HELP! Accept this fix? Or wait?

What_time_is_it

I'm really struggling to decide whether to accept the fix being offered by my supplier. We also handle the energy bills for my mother-in-law so need to make a decision for her too. Her gas bills are astronomical (she lives in a large old house on her own, but she is happy there and it would break her heart to have to move) so it's even more important to get that right.

We are both with EDF and have been offered the following deals. The standing charges are unchanged and I've put our current unit rates in brackets.

Us:
Gas -12.944p per unit / 27.22p standing charge (currently 7.282p per unit) Usage = c.13,000 per year
Elec - 44.75p per unit / 41.19p standing charge (currently 27.63p per unit) Usage - c.2,000 per year

Mother-in-law
Gas -13.023p per unit / 27.22p standing charge (currently 7.282p per unit) Usage = c.50,000 - 60,000 per year
Elec - 43.05p per unit / 41.66p standing charge (currently 27.63p per unit) Usage - c.2,000 per year

The fixes are until July 2024, so effectively cover the next 2 winters.

So, what do you think?
Do we take these offers now? Or stay on SVR?

Mstty

See if you can get a better switch and fix rate here

https://www.greenenergyuk.com/

Ballymoney

I'm in the same position and it's a very difficult one.

I can fix for Gas - 11.36p / 27.22p SC and Elec - 44.24p / 48.53p SC for 1 year.

I've calculated that over the next 12 months taking that fix will be approx. £500 cheaper than if I were to pay the predicted price cap rates (based on 23000kwh gas and 3000kwh elec) so paying more for the next 2 months will save a lot more over winter when usage is about 80% of the entire year.

If i'm honest I'm not sure i'd fix for 2 years. I'm happy to take the gamble that prices may start to fall again once the inevitable recession hits the world. Do you have access to a 1 year fix?

Your Mother's usage is extreme. Is she able to just heat the parts of her house that she uses to cut her gas usage?

pochase

Here is a calculation for your mother


71% increase seems to go against everything what Martin recommends, but of course the very high gas usage is not covered by his average. How much is the energy use for her for the next 2.5 months? What will you need to pay more for this? 

It total it looks like a potential savings, especially as a further increase of 0.5p for gas is expected in January.

For you I don't see much of a savings on the fixed tariff



As a final remark, I understand what you are saying about your mother loving her home, but is she really able to afford this type of bills?

What_time_is_it

Thanks for the advice guys. A one year fix would be a better option I agree. And the Green Energy UK one seems to be a decent one. Is there any downside to Green Energy UK? There are no exit fees that I can see, but might they go bust over winter?

We are exploring ways to reduce my mother-in-law's gas usage. First thing is a new boiler with better controls, but she has an entrenched attitude to having the heating on pretty much all the time for 6 months in the year and struggles with change.

Ballymoney

@pochase, I know you're being kind to spend time doing these calculations so I don't want to ctiticise them but are they not too simplistic? Should the comparison not be 12 months of the fixed price versus 2.5 months of current SVT + 9.5 months of Oct SVT? rather than a simple 12 months v 12 months?

What_time_is_it

Thanks for this detailed breakdwonn @pochase

"As a final remark, I understand what you are saying about your mother loving her home, but is she really able to afford this type of bills?"
- Yes and no. Her income does not cover her bills (energy will be c. £8k+, council tax is £3k, water is £1.25k!) so we will probably have to sell some of her things - antiques and the like. It's complicated, but it would break her heart to move house so she will probably, with our help, spend all of her money to stay there. It's quite sad really and causes us a lot of stress.

Ballymoney

We live in what I’d describe as a large 4 bed detached and used to have our central heating set to 21c 24 hours a day and used about 29000kwh of gas.

Definitely look in to getting a new boiler if the current one is old, make sure every radiator has a thermostatic trv valve on it, and turn those valves down to 1 in all the bedrooms and other areas she rarely uses. I’d be amazed if you can’t get that gas usage down to 30000 with changes that’ll have zero impact on your MiL’s daily life. Good luck.

pochase

Ballymoney said:

@pochase, I know you're being kind to spend time doing these calculations so I don't want to ctiticise them but are they not too simplistic? Should the comparison not be 12 months of the fixed price versus 2.5 months of current SVT + 9.5 months of Oct SVT? rather than a simple 12 months v 12 months?

You are completely right in theory. Just how many do you think know what they will be using in this two months?

Also it gets even more complicated, some of the 1 year fixed tariffs are in reality for more than one months,  many have a end date of now already August, so they cover 13.5 months at the moment.

Also not calculated into it is the further increase in January, and the decreases in April and July. So they will need to know what they are going to use each month. And will we get a mild or hard winter?

That spreadsheet will give somebody just an idea, they need to ask themselves this questions and decide after that.

Most people who will have all the answers to usage etc won't need the spreadsheet I do.

What_time_is_it

Thankyou Ballymoney. Getting her to accept ANY change is incredibly hard, but we are doing our best. (e.g. she is adamant that a water meter would be more expensive, despite the fact she pays £1,250 a year for her water rates and lives on her own, and it took years to get her to accept that she qualified for a bus pass and winter fuel allowance.)
We have got a new boiler on the way. Thermostatic valves would also be good so fingers crossed!

pochase

What_time_is_it said:

Thanks for this detailed breakdwonn @pochase

"As a final remark, I understand what you are saying about your mother loving her home, but is she really able to afford this type of bills?"
- Yes and no. Her income does not cover her bills (energy will be c. £8k+, council tax is £3k, water is £1.25k!) so we will probably have to sell some of her things - antiques and the like. It's complicated, but it would break her heart to move house so she will probably, with our help, spend all of her money to stay there. It's quite sad really and causes us a lot of stress.

That means for me she can afford it. She is just making a decision what is more important for her.

Any chance to do something with insulation, heating only some rooms etc?

Also £1250 water seems very high, is she on a meter?