£2980 New October Price Cap

Mstty

https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1538921682601222146?t=LSDdbNtlPKfPr_GyoDtF5Q&s=19

If Martin Lewis is joining the hype that the price cap may indeed be more than the £2800 used by Ofgem to scare the Government into the action they took then it might be worth people bearing this in mind when fixing.

Scary thought I hope it all ends up not being true.

QrizB

Thanks Mstty.

I hope this will turn up in a MSE article or in the weekly email before too long so that the non-Twitter, non-forum MSErs all learn about it too.

MattMattMattUK

Suppliers have already responded, EDF removed the two year fix that they were offering earlier today, previous unit rate for electricity was 34.something pence, now 43.12p per kWh. I suspect any fix less than 40p per kWh that is not tied to EVs will be gone already with all suppliers and some fixes may well end up over 45p per kWh.

LADYXXMACBETH

Trouble is if you fix now then your gas and electricity will be more expensive now...it's a tricky one. 
BG offering 38.something p for electricity. 11p per gas. 

jon1981

My fixed rate with EON Next ends next month, currently on 19.5p electric, 3.91p gas.

They are offering me at the moment NextFlex 27.66p Electric, 7.37p Gas with no contract with the wholesale market affecting the rates. 

Fixed contract with them is 12 month contract 38.22p electric 9.87p gas...

I seriously do not know what to do because £50 per month extra on fixed for 3 months - call it £150 but when the spike comes in October and my flex rate goes up would I then be paying over £150 anyway for the 12 months!

I know there's loads of posts on this but seriously its just carnage with energy  

superkoopauk

Martin said they were crunching the numbers and the latest advice will be in the email this week

Mstty

jon1981 said:

My fixed rate with EON Next ends next month, currently on 19.5p electric, 3.91p gas.

They are offering me at the moment NextFlex 27.66p Electric, 7.37p Gas with no contract with the wholesale market affecting the rates. 

Fixed contract with them is 12 month contract 38.22p electric 9.87p gas...

I seriously do not know what to do because £50 per month extra on fixed for 3 months - call it £150 but when the spike comes in October and my flex rate goes up would I then be paying over £150 anyway for the 12 months!

I know there's loads of posts on this but seriously its just carnage with energy  

Is it really £50 a month extra over the next 3 months in actual energy usage when heating should be turned off and less hot water is required?

pochase

If I split your £50 into  £40 for electricity and£10 for gas I have 360KWh electricity and 400KWh gas.

Assuming that the SVT for electricity will be 6p more and and that usage stays the same it will take 5 to 6 months before the 120£ for July to September is made up.

For gas it will be much faster, three months with the 400KWh monthly use, which will go up as soon as it is get cold.

So if my assumptions are not completely off you won't save any money this year, and only start saving in January to February overall.

Not sure what I would do when prediction are that the rates might come down slightly in April. As always, nobody knows what really is going to happen until Ofgem announces the new cap, and it is up to you what to do.

k_man

Mstty said:

jon1981 said:

My fixed rate with EON Next ends next month, currently on 19.5p electric, 3.91p gas.

They are offering me at the moment NextFlex 27.66p Electric, 7.37p Gas with no contract with the wholesale market affecting the rates. 

Fixed contract with them is 12 month contract 38.22p electric 9.87p gas...

I seriously do not know what to do because £50 per month extra on fixed for 3 months - call it £150 but when the spike comes in October and my flex rate goes up would I then be paying over £150 anyway for the 12 months!

I know there's loads of posts on this but seriously its just carnage with energy  

Is it really £50 a month extra over the next 3 months in actual energy usage when heating should be turned off and less hot water is required?

I agree £50 a month extra seems high, but @jon1981 may have very high electricity usage?

But not sure why you think less hot water is required/used in summer? Albeit the water needs a little less heating as starts a touch warmer.
I don't think our hot water usage is significantly different. 

EssexHebridean

If you use an electric shower you do see a definite drop in its running costs in the warmer weather in our experience - firstly as said less heating required for the water in the first place, and secondly we certainly tend to have slightly cooler showers in real terms when the weather is hot. Another area of at least a small amount of saving can be less dishwashing if, like us, your pots and pans get washed by hand - less "cooking" in hotter weather, more tendency towards salads or similar which don't require dirtying a pan. 

I have just done yet another analysis of where we are currently at with rates, where we expect them to go, and whether there are in fact ANY fixes which might now be worth it. It's getting closer, but right now, for us, my feeling is we're better off sticking on the SVR. The balance of the possibility of the current prediction still falling back at least a little, the possibility of even a slight drop in SC, and the "loss" on the higher rates over the next three months if we DID fix, against assuming that our provider does this time apply any increase equally across both our rates (last time the night rate more than doubled!) and that the electricity increase is lower percentage-wise than the gas increase means that we're probably going to be paying "cap roulette" for another 6 months. Of course almost all those things are variables over which we currently have no control. Taking into account the "free" £400 which is coming in, and the £150 which has already landed  as well - and that I have been setting aside an additional sum each month against future increases anyway, we can weather the storm for a little longer I think. 

The thing that really frightens me right now is "what if" we have a really cold winter - beast-from-the-east style. I'm going to suggest that the majority of regular posters on this board (note I said "majority" and "regular" - far from suggesting that this is an across the board statement) are better fixed than many to deal with another big increase - partly because we are likely to be more clued up about where things are going, and partly because we are also more on the ball with actual cost of use, but there is a huge swathe of folk out there who simply can't rob Peter to pay Paul any further to stand another significant jump in energy costs. A really cold winter though could genuinely see people freezing in their homes - not because they don't want to turn the heating on, but because they simply can't. 

ic

I'm on Octopus's Avro tariff.  The loyalty fix they offer me at the moment represents a 47% increase - so I'd have to take increased prices through to October now, to save only 4% (over the whole year) through winter into next summer - I haven't cranked the numbers, but I'm sure I'd be a turkey voting for Christmas accepting that fix now.