I wish I hadn't followed Martin's advice not to fix my energy deal

littleteapot

He's a fallible human just like you and I. In the absence of time travel he took an educated *guess* at what was going to happen.

I took his advice, installed it in my crystal ball, waved my hands over it a few times and got no clarity. So I made my own educated *guess* and fixed for 2 years in April about 20% above the SVR. My guess was right, *this time*.

Nobody can reliably guess future markets. Some get lucky sometimes. Some get lucky more times than others. Those ones end up rich, the majority of us end up broke. That's Life (TM). That's why I don't gamble (never did) or try to play the stock market (tried a couple of times, always lost, so I stopped that).

pearl123

I was reading today that there's a fair chance that high energy prices could be with us until  2024. 

Alnat1

Best advice now is to look at ways to cut down on energy use. Insulation, blocking draughts, heating controls, how you heat water and how to cut down the amount you use. Even thicker lined curtains and closing internal doors to zone areas really helps.

Think about it now while the weather is still warm and you'll be all ready when the time comes to put the heating on.

The_Green_Hornet

littleteapot said:

He's a fallible human just like you and I. In the absence of time travel he took an educated *guess* at what was going to happen.

Which begs the question as to why so many media outlets see him as some sort of expert  

Tristan74

Ok I take it back.

I have just run the numbers myself and now I'm not sure what Octopus are playing at, Martin was completely right.

Using my actual usage data and, if I allow for a 70% increase in October and 10% increase in January, my next 12 months look set to cost me £3,280. In fact, even if I apply the forecast January price from today, my next 12 months will cost me £3,665. 

So why Octopus are quoting me £5,898 for the next 12 months? I get that they need to hedge their bets but this is 80% over the forecast.

What's the etiquette in these situations? I'm more than happy to delete the whole thread, if that's possible, or should I rely on people reading to the end and seeing my contraction?

MattMattMattUK

pearl123 said:

I was reading today that there's a fair chance that high energy prices could be with us until  2024. 

The latest is that they expect there to be no drops before 2024,that means 40-45p per kWh for electricity and 15-20p per kWh for gas until at least the end of 2024, with likely only a slow drop from those levels after that, but unlikely to see anything less than E35p/G13p even in mid-late decade purely because there is not a huge surplus of hydrocarbons available to tap into, building significant capacity is a 5-15 year project and Russia cannot be rehabilitated in a few years and more likely not for decades. 

badger09

Tristan74 said:

Ok I take it back.

I have just run the numbers myself and now I'm not sure what Octopus are playing at, Martin was completely right.

Using my actual usage data and, if I allow for a 70% increase in October and 10% increase in January, my next 12 months look set to cost me £3,280. In fact, even if I apply the forecast January price from today, my next 12 months will cost me £3,665. 

So why Octopus are quoting me £5,898 for the next 12 months? I get that they need to hedge their bets but this is 80% over the forecast.

What's the etiquette in these situations? I'm more than happy to delete the whole thread, if that's possible, or should I rely on people reading to the end and seeing my contraction?

Please don’t delete your thread. 

You posed a question which many users of this site have asked themselves. You got several responses, basically pointing out that ML doesn’t have a crystal ball & you made your own decision. 

Thank you for this latest post. 

You didn’t go off in a strop like some would have done. I’m sure it will be interesting to other readers. 

PS it’s good your estimated bills will be much lower than Octopus’ offer, but the advice to look at ways to reduce your consumption still stand. 

brickwall001

its best to always contradict advice given. no matter from who. take impartial views and make logical decisions looking at all the factors involved.

Tristan74

So in fact I have now been able to work out, that in order to get to Octopus' Energy estimated cost if I were to go to onto their fixed rate and pay their suggested monthly amount, they have increased my forecast energy usage estimate by 60% above the figures they personally hold for the last 12 months. I appreciate the need for a margin of error but this is beginning to feel like they are trying to profit further from the current situation by stockpiling my money. If you factor in the £400 discount I am due, they have increased my forecast usage by 72%. Immoral!

Spoonie_Turtle

Tristan74 said:

So in fact I have now been able to work out, that in order to get to Octopus' Energy estimated cost if I were to go to onto their fixed rate and pay their suggested monthly amount, they have increased my forecast energy usage estimate by 60% above the figures they personally hold for the last 12 months. I appreciate the need for a margin of error but this is beginning to feel like they are trying to profit further from the current situation by stockpiling my money. If you factor in the £400 discount I am due, they have increased my forecast usage by 72%. Immoral!

Is that accounting for the very high rates offered on the fix?  They don't account for the £400 regardless.

My annual cost on the fix they're offering us is literally double our annual cost on the SVT.  I know prices are going to shoot up from October but it's not predicted to be a 100% increase (yet)