Fix or move to standard variable

paullubs71

Hi

I've been offered the rates below when my current fixed tariff ends in September woth Outfox the market his year but cannot find the forecast hourly rates for standard capped variable to compare against

Renewal offer:

Electricity £0.618 per kwh
Standing charge £0.490 per day
Gas £0.192 per kwh
Standing charge £0.328 per day

My annual usage is
Electricity 2622 kwh per year
Gas 16832 kwh per year

New forecast annual spend £5,158.57

Current tariff 

I'm currently paying until 20th September 
Electricity £0.205 per kwh
Standing charge £.270 per day
Gas £0.037
Standing charge £0.307
Totland annual cost £1,368.53

Any help you be appreciated as I cannot find the forecast capped rates anywhere to see if this deal is good or not. I know prices are going up massively.

pochase

Per current predictions it will be January before the offered rates start to look good and might save you money.

You are in the lucky situation that they allow you to start in September, so you will only have the big difference between current SVT and fix only for 10 days.

Gas rate is extreme, you won't be able to save any money as per current predictions at all.

Here is the current guesstimate bas on CI predictions.  This does not cater for any regional differences.


Not a deal I would do. I might e proven wrong if the cap goes up even further than predicted.

paullubs71

pochase said:

Per current predictions it will be January before the offered rates start to look good and might save you money.

You are in the lucky situation that they allow you to start in September, so you will only have the big difference between current SVT and fix only for 10 days.

Gas rate is extreme, you won't be able to save any money as per current predictions at all.

Here is the current guesstimate bas on CI predictions.  This does not cater for any regional differences.


Not a deal I would do. I might e proven wrong if the cap goes up even further than predicted.

Thank you very much for for the analysis and for providing the forecast rates from CI. I did not think the fixed rates which I had been offered would be better than the current forecast for the next price caps.

paullubs71

Any further advice/thoughts following the recent price cap forecasts? My current contract ends 20th September so I have a bit of time to wait until the new PM starts and decides what support if any we get. I assume that if the new PM does give support to people then my tariff would change but I guess no one knows especially as i would have agreed a new contract. Alternatively if I did fix and needed to cancel it would be £150 exit fees which is a lot but not when I'm forecast paying over £5k next year.
Thanks in advance 

FreeBear

Check to see if that tariff is still valid from OFTM.

My current supplier upped the tariff rates on any fixed deal on the 25th - Just as well I'd signed up for the old version the previous evening.

paullubs71

Tariff is still available and when I was on the site last night I actually signed up to it. I have a 14 day cooling off period.

paullubs71

I'm trying to find the Cornwall Insights cost per kwh and daily charge predictions for Jan 2023 and April 2023 as the news headlines look horrible

fergie_

They don't tend to publish them, but someone will be along to provide a guess based on standing charges staying much the same and the 'average user' being 12000 kwh gas and 2900kwh electric.

QrizB

paullubs71 said:

I'm trying to find the Cornwall Insights cost per kwh and daily charge predictions for Jan 2023 and April 2023 as the news headlines look horrible

Those numbers are in the first reply you received in this thread

pochase said:

Here is the current guesstimate bas on CI predictions.  This does not cater for any regional differences.

Wb90

I have very very similar usage figures to you and been quoted similar unit prices, and figured out using previous actual month by month readings that the gas price would need to rise to ~24p/kWh in January and remain that high until the end of the fix rate for it to work out cheaper.

paullubs71

I'm sat in the fence on this one especially as the Government has not published their support package. If I knew the right answer and what would happen to price I would be a millionaire and not as much affected by these costs. 

I used the calculator on the MSE site here and it indicated it was a good deal based on the factors which everyone knows now.https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/#tool