Which prediction is most reliable

NeverendingDMP

Just wondering if people think the Cardiff Institute Is the most reliable prediction as some.of the papers are quoting Auxillone energy consultancy firm. Ther figures appear to be giving a slightly higher cap from Jan onwards. I've been offered a fix with no exit fees and it's a close call whether to accept or not.
Thanks all

macman

No one knows, not even Mystic Meg or the late Paul the Octopus. But, if there are no exit fees, then your exposure is greatly limited .No one knows what the cap will be, but if it is appreciably lower than your fix, you can switch in around 21 days without penalty.
What fix is this please?

pochase

Do you mean Cornwall Insights with Cardiff Institute? Never seen any prediction from Cardiff Institute.

Axilione is more expensive for the forecast from January, not much difference for the Octobervcap to Cornwall Insight.

I am used to Cornwall Insights predictions, and they have a good track record. Axilione does almost daily predications and reacts faster to the market. Even if you can discuss the starting points for the amounts, the trends should be correct.

Astria

The cap will be known in about a weeks time and by then I'd expect all current fixes to be no longer available.

If you have no exit fees then why not sign up now and cancel if the new cap works out cheaper?

NeverendingDMP

Thankyou. Yes the Cornwall insights one it will be. I've seen it abbreviated as CI a lot so have got its name wrong. Yes it was the Jan onwards part that made we wonder. 
I'm currently being offered 57.48 pkwh for electricity with standing charge of 41.98 and 17.18 for gas with a standing charge of 27.22.  standing charges similar to what I'm paying now but it's the now to Oct I'm unsure about.  Our supplier went bust so no real details to compare to last winter but we are predicted 4364 per year electricity and 15043 gas. Likelihood being nov to march being main spend. Offered via octopus when I emailed them direct to ask for a rate.

NeverendingDMP

Now to Oct then now to Dec I suppose is what I need to take a gamble with regards to fixing or not

EssexHebridean

Remember if you commit now and then the cap announcement means that you want to back out you have the cooling off period to use... 

NeverendingDMP

macman said:

No one knows, not even Mystic Meg or the late Paul the Octopus. But, if there are no exit fees, then your exposure is greatly limited .No one knows what the cap will be, but if it is appreciably lower than your fix, you can switch in around 21 days without penalty.
What fix is this please?

I know it's real crystal ball territory isn't it. I think the fix only becomes similar or lower from Jan onwards and that's what I'm unsure off. Oh to be able to see the weather and price cap of the future eh!

NeverendingDMP

EssexHebridean said:

Remember if you commit now and then the cap announcement means that you want to back out you have the cooling off period to use... 

Thankyou yes I've checked that's the case and no exit fees etc

macman

NeverendingDMP said:

Thankyou. Yes the Cornwall insights one it will be. I've seen it abbreviated as CI a lot so have got its name wrong. Yes it was the Jan onwards part that made we wonder. 
I'm currently being offered 57.48 pkwh for electricity with standing charge of 41.98 and 17.18 for gas with a standing charge of 27.22.  standing charges similar to what I'm paying now but it's the now to Oct I'm unsure about.  Our supplier went bust so no real details to compare to last winter but we are predicted 4364 per year electricity and 15043 gas. Likelihood being nov to march being main spend. Offered via octopus when I emailed them direct to ask for a rate.

The gas rate on that is pretty much on a par with BG's October 23v4 offer, but that has huge exit fees. A fix without exit fees is very attractive. Please could you post the email address you used to contact them? Their website just refers you to a phone number and deters you from contacting them as a potential new customer.
Are you already a customer of Octopus under SoLR, it's not quite clear?

NeverendingDMP

I'm a current customer. I used the contact us link on the app. The fix I'm offered in my app is worse but was separated into day and night rate which I'm not so I emailed direct to ask for a quote. I replied with a query so suspect I have managed to hold the quote a day or two just by way of them needing time to reply. Can't see it remaining in place too long ha ha