What would allow prices to drop?

fly-catchers

l keep on reading that prices are set to drop back (if only by a bit) sometime next year. But how would that be possible short of finding another gas source or a new nuclear power station going on stream. I realise I have over simplified the situation but can’t see any reasons going forward why it’s likely to change anytime soon. But more likely to get even worse.

EssexHebridean

Things calming down on the Russia/Ukraine front would certainly help. 

Astria

My estimates are that the energy companies are assuming things are going to pick up next year otherwise they wouldn't be putting £200 exit fees on fixed rates, as people wouldn't want to come off them. It's a gamble either way though to be honest.

pochase

One thing that will lead to the predicted small decrease in April and July will be lack of heating and such reduced usage.

Farway

pochase said:

One thing that will lead to the predicted small decrease in April and July will be lack of heating and such reduced usage.

Agree, the only way to reduce high prices is higher prices which force people to reduce demand which results in over supply & then lower prices to increase demand.

Which is what happened with the pandemic oil prices but it has now over shot plus the war

chris1973

We shouldn't have closed the coal fired power stations before having something solid to consistently replace their output, Wind doesn't cut it - far too variable, with output producing 20% of our grid needs one day, but less than 2% the next. The fact Jolly Green Giant Johnson was begging EDF to keep their one remaining coal fired power station open a bit longer "at any cost" kind of proves my point. Up to 60% of our Electricity is generated by Gas, and that isn't going to come down in price until at least 2025. We could frack Gas locally a little cheaper than importing it, but that doesn't sit well with the Green Taliban, who seem to think its far more environmentally friendly, to force us to import more and more Gas and build more and more Diesel powered tankers with which to transport LNG halfway around the world than frack what we need locally!.

markin

We just need time to build more storage, Europe to build LNG terminals, Everyone to build more LNG Ships, The high prices are expected to last at least 3 years.

Coffeekup

I think October's price cap will be the new norm for a good few year's. As much as I'll hate paying it, it'll make me more conscious of what i use as it will others.

In the last year I've cut back on 40% of my electricity and 50% of my gas usage, and I fell into the "low user" category anyway. But my future bills are still going to be £70 a month more than what I was paying 2 year's ago when I was using more energy.

I realize not everyone can cut back as much as I, but if every house In the UK can cut back 25% of their usage that's less resources needed, less strain on the grid. Ultimately cleaner air as we are not burning as much gas, waste and kitten's.

All these big warehouses that are shooting up across the country needs to be dealt with too, all the roofing space they have could for solar panels could provide alot of energy for that business in that building. Again less strain on the grid.
They could also harvest rainwater from these roof's to flush loo's, and what not. But all these big buildings with big car parks do is cause run off when it rains and floods elsewhere.

brickwall001

Aprils price rise was planned well before Ukraine war, and the October price cap was to rise anyway by a small amount, i believe it was 10%. and was estimated to fall in the 2023 april price cap. but this is all out the window. cornwall state likely 51% increase in october. there is no way it will fall in april 2023, like a smaller increase. and if it does fall in april 2023, it'll be IMO 5-10%. nothing to the levels of april 2022 price cap. i think prices we have now is the best we'll get and wont see it again for another 2-3 years. 

pochase

7.5% decrease vs the October cap is predicted at the moment. A bit more against January as there might eb a small increase.



Even with a further decrease in July we would still be almost 40% over the current cap.

tghe-retford

I am not so pessimistic about future energy prices and the one thing that makes me think that is the significant increase in exit fees for fixed deals recently. The fact they are rising suggests to me that they expect prices to fall next year and the fixes currently on offer will get so noticeably expensive compared to the variable unit prices that they expect people to end their contracts early. One quoted exit fee I have seen for dual fuel is £600.