Invest now or wait

AlanP_2

flopsy1973 said:

Been sitting on the sidelines for few months now with large amount of cash 300K to invest, cautious about the situation we are in, recession looming etc. Do I take the plunge and start feeding some or all of it in, keep waiting, or put large amount in something like CGT for now as temporary measure until we see the downturn that i believe is coming. Still have another large amount tied up with HL that also need to transfer over to something also in the coming months. What would others do in my position

Putting it in CGT is investing, albeit in what is perceived to be a lower risk asset.

Why do you need to transfer the HL pot? Will it to reinvest in same things on another platform or something entirely different?

What are you trying to achieve and over what timeframe?

dunstonh

Shame those dimensional funds are not available in the UK.

Dimensional offers funds in the UK.  Don't know if they are the same ones you are referring to though.

Millyonare

Plonking £300k on the US Nasdaq 6 weeks ago would today be worth around £340k.

Lastonestanding

Millyonare said:

Plonking £300k on the US Nasdaq 6 weeks ago would today be worth around £340k.

If you want to time the market, there must be a country somewhere that has a bright future.
But most of us don't have that knowledge. I did buy Facebook below 160 just hope I am lucky.

Prism

adindas said:

Audaxer said:

barnstar2077 said:

As there is no way of knowing if things are going to be better or worse at a given point in the future the logical thing would seem to be to invest everything now (assuming you are investing for over ten years and especially if someone has a bit of flexibility when it comes to needing the money.)

There is no way to know if things are going to get better or worse. However someone that decided to put a huge lump sum in at the end of last year would probably be wishing they had drip fed over the last 7 months. If investing a large lump sum all at once I would be more confident about doing it now than at the end of last year when most markets were at all time highs.

People put their money where their mouths are. Look at recent  numerous threads in this MSE, There is no evidence that those who have been telling people in this MSE forum to throw their hard earning cash £300k (say like in this case) in one go randomly are doing that themselves. At least they have not shown any screenshot of what they have been doing.

In fact many who suggest people to throw in one go do otherwise, e.g doing DCA.

Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Throw your hard earning cash £300k (say) blindly randomly in one go. If you are very unlucky, you might need to wait 20yr+ before you see a single penny profit. Observe this graphic

If you are going to use a graph to prove a point about this time period then you will likely need to create your own. The actual return over that 20 years was around 85% or 3% per year. Not wonderful but still something

adindas

Prism said:

adindas said:

Audaxer said:

barnstar2077 said:

As there is no way of knowing if things are going to be better or worse at a given point in the future the logical thing would seem to be to invest everything now (assuming you are investing for over ten years and especially if someone has a bit of flexibility when it comes to needing the money.)

There is no way to know if things are going to get better or worse. However someone that decided to put a huge lump sum in at the end of last year would probably be wishing they had drip fed over the last 7 months. If investing a large lump sum all at once I would be more confident about doing it now than at the end of last year when most markets were at all time highs.

People put their money where their mouths are. Look at recent  numerous threads in this MSE, There is no evidence that those who have been telling people in this MSE forum to throw their hard earning cash £300k (say like in this case) in one go randomly are doing that themselves. At least they have not shown any screenshot of what they have been doing.

In fact many who suggest people to throw in one go do otherwise, e.g doing DCA.

Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Throw your hard earning cash £300k (say) blindly randomly in one go. If you are very unlucky, you might need to wait 20yr+ before you see a single penny profit. Observe this graphic

If you are going to use a graph to prove a point about this time period then you will likely need to create your own. The actual return over that 20 years was around 85% or 3% per year. Not wonderful but still something

Well, you are missing the point.

From the graphics above, Say you were throwing lump sum £300k in 1930 just because you have lump-sum ready to invest at that time, you would not see a single penny profit even after 20yr+ observe that graphics.

You would not be in that situation when you do DCA. Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

Having cash as long as is not sitting idle but earning something is an investment. Say for instance you put 40% in cash aside while 60% in equity, in simple term, the risk is quite similar to Vanguard Life Strategy 60/40. Reasonable number of hedge funds managers are currently holding cash. Warren Buffet are holding $144 billion in cash instead of buying more stock.

https://grow.acorns.com/why-warren-buffett-holds-hundreds-of-billions-in-cash/

There are a few Regular saving Accounts are paying 5% interest; A few instant saving,current accounts are paying 2% interest. Yes lower than inflation, but you are not talking about holding that for many years. Also currently, it is a much better return than what you are getting from investing in equity.

