Am I looking at a 7x rise in energy cost since last year?

j.a.mcguire

September 2021, Avro went bust, I went from paying £62 per month, and got the cheapest fix I could find which was with BG Energy at £101 per month for 12 months.  A rise of 63% on the previous price I was paying.

I've just been checking the current fixed deals with EDF, and it looks like I'm looking at a bill of £244, which would be an increase of 240% from my current deal with BG Energy, or a staggering 394% increase from the price I was paying with Avro.

If I assume the £244 fixed is inline with the current cap rates, and inflate it by another 80% inline with the October price rise, I'm looking at a bill of £439.20 per month, which is an increase of 708% over what I was paying this time last year.

Am I way off on the last figure, or does that seem about right, given that my rise from Avro -> BG Energy was 62% when at the time they were stating the cap was increasing by 50%?  I am bloody terrified if so, that's £5,270.40 per year, that's an absolute fortune to me.  I am more scared for my parents who receive state pension only, and their bills are often higher, they could not afford to pay anywhere near that.

MattMattMattUK

j.a.mcguire said:

September 2021, Avro went bust, I went from paying £62 per month, and got the cheapest fix I could find which was with BG Energy at £101 per month for 12 months.  A rise of 63% on the previous price I was paying.

I've just been checking the current fixed deals with EDF, and it looks like I'm looking at a bill of £244, which would be an increase of 240% from my current deal with BG Energy, or a staggering 394% increase from the price I was paying with Avro.

If I assume the £244 fixed is inline with the current cap rates, and inflate it by another 80% inline with the October price rise, I'm looking at a bill of £439.20 per month, which is an increase of 708% over what I was paying this time last year.

Am I way off on the last figure, or does that seem about right, given that my rise from Avro -> BG Energy was 62% when at the time they were stating the cap was increasing by 50%?  I am bloody terrified if so, that's £5,270.40 per year, that's an absolute fortune to me.  I am more scared for my parents who receive state pension only, and their bills are often higher, they could not afford to pay anywhere near that.

What are your annual usage figures for electricity and gas? They will be on your bills.

j.a.mcguire

When I left Avro, they quoted that I had used 1742kWh of electricity and 16339kWh of gas for the 12 month period.

markin

The October price rise is expected to be 30% And most good fixes are already set at 15-30% more than the current cap.

j.a.mcguire

Well that's a relief thanks, so come October I should _only_ be looking at an increase of 394% still. 

I'm a bit concerned though because BG Energy have told me that they're expecting the price to go up in October, so my current strategy is to give them 30 days notice in August, and exit a month early in September to switch provider incase they do raise the prices further.

MattMattMattUK

j.a.mcguire said:

When I left Avro, they quoted that I had used 1742kWh of electricity and 16339kWh of gas for the 12 month period.

My rough estimate puts your annual usage at around £2,545 so monthly at £212, however that ignores the region specific rates and includes an estimate for the October rise. It also ignores any debt you might have at the moment. 

If you are looking at a fix however that could be at considerably higher rates, you are almost certainly better off sticking on the SVR.

Gerry1

You're confusing your DD with your bill. It's like putting £62 per month into a jam jar and hoping that there will be enough in the kitty to pay the bill.  There's no guarantee that the bill will also be £62: it could be £100 or more if the weather is cold, showers are too long, the thermostat is too high etc.

Instead, you need to think in terms of annual costs derived from actual meter readings, and then you can work out the percentage increase.

Sadly, going from a fixed tariff from a defunct provider to October's capped tariff often does mean a humongous price rise.  This time last year I was paying 2.0265p/kWh for gas, but in October 2022 it may be 11p or more.

Remember that the cap values only apply to average dual fuel bill: Your Mileage May Vary.

MattMattMattUK

j.a.mcguire said:

If I assume the £244 fixed is inline with the current cap rates, and inflate it by another 80% inline with the October price rise, I'm looking at a bill of £439.20 per month, which is an increase of 708% over what I was paying this time last year.

I have just re-read this part, the October price cap is unlikely to be anywhere near 80%, 35% is most likely, unless Russia cuts off all gas, in which case the lights will go out in most of Europe. 

j.a.mcguire

I'm not sure where I got the 80% from, I feel like I heard it on Radio 4, today?

Just to answer Gerry above, this is true, but at the end of the 12 month period with Avro, I was over £200 in credit.  So if I were to deduct that, it's approximately 4 months worth of credit, so £62*8 = £496.  £244 (current EDF quote) * 12 = £2928.  £2928/£496 = 590% (almost 6x!) new bill over what I was paying this time last year.

j.a.mcguire

I was £223 in credit with Avro which was 3.6 months worth of credit.

Ultrasonic

j.a.mcguire said:

I'm not sure where I got the 80% from, I feel like I heard it on Radio 4, today?

Possibly they said £800?