October price cap?

elsien

Sorry, I know this has already been discussed but I can’t get on with the search function any more.
I’m on the Octopus Avro tariff, and have worked out what my costs are likely to be in April.
Trying to work out if the Loyal fixed tariff might be worth a punt but I’m not sure if the best guesstimates for the October price cap.
Can anyone point me in the direction of the potential rates and standing charges if October goes as expected?
Thank you. 

Ultrasonic

The most recent estimate I remember seeing was the following, which was 47%. The uncertainty right now is HUGE though!

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/79027884/#Comment_79027884

QrizB

It's far too early to say.

February was a similar price to the previous period (see here) but the last 3-4 days have been crazy, double the typical wholesale price (see here, be careful to choose GBP not EUR).

Cornwall Insight (who have a mixed track record) are forecasting a 25% increase (see here) but it's far too soon to say whether they're right or not.

elsien

I realise it is very much “how long is a piece of string” but I want to do a few what ifs to get an idea. 

Sea_Shell

QrizB said:

It's far too early to say.

February was a similar price to the previous period (see here) but the last 3-4 days have been crazy, double the typical wholesale price (see here, be careful to choose GBP not EUR).

Cornwall Insight (who have a mixed track record) are forecasting a 25% increase (see here) but it's far too soon to say whether they're right or not.

Am I reading the Nordpool tables correctly?...

For the August 21 - January 22 period, the average price (per MWh) was £181.29 (add up the 6 prices for those months and divide by 6)

This is what the April 22 cap was based on.

February was £161.94, which is better...however
Looking at March, so far, the price for the first 7 days of the month average out at £310, not so good!

It that an accurate picture?  Or have I read the tables wrong?

QrizB

Sea_Shell said:

Am I reading the Nordpool tables correctly?...
For the August 21 - January 22 period, the average price (per MWh) was £181.29 (add up the 6 prices for those months and divide by 6)
This is what the April 22 cap was based on.
February was £161.94, which is better...however
Looking at March, so far, the price for the first 7 days of the month average out at £310, not so good!
It that an accurate picture?  Or have I read the tables wrong?

That is what the tables say, yes.

matelodave

I guess it depends on how long the war lasts and what sanctions and adjustments will be made for supplies from other sources. 

 I guess that if some companies who are are reducing or cancelling supplies at costs that they may have already factored in then they wont have the same capability to buy forward at those prices on the wider energy market in the coming months so its inevitable that prices will increase.

Banning ships from unloading will only exacerbate the problem and lead to cost increases and shortages. It will need a very clever man with a big crystal ball to anticipate what the situation might be in six months time.

wild666

The longer Putin persists with the war against the Ukraine and certain other factors, like the refusal to unload Russian ships with gas and oil, the more likely we are to see another large increase in October.

Leodogger

Can anyone tell me how to turn down my boiler settings to the recommended ones Octopus are talking about (50c water and 55c heating) to save you money?   I have a Worcester Greenstar CDi Compact and all I can see are status panels, shown below:  How do I turn them down and how will it affect the performance of my new boiler ?  By the way the picture shown is with the heating currently off !

MWT

On the dial with the radiator symbol, there is a little 'e', set it there and you will be about right for the heating.

schnegge_london

elsien said:

Sorry, I know this has already been discussed but I can’t get on with the search function any more.
I’m on the Octopus Avro tariff, and have worked out what my costs are likely to be in April.
Trying to work out if the Loyal fixed tariff might be worth a punt but I’m not sure if the best guesstimates for the October price cap.
Can anyone point me in the direction of the potential rates and standing charges if October goes as expected?
Thank you. 

Would also depend if you get any good fix offered... I fear lots of the companies have removed their fixes (which were slightly above the current price cap) since the 24th of February. 

I'm with EDF and all-electric, and the only fix I can get is at 53,36 per kWh for electricity, which would be a 82% increase compared to the April price cap.... 
On the 22nd of Feb I was offered one for 32p per kWH. I could hit myself I didn't take it, it seems so cheap now and over the summer months those 2p over the price cap would have been ok. 

We can only pray we won't end up with that high numbers, but I fear currently nothing is off the table