Premium bonds - interesting stats since the beginning of the year

MX5huggy

jimexbox said:

talexuser said:

We have all our cash in premium bonds. Here are real world results for 50k:

Me
2018  £600
2019  £575
2020  £850
2021  £325
2022  £150 so far

OH
2018  £500
2019  £875
2020  £550
2021  £450
2022  £75 so far

all £25s and a very few £50s along the way.

Stick your 50k in chase, guaranteed £750 quid. 

That they might pay 40% tax on. 

hangryconsumer

Why have you excluded Scotland but included Wales?

eskbanker

DaveMM said:

for the bigger prizes it looks like holding the full allowance does provide more chance of a higher prize

That analysis is flawed and misleading, in that over any sensible timeframe it should be roughly linear - are you ignoring the fact that the number of people holding the maximum £50K will hugely outnumber each smaller holding (according to some analysis last year, 43% of all premium bonds are held by maximum holders)?  In other words, any given £50K holding should win about twice as many prizes as any given £25K one, rather than it being a distorted spike like that chart suggests....

eskbanker

hangryconsumer said:

Why have you excluded Scotland but included Wales?

The geographic information appears to be truncated to fit the page, so it doesn't show all of the 'counties', just the top 25-30.

However, NS&I's approach to location mapping is highly inconsistent, so in the currently published big prize results they report Wales as one entity but Scotland is subdivided into Central, West, South, North East, and Highlands & Islands, while they show London, Inner London, Outer London, and (separately) Wandsworth, Ealing, and Bromley!  In other words, trying to analyse results based on location needs a more rigorous structured data mapping than that currently performed by NS&I....

jimexbox

MX5huggy said:

jimexbox said:

talexuser said:

We have all our cash in premium bonds. Here are real world results for 50k:

Me
2018  £600
2019  £575
2020  £850
2021  £325
2022  £150 so far

OH
2018  £500
2019  £875
2020  £550
2021  £450
2022  £75 so far

all £25s and a very few £50s along the way.

Stick your 50k in chase, guaranteed £750 quid. 

That they might pay 40% tax on. 

A couple both in the higher tax bracket could still max out their PSA of £500 in Chase, around £33,500 each. Obviously in separate accounts. 

Premium bonds have a place, but unless you've maxed out your PSA, there are better options. 

FatherTireseus

eskbanker said:

hangryconsumer said:

Why have you excluded Scotland but included Wales?

The geographic information appears to be truncated to fit the page, so it doesn't show all of the 'counties', just the top 25-30.

However, NS&I's approach to location mapping is highly inconsistent, so in the currently published big prize results they report Wales as one entity but Scotland is subdivided into Central, West, South, North East, and Highlands & Islands, while they show London, Inner London, Outer London, and (separately) Wandsworth, Ealing, and Bromley!  In other words, trying to analyse results based on location needs a more rigorous structured data mapping than that currently performed by NS&I....

How NS&I announce locations depends on how many bond holders live in the area.  In the case of Ealing, for example, based on NS&I's information,  there must be at least 100,000 bond holders living there.  But in other London boroughs there are presumably fewer which is why they may say 'outer London'.

https://www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/prize-winner-locations

I'd have thought that setting a limit of 100,000 bond holders in determining a location is a pretty high bar.  After all, no-one is going to know you hold premium bonds unless you go round telling everyone.   And if you do win the £1m prize,  the shiny new car in the drive (or whatever) may be more of a giveaway to the neighbours that you've come into money.

DaveMM

eskbanker said:

hangryconsumer said:

Why have you excluded Scotland but included Wales?

The geographic information appears to be truncated to fit the page, so it doesn't show all of the 'counties', just the top 25-30.

However, NS&I's approach to location mapping is highly inconsistent, so in the currently published big prize results they report Wales as one entity but Scotland is subdivided into Central, West, South, North East, and Highlands & Islands, while they show London, Inner London, Outer London, and (separately) Wandsworth, Ealing, and Bromley!  In other words, trying to analyse results based on location needs a more rigorous structured data mapping than that currently performed by NS&I....

Correct - only pulled the top few in as that was interesting - I can expand the reset

DaveMM

eskbanker said:

DaveMM said:

for the bigger prizes it looks like holding the full allowance does provide more chance of a higher prize

That analysis is flawed and misleading, in that over any sensible timeframe it should be roughly linear - are you ignoring the fact that the number of people holding the maximum £50K will hugely outnumber each smaller holding (according to some analysis last year, 43% of all premium bonds are held by maximum holders)?  In other words, any given £50K holding should win about twice as many prizes as any given £25K one, rather than it being a distorted spike like that chart suggests....

it is not comparing anything - that spike exists in the data (4 months) given the value of holding and prizes won counted. Not ignoring any facts not provided - if the other data was available it would make more interesting reading

Albermarle

JohnnyB70 said:

ScarletBea said:

Aren't premium bonds basically gambling? There's zero guarantee that you'll win anything/get any interest, isn't there?

You will always get your initial investment back. You’re of course entitled to view it as gambling, but it’s less risk than an ISA invested in the FTSE 100.

That can be disputed . Lets say inflation settles down to 5% pa for the next ten years.
£50,000 in PB's would on average get about £5000 in prizes . However due to inflation your £55K is now only worth about £25K so you have lost half the original value .
Normally ( not 100% guaranteed ) you would expect a better result investing in the FTSE 100, if only due to the dividends.

ScarletBea

Thanks for clarifying, I meant them compared to having your money in a bank, of course, not investing (in shares or funds).