Over the past 50 years (1972-2021) the average annualized return on the S&P 500 is 11.17% much better than the figure you have quoted. But did you get that return if you were throwing lump sum blindly, randomly and you very unlucky like the particular case I mention above ??

There is no evidence those who were suggesting people to throw £300k in one go are doing that themselves. At least they do not show their screenshot. There are reasonable number as this topics has been going on and on.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Sensible people would rather believe in authoritative source rather than random people on the internet. Let alone not in the investment / trading forum. But much better if rely on yourself.

Also there is no evidence that those who are suggesting that, are doing that themselves.

And anyway it depends on interpretation that is the graphics I created by my own from Yahoo Finance.

Swipe

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Audaxer said:

barnstar2077 said:

As there is no way of knowing if things are going to be better or worse at a given point in the future the logical thing would seem to be to invest everything now (assuming you are investing for over ten years and especially if someone has a bit of flexibility when it comes to needing the money.)

There is no way to know if things are going to get better or worse. However someone that decided to put a huge lump sum in at the end of last year would probably be wishing they had drip fed over the last 7 months. If investing a large lump sum all at once I would be more confident about doing it now than at the end of last year when most markets were at all time highs.

People put their money where their mouths are. Look at recent  numerous threads in this MSE, There is no evidence that those who have been telling people in this MSE forum to throw their hard earning cash £300k (say like in this case) in one go randomly are doing that themselves. At least they have not shown any screenshot of what they have been doing.

In fact many who suggest people to throw in one go do otherwise, e.g doing DCA.

Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Throw your hard earning cash £300k (say) blindly randomly in one go. If you are very unlucky, you might need to wait 20yr+ before you see a single penny profit. Observe this graphic

If you are going to use a graph to prove a point about this time period then you will likely need to create your own. The actual return over that 20 years was around 85% or 3% per year. Not wonderful but still something

Well, you are missing the point.

From the graphics above, Say you were throwing lump sum £300k in 1930 just because you have lump-sum ready to invest at that time, you would not see a single penny profit even after 20yr+ observe that graphics.

You would not be in that situation when you do DCA. Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

Having cash as long as is not sitting idle but earning something is an investment. Say for instance you put 40% in cash aside while 60% in equity, in simple term, the risk is quite similar to Vanguard Life Strategy 60/40. Reasonable number of hedge funds managers are currently holding cash. Warren Buffet are holding $144 billion in cash instead of buying more stock.

https://grow.acorns.com/why-warren-buffett-holds-hundreds-of-billions-in-cash/

There are a few Regular saving Account, is paying 5% interest, a few instant saving paying 2% interest. Yes lower than inflation, but you are not talking about holding that for many years. Also it is a much better return than what you are getting from investing in equity.

Over the past 50 years (1972-2021) the average annualized return on the S&P 500 is 11.17% much better than the figure you have quoted. But did you get that return if you were throwing lump sum blindly, randomly and you very unlucky like the particular case I mention above ??

There is no evidence those who were suggesting people to throw £300k in one go are doing that themselves. At least they do not show their screenshot. There are reasonable number as this topics has been going on and on.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Sensible people would rather believe in authoritative source rather than random people on the internet. Let alone not in the investment / trading forum. But much better if rely on yourself.

Also there is no evidence that those who are suggesting that, are doing that themselves.

And anyway it depends on interpretation that is the graphics I created by my own from Yahoo Finance.

I even got an email today from vanguard saying pound cost averaging might be an option to consider.

Prism

adindas said:

Well, you are missing the point.

From the graphics above, Say you were throwing lump sum £300k in 1930 just because you have lump-sum ready to invest at that time, you would not see a single penny profit even after 20yr+ observe that graphics.

I'm not missing the point, and I do accept that sometimes it works better to hold off on a big lump sum investment. I also agree with your earlier post that most people will drip feed as that is how they get paid. What I am saying is that the graph is incorrect, or at least doesn't tell the whole story, as it doesn't include dividends. Back in those days dividends made up a large percentage of the stock market returns. So with dividends included the graph decision might well be different.

