for 35 years. 
https://www.ft.com/content/d819ba3b-d886-42dd-9be9-511134fc69d2

jim8888

Turn off the news, don't read the mainstream papers and focus on what you can control - including the media and information that you digest (I'm not suggesting you stick your head in the sand!) The hysteria and desperation for bad news is beyond a joke now and it annoys and upsets me no end. I try to be immune from it, but when you're looking at your investments in retirement, have no income coming in except your projected returns, it's really quite hard to be blase about current circumstances. 

mark_cycling00

I'd like to put some context around this financial model that predicted 18% inflation (much more widely reported that other predictions)

I made a note of the predictions made by big banks and huge consultancies when Russian Invaded Ukraine:

Berenberg Bank (Germany) "Ukraine is a minor country in terms of global GDP and so we think the impact on the global economy will be negligible"

Deloitte (UK) "We predict that inflation may increase by a maximum of 2.5% due to energy supply disruption"

JPMorgan (USA) "There is no upper limit on how high gas prices can go, we predict energy rationing in Germany by the end of the year"

JPMorgan nailed it but their prediction was not widely reported.

More recently, the same JPMorgan model predicted no recession would happen and was 100% wrong.

Models can never incorporate enough data and often not much better than predicting that by 2040 everyone in Japan will be an Elvis Impersonator.