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International property exposure - short term volatility

gm0
Posts: 1,153 Forumite

In my wanderings to create an overall portfolio.
I decided that the family home was enough exposure to UK property prices and I would not add UK specific commercial property or indirect proxies for UK residential.
But I started to look at whether international property yields had a role as an asset class diversifier in my DIY drawdown investment portfolio
So I looked at and started to monitor a couple of international property funds on trustnet and morningstar
I did not buy any back in March. These were not painstaking selected. A fairly basic look on platforms I use for funds of this type from a major provider.
The examples
GBP:EUR has gone from 1.2 to 1.18 over the same period. So it's not really FX.
And the £ is down against the base currency USD by 8%. Assume local currency Asia returns are FX back to USD so this sterling depreciation flatters the return if I have it right.
I still don't fully understand the interplay of what has happened here. I would like to better before using them.
My thoughts - clearly there is already trouble across europe and strong potential for more - fossil energy costs feeding through to everything compounded by GBP:USD and EUR:USD with crude priced in USD --> business failures --> property leases torn up in administration/restructuring --> lower rental income for commercial property holding companies -> lower predicted earnings for said companies -> lower share prices -> less favoured by speculation about it and lower P/E multiplier -> even lower share price.
Is that it ? What else is happening here. Have I failed to grasp a fundamental mechanism of this type of indirect property investment.
I hate breaking the Don't invest in what you don't understand rule
Thoughts
I decided that the family home was enough exposure to UK property prices and I would not add UK specific commercial property or indirect proxies for UK residential.
But I started to look at whether international property yields had a role as an asset class diversifier in my DIY drawdown investment portfolio
So I looked at and started to monitor a couple of international property funds on trustnet and morningstar
I did not buy any back in March. These were not painstaking selected. A fairly basic look on platforms I use for funds of this type from a major provider.
The examples
iShares European Property Yield UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (IPRP)
I started looking at it in the spring. -21.49% in 3 months.GBP:EUR has gone from 1.2 to 1.18 over the same period. So it's not really FX.
iShares Asia Property Yield UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (GBP) | IASP
This is down 1.2% over the same 3 months.And the £ is down against the base currency USD by 8%. Assume local currency Asia returns are FX back to USD so this sterling depreciation flatters the return if I have it right.
I still don't fully understand the interplay of what has happened here. I would like to better before using them.
My thoughts - clearly there is already trouble across europe and strong potential for more - fossil energy costs feeding through to everything compounded by GBP:USD and EUR:USD with crude priced in USD --> business failures --> property leases torn up in administration/restructuring --> lower rental income for commercial property holding companies -> lower predicted earnings for said companies -> lower share prices -> less favoured by speculation about it and lower P/E multiplier -> even lower share price.
Is that it ? What else is happening here. Have I failed to grasp a fundamental mechanism of this type of indirect property investment.
I hate breaking the Don't invest in what you don't understand rule
Thoughts
0
Comments
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@gm0 - sorry I didn't spot this earlier. I suggest it could do better with responses in the savings and investment board - I'm happy to flag it for moving if you want or you could just repost there if you haven't already.
In any case this message will bump you to the top and maybe attract some interestI think I saw you in an ice cream parlour
Drinking milk shakes, cold and long
Smiling and waving and looking so fine0
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