In answer to your other question I have lumped summed a figure close to that amount after a pension transfer. It happened to be at an all time high and it dropped for a fair while before claiming a new high.

flopsy1973

AlanP_2 said:

flopsy1973 said:

Been sitting on the sidelines for few months now with large amount of cash 300K to invest, cautious about the situation we are in, recession looming etc. Do I take the plunge and start feeding some or all of it in, keep waiting, or put large amount in something like CGT for now as temporary measure until we see the downturn that i believe is coming. Still have another large amount tied up with HL that also need to transfer over to something also in the coming months. What would others do in my position

Putting it in CGT is investing, albeit in what is perceived to be a lower risk asset.

Why do you need to transfer the HL pot? Will it to reinvest in same things on another platform or something entirely different?

What are you trying to achieve and over what timeframe?

Hi 
Transferring the HL pot as it a very mixed bag of random active funds which I need to get rid off and transfer to new funds on iweb. Also the timeframe is 10-15 years to enable early retirement 

barnstar2077

Swipe said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Audaxer said:

barnstar2077 said:

As there is no way of knowing if things are going to be better or worse at a given point in the future the logical thing would seem to be to invest everything now (assuming you are investing for over ten years and especially if someone has a bit of flexibility when it comes to needing the money.)

There is no way to know if things are going to get better or worse. However someone that decided to put a huge lump sum in at the end of last year would probably be wishing they had drip fed over the last 7 months. If investing a large lump sum all at once I would be more confident about doing it now than at the end of last year when most markets were at all time highs.

People put their money where their mouths are. Look at recent  numerous threads in this MSE, There is no evidence that those who have been telling people in this MSE forum to throw their hard earning cash £300k (say like in this case) in one go randomly are doing that themselves. At least they have not shown any screenshot of what they have been doing.

In fact many who suggest people to throw in one go do otherwise, e.g doing DCA.

Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Throw your hard earning cash £300k (say) blindly randomly in one go. If you are very unlucky, you might need to wait 20yr+ before you see a single penny profit. Observe this graphic

If you are going to use a graph to prove a point about this time period then you will likely need to create your own. The actual return over that 20 years was around 85% or 3% per year. Not wonderful but still something

Well, you are missing the point.

From the graphics above, Say you were throwing lump sum £300k in 1930 just because you have lump-sum ready to invest at that time, you would not see a single penny profit even after 20yr+ observe that graphics.

You would not be in that situation when you do DCA. Many people are doing DCA naturally without realising it, as many people will need to wait for the following month before getting extra cash to invest.

Having cash as long as is not sitting idle but earning something is an investment. Say for instance you put 40% in cash aside while 60% in equity, in simple term, the risk is quite similar to Vanguard Life Strategy 60/40. Reasonable number of hedge funds managers are currently holding cash. Warren Buffet are holding $144 billion in cash instead of buying more stock.

https://grow.acorns.com/why-warren-buffett-holds-hundreds-of-billions-in-cash/

There are a few Regular saving Account, is paying 5% interest, a few instant saving paying 2% interest. Yes lower than inflation, but you are not talking about holding that for many years. Also it is a much better return than what you are getting from investing in equity.

Over the past 50 years (1972-2021) the average annualized return on the S&P 500 is 11.17% much better than the figure you have quoted. But did you get that return if you were throwing lump sum blindly, randomly and you very unlucky like the particular case I mention above ??

There is no evidence those who were suggesting people to throw £300k in one go are doing that themselves. At least they do not show their screenshot. There are reasonable number as this topics has been going on and on.

DCA in the bear market has been recognised as one of a smart strategy by authoritative sources. This is just one of a few examples: Smart Strategies for a Bear Market - Accumulate With Dollar Cost Averaging  (DCA) By The Investopedia Team

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417

Sensible people would rather believe in authoritative source rather than random people on the internet. Let alone not in the investment / trading forum. But much better if rely on yourself.

Also there is no evidence that those who are suggesting that, are doing that themselves.

And anyway it depends on interpretation that is the graphics I created by my own from Yahoo Finance.

I even got an email today from vanguard saying pound cost averaging might be an option to consider.

To be fair, Vanguard may just realise that some people need a bit of reassurance before they will part with their money!