How accurate is the estimated forecast on gas and electric?

farouqtaj

I was moved across from Avro to Octopus energy. I'd been with Avro since October 2020.

The last bill from Avro had an annual estimated gas usage of 21,842kWh. I've had 4 bills from Octopus since I was moved across to them and they each have an annual estimated gas usage of 23,732kWh.

My monthly direct debit has more than doubled since the new rates have come into effect. 

I live in a 3 bed semi and my research suggests that the average gas usage should be around 12,000kWh. A 5 bed house would be around 17,000kWh. I know these are ball park figures but my gas consumption looks like its off the scale.

Am I right in that my usage is excessive? 

I suspect the boiler, a 12 year old Vaillant eco tech, needs replacing. I have it serviced every year but I know boiler efficiency will reduce regardless. 

Any feedback, suggestions and advice appreciated. 

QrizB

Welcome to the forum.

you have posted in the "LPG and oil" sub-forum. Your question will get more engagement in the main "Energy" forum. Hopefully a member of the forum team will move it in due course.

farouqtaj said:

The last bill from Avro had an annual estimated gas usage of 21,842kWh. I've had 4 bills from Octopus since I was moved across to them and they each have an annual estimated gas usage of 23,732kWh.

Do you have two bills from approximately one year apart? What is the diifference in the meter readings? Are you able to convert those into kWh, and how does that number compare to the Avro and Octopus estimates?

I live in a 3 bed semi and my research suggests that the average gas usage should be around 12,000kWh. A 5 bed house would be around 17,000kWh. I know these are ball park figures but my gas consumption looks like its off the scale.

Am I right in that my usage is excessive?

If your annual consumption is 22-23,000kWh, it's on the high side. Whether it's excessive will depend on several factors, including the age of your house, how well insulated it is, what temperature you have your thermostat set to and how much of the year you run the heating for. It will also depend on how much hot water you use.

I suspect the boiler, a 12 year old Vaillant eco tech, needs replacing. I have it serviced every year but I know boiler efficiency will reduce regardless.

12 years is not "old" for a boiler; they will often last for 20 years or longer. Also there has been no significant improvement in boiler efficiency in the last 15+ years (my boiler is 16-ish and, when new, was 88% efficient; the equivalent current model from the same manufacturer claims 90%, a 2% improvement).

Take a good look at how you are using your existing boiler and see how you can reduce your use before going to the expense of replacing your boiler.

dunstonh

How accurate is the estimated forecast on gas and electric?

Not very would be the shortest answer.

You should use actual readings.   Set a computer/phone recurring task to remind you to submit a reading on the same day each month.   

I live in a 3 bed semi and my research suggests that the average gas usage should be around 12,000kWh. A 5 bed house would be around 17,000kWh. I know these are ball park figures but my gas consumption looks like its off the scale.
Am I right in that my usage is excessive? 

The average includes the people that barely use anything as well as those that use a lot.   e.g. those that have gas central heating but electric cooker.   Or gas cooker but alternative heating.  Or those that have both cooker and heating and have the heating on high.

Robin9

farouqtaj said:

I live in a 3 bed semi and my research suggests that the average gas usage should be around 12,000kWh. A 5 bed house would be around 17,000kWh. I know these are ball park figures but my gas consumption looks like its off the scale.

Am I right in that my usage is excessive? 

If you've been in your house for more than 12 months you have all the information you need to be able to determine an actual annual consumption.

Your just need todays readings and an actual (not estimated) one from your bills or your own records and then do some simple sums.  Electricity is easy  - take todays readings away from the old ones. Gas is a bit more complicated - as electric but multiply by 11 or 33 (depending on a metric or imperial meter)   and that will give a good approximate figure 

theoretica

If your boiler is 12 years old, how old is the thermostat and control system?  An upgrade there would cost less than a new boiler and might be worth considering to optimise the heat you are paying for to when and where you really want it.

MSE_ForumTeam5

We've moved this to the main Energy board