Another 'Do I fix or not?' question (Eon renewal)

pinkteapot

I know no-one can answer this as it all depends on what happens in October, but this is how our figures are looking based on last 12 months' usage: 

	Current	Next Flex	Next Online v14
Standing charge (p)	19.46	42.24	42.24
Unit rate per kWh (p)	18.31	28.02	38.37
Total ex vat (£)	573.46	923.04	1207.05
Plus 5% VAT (£)	602.13	969.20	1267.40

Next Flex is variable, Next Online fixed, both 12-months. Fixed is 31% more expensive than variable, but I'm seeing guesses that October's rise will be about 30%? If so, isn't it better to go variable as we'll be cheaper until October and then 30% higher for the rest of the year, rather than 30% higher now for the whole year? Am I making any sense? 

pochase

You already have done your calculations and I agree.

Also take into account that a CAP increase of 30% will not mean a 30% increase on electricity. The increase for gas in the April CAP was almost double of that for electricity. So 54% CAP increase, but electricity increase was more in the region of 35%. If that is the trend also for October even with a 30% CAP increase the increase for electricity will be much lower.

pinkteapot

Thank you. Yes - I should have said this is electricity only (we have LPG rather than mains gas so can’t get a dual fuel deal).

I know it’s just a gamble either way but the fix looks a bit steep to me. 

wakeupalarm

How much extra you pay on the fix between now and October has to be balanced with how long you have the Next Online V14 rates for. When does your current fix end?

BUFF

pinkteapot said:

I know no-one can answer this as it all depends on what happens in October, but this is how our figures are looking based on last 12 months' usage: 

	Current	Next Flex	Next Online v14
Standing charge (p)	19.46	42.24	42.24
Unit rate per kWh (p)	18.31	28.02	38.37
Total ex vat (£)	573.46	923.04	1207.05
Plus 5% VAT (£)	602.13	969.20	1267.40

Next Flex is variable, Next Online fixed, both 12-months. Fixed is 31% more expensive than variable, but I'm seeing guesses that October's rise will be about 30%? If so, isn't it better to go variable as we'll be cheaper until October and then 30% higher for the rest of the year, rather than 30% higher now for the whole year? Am I making any sense? 

The last prediction from Cornwall Insights that I read (admittedly probably a month ago) was for a rise in electricity SVR of ~20% come October (& gas ~32%).
Of course, that prediction is vulnerable to unexpected events in the interim & only hindsight is 20/20.

pinkteapot

wakeupalarm said:

How much extra you pay on the fix between now and October has to be balanced with how long you have the Next Online V14 rates for. When does your current fix end?

Current plan is up mid-June so if I wait until the last minute to renew I’ll have the prices quoted until mid-June 2023.