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Gold or Cash saver
[Deleted User]
Posts: 0 Newbie
I am going to start saving some monies soon. But I am aware cash is losing its value a lot over this year and next, so how about gold instead?
To be clear this is for long term savings 10 years at least.
To be clear this is for long term savings 10 years at least.
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Comments
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For a long term horizon of 10years plus, why not invest it in a global equity tracker fund?
You're more likely to achieve higher overall returns (through capital growth and dividends) than gold over a 10y period."If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes” Warren Buffett
Save £12k in 2025 - #024 £1,450 / £15,000 (9%)2 -
If it as at least 10 years, then you should consider investing, either via a Stocks and shares ISA or a pension.
At least you will than have a reasonably good chance of beating inflation.
Investments go up and down in the short and medium term, but in the long term the trend has always been up .
Investing for beginners: Why do we invest? - Monevator
Long-term investing: Increasing your chances of positive returns (nutmeg.com)
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Thanks for the replies, I already invest in a pension which is investments so I wanted to put some money elsewhere. All the eggs in one basket and all that.0
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A few things to consider wrt gold. Firstly, you may have an exchange rate play in such an investment. Gold trades in USD and with GBP were to depreciate further, you'll be profiting from that. Secondly, gold price can be explained with a statistical model as the function of growth of money supply and the real rate of interest. For the past decade we had QE, i.e. increase in money and falling real interest rates, both have gold prices a boost. Fed started QT, so shrinking money supply will provide a headwind to gold prices. Add to that rising interest rates. But at this point, things get tricky, what's the expectation of both interest rates and inflation, primarily in US? Keeping inflation constant, gold will be negatively impacted by rising nominal rates. Keeping rates unchanged and inflation rising, gold would benefit from that. If you believe or expect that real rates will remain low, because say Fed will hike maybe until year end and then stop but inflation will not come down so quickly or may stay at elevated levels, gold should hold its value or may even appreciate.
Thirdly, recession/stagflation. Empirically gold performed well during such periods.
Lastly, risk premium given the war in Ukraine and long term play if China were to decide to diversify its currency reserves away from USD and US Treasuries. Gold might become attractive for the central bankers there. Who knows.
Personally I do a bit of gold physically, because you never know. Here I view it as an asset which may not yield me anything but should we ever be in real trouble (say war extends into NATO territory), then it will be catnip and prices shoot up. For investing, I play gold tactically via ETF (or future), but this is more active trading rather than long term investing. Please do not regard this as investment advice, that's just my personal view on things.
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