Fix Ending end of June, stick or switch advice please

pdej4

Hi,

Currently with Scottish Power due to previous supplier going bust a couple of years ago. Our current fixed tariff ends 30th June.

Currently using:

• Gas: 14000kWh
• Electricity: 3700kWh

With the likely increase in October and then again in Jan 23 I wonder if we're good to fix or not. I realise we'd overpay until at least October.

Scottish Power can't offer anything reasonable to us - all costing above (estimated) £3600/year where OVO come up offering something far better value at an estimated £3300/year (fixed for 24 months). Currently we've been paying £1300/year according to the Cheap energy club, and it will go up to £2346/year if we stay on Scottish Power's standard variable tariff.

Can someone help me with working out the cost of the forecasted rise in October/following January?

I think I was using the wrong way of looking at things (monthly DD), and it looked like we may as well move to the OVO tariff with the way things are heading as by the end of the year we'd potentially be paying the same/more. If there was another increase, we'd be protected against it and any others. The OVO tariff comes with a £120 termination charge.

The unit prices on Scottish Power's standard variable tariff is (according to Cheap energy club, I've not been able to find anything on their website):

Electricity:

• Unit rate - 27.627p per kWh
• Standing charge 44.741p per day

Gas:

• Unit rate - 7.282p per kWh
• Standing charge 27.216p per day

The OVO 24 month fixed tariff with £120 exit fees is:

Electricity:

• Unit rate -  37.5p per kWh
• Standing charge - 51.26p per day

Gas: 

• Unit rate - 11.2p per kWh
• Standing charge - 27.52p per day

Am I being silly considering the OVO tariff? Is it wiser to sit it out on the Scottish Power standard variable tariff?

Thank you in advance.

EDIT: transposed the gas/electric usage figures so they’re correct now.

Mstty

I would wait to see the announcement today from the government as to the measures of help.they propose before moving to a potentially costly fix👍

pochase

@pdej4

Are you sure your quoted usage is correct?

Currently using:

• Electricity: 14000kWh
• Gas: 3700kWh

Alone the electricity without standing charges would be £3868 on SVT and not £2346 for everything.

Electricity for the current tariff would work out to less  than 8p, long time since I have seen rates like that.

BUFF

possibly transposed the figures? - would be more normal type of breakdown.

pdej4

pochase said:

@pdej4

Are you sure your quoted usage is correct?

Currently using:

• Electricity: 14000kWh
• Gas: 3700kWh

Alone the electricity without standing charges would be £3868 on SVT and not £2346 for everything.

Electricity for the current tariff would work out to less  than 8p, long time since I have seen rates like that.

Good spot, thank you. I got them the wrong way round! 

I’ve edited the original post now.

pdej4

If someone is able to help me work this out that would be great. 

QrizB

pdej4 said:

If someone is able to help me work this out that would be great. 

OK. Based on your stated consumption of 14000kWh.yr gas, 3700kWh/yr electricity:

• When your fix ends in June, the SVT will cost around £2345/yr.
• The OVO 24-month fix will cost around £3243/yr. That's a 38% increase.

Ofgem are anticipating a 42% increase to the cap (and hence to the SVT) in October. If that is how things turn out, the OVO fix will be slightly cheaper through the coming winter (but you'll pay extra for the three months July-September). No-one knows what prices will be like once Spring 2023 arrrives; they could be higher than the October cap, they could be lower.

If you want the reassurance of a two-year fix, and don't mind paying (at least in the short term) £800/yr extra for it, you can take the OVO deal. If you'r prefer to spend less now and hope that winter isn't as brutal as Ofgem anticipates, you can stay on the SVT.

pdej4

Thanks for your help QrizB. This is what I thought the case was. It's a close call at the moment then, albeit perhaps not the Jul-September part. Part of me thinks it's worth the risk of the OVO to protect against further rises, with the knowledge that if it does get cheaper longer term, it's £120 (obviously cheaper to the point of making that payment worthwhile).