Too much energy?

anon_ymous

JKenH said:

waqasahmed said:

JKenH said:

In the event of a dispute (war) with a foreign power long distance interconnects would be an easy target (compared with say the Dambusters raid on the German dams in WW2 which necessitated significant sacrifice of lives). Interconnectors are not without their problems as we have seen with the IFA fire.

Fair shout, but this would surely just be excess power anyway?

So it'd hit us economically but we wouldn't be without power itself? 

I was thinking of the Morocco link which would be providing in the region of 10% of our demand. To lose that would have consequences.

Perhaps. I can't imagine Morocco itself or the UK itself goings to war directly with said nation, given that UK and Moroccan relations go back some 800 years, even if the country might not have been formally called Morocco at the time.

It's also the US' longest ally too, so a war with Morocco seems quite slim in comparison, especially given it's basically got the protection of one of the three big imperial powers (Not officially but I can't see why the US wouldn't defend Morocco given their history), which puts it somewhat off limits by other forces too.

Still, that could change but I reckon war at least with Morocco would be unlikely. 

markin

waqasahmed said:

JKenH said:

In the event of a dispute (war) with a foreign power long distance interconnects would be an easy target (compared with say the Dambusters raid on the German dams in WW2 which necessitated significant sacrifice of lives). Interconnectors are not without their problems as we have seen with the IFA fire.

Fair shout, but this would surely just be excess power anyway?

So it'd hit us economically but we wouldn't be without power itself? 

Sadly not, The uk is a net importer, Its an important part of balancing all grids in the EU, And all uk grid models rely hugely on interconnections even more in the future, it would likely have to be replaced by making and storing green gas to get rid of interconnections.

paul991

i think what  was meant was  a  third  country  ie  Russia china could easily damage a cable on the sea bed as would be impossible to guard

QrizB

markin said:

The last 2 days wind has hit 50%, So it could be wind we are exporting at times.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-20&&_k=kr4du9

That was last week, not this one.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-27

markin said:

We are flooded with cheap Gas from LNG, We are pumping it to the EU and burning it to send power as they don't have LNG terminals. But as we have no way to store it for winter the price will rise again when we really need it, And once the EU builds temporary terminals prices will rise. Spain has terminals.

i would be surprised if the EU can build sufficient LNG terminal capacity before winter arrives that the UK will cease to be an important part of the supply network.

Winter is only six months away, we'll find out soon enough.

anon_ymous

QrizB said:

markin said:

We are flooded with cheap Gas from LNG, We are pumping it to the EU and burning it to send power as they don't have LNG terminals. But as we have no way to store it for winter the price will rise again when we really need it, And once the EU builds temporary terminals prices will rise. Spain has terminals.

i would be surprised if the EU can build sufficient LNG terminal capacity before winter arrives that the UK will cease to be an important part of the supply network.

Winter is only six months away, we'll find out soon enough.

I kinda hope so in a way. Part of the hike in prices is due to increased demand post Covid lockdowns

Another part will be sanctions against Russia, and higher demand on North Sea gas. Though, even if we're not reliant on Russia, Germany sure is and effectively cutting off one huge supplier from the market has big knock on effefts

Another will be the war itself, even if there were no sanctions on Russia 

JKenH

QrizB said:

markin said:

The last 2 days wind has hit 50%, So it could be wind we are exporting at times.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-20&&_k=kr4du9

That was last week, not this one.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-27

markin said:

We are flooded with cheap Gas from LNG, We are pumping it to the EU and burning it to send power as they don't have LNG terminals. But as we have no way to store it for winter the price will rise again when we really need it, And once the EU builds temporary terminals prices will rise. Spain has terminals.

i would be surprised if the EU can build sufficient LNG terminal capacity before winter arrives that the UK will cease to be an important part of the supply network.

Winter is only six months away, we'll find out soon enough.

UK in talks to reopen giant gas storage facility for winter
At full capacity, Centrica's facility in Rough, Yorkshire can store between 10 and 12 days' worth of the UK's gas needs. Industry experts say that if they started work now, it might be able to hold up to six days' worth of the UK gas demand by this winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61633993

JKenH

markin said:

 The last 2 days last week wind has hit 50%, So it could be wind we are exporting at times.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-20&&_k=kr4du9

Also currently exporting on all interconnections including Orkney.

https://app.electricitymap.org/map?solar=false

By contrast overnight on 1st/2nd June wind was generating just 0.67GW and gas was supplying two thirds of our generation. We have to plan for worst case scenarios not best case.

markin

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

markin said:

The last 2 days wind has hit 50%, So it could be wind we are exporting at times.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-20&&_k=kr4du9

That was last week, not this one.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=7-days&start=2022-05-27

markin said:

We are flooded with cheap Gas from LNG, We are pumping it to the EU and burning it to send power as they don't have LNG terminals. But as we have no way to store it for winter the price will rise again when we really need it, And once the EU builds temporary terminals prices will rise. Spain has terminals.

i would be surprised if the EU can build sufficient LNG terminal capacity before winter arrives that the UK will cease to be an important part of the supply network.

Winter is only six months away, we'll find out soon enough.

UK in talks to reopen giant gas storage facility for winter

At full capacity, Centrica's facility in Rough, Yorkshire can store between 10 and 12 days' worth of the UK's gas needs. Industry experts say that if they started work now, it might be able to hold up to six days' worth of the UK gas demand by this winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61633993

If it takes 6 months to fix it the price of the gas to fill it could already be too high anyway, or do they mean it will takes 6 months to fill without fixing the leaks, Can they really blow £2bn-£3bn in say 2 months to fix it now, or would they fix it next year.

I would expect Asias demand to start rising again in july.

________________________________________

EU reveals its plans to stop using Russian gas

€113 billion for a "massive scale up in renewables" and new hydrogen infrastructure.

12B for Gas pipelines and LNG ports

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61497315