Finally seeing house prices drop?

propertyhunter

[Deleted User] said:

I said it a month ago, I was told I was fibbing. Houses all around falling in London. Of course the banks say no. Just check out Rightmove for certain areas in London.

This doesn't apply to Hillingdon or Harrow. 

lookstraightahead

[Deleted User] said:

I said it a month ago, I was told I was fibbing. Houses all around falling in London. Of course the banks say no. Just check out Rightmove for certain areas in London.

I certainly don't think you're fibbing. 

Owleyes00

My parents listed their house this morning and within 3 hours had filled all the slots on their open day. Obviously no one has made an offer yet but it doesn’t suggest the market is getting any less crazy, not in Hertfordshire anyway

Thumbs_Up

lookstraightahead said:

Thumbs_Up said:

lookstraightahead said:

Give me a 100 year old house over a new one any day of the week 👍. Most new houses are between 3 main roads, overhead power cables, no trees and unbuilt roads. In normal circumstances they lose value like secondhand cars.

so for many, the compromise is a new build as they can't afford older houses.

Horses for courses I suppose. Like to know how much it costs you to heat your 100 year old home especially with the bills going through the roof (no pun) this year.

A lot less than a new build (200 years old). With a new roof 10 years ago. 

I've got no problem with people buying new houses, but you seem to think old houses don't hold market value so I was giving you an example of why I don't agree that people buy new houses over old.

You made a gross generalization about new builds your opinion is floored. Let me remind you what you stated.

“Give me a 100 year old house over a new one any day of the week 👍. Most new houses are between 3 main roads, overhead power cables, no trees and unbuilt roads. In normal circumstances they lose value like secondhand cars.
so for many, the compromise is a new build as they can't afford older houses.”

My traditional new build (brick and plaster walled with wooden flooring) was sold at a 47% profit.

I didn’t offer an opinion about old houses I as merely implying that new builds tend to be more energy efficient thus cheaper to heat.  

There are many reasons why some people prefer new builds, one is not having to fork out for a new roof.

TonyTeacake

Ramouth said:

MobileSaver said:

Ramouth said:

MobileSaver said:

Fundamentally, the property market is based on supply and demand and while there will always be short-term spikes and troughs there won't be a general long-term downward trend until the supply side of the equation is addressed... and I can't see that happening any time soon...

If the general population believe that prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future they will hold off buying, reducing demand in the shot term, and therefore putting downward pressure on prices.

I genuinely do not believe that many people will hold of buying because they think "prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future".

Perhaps it would be different if houses were like say iPhones where there was practically unlimited supply and you could buy the same thing from pretty much anywhere.

Houses people want though are in short supply and people don't just move house on a whim; they have very specific needs such as a new location, bigger size or better environment - only the HPC zealots will sacrifice all those things for ever and a day just to try and get something cheaper.

I think I mostly agree with you.  Which is why long term I can only see prices going up. But possibly have less faith in the general population making sensible decisions based on the numbers in the short term.  I have always thought that if enough people think that a slowdown is coming, it will come.  It definitely felt like that was part of the driver in 2008.  Perhaps there is more pent up demand now though and it just won’t happen.  Who knows.  I have been surprised by every vote and election for the last 10 years so perhaps am not representative of the general population and therefore shouldn’t be making a guess!

Long term house prices will go up I do agree with you on that one. Now short term I do think the in the next year or 2 we will start seeing a big change in house prices. It's not just interest rates that matter or just supply & demand as we have to start looking at the bigger picture. Interest rates look like they maybe going up sooner rather then later so the BOE can curb high inflation and it is also affordability for mortgages has high energy costs being introduced from April and therefore higher costs for pretty much everything, this will surely impact people's spending power. Oh and let's not forgot what's going on in Ukraine as the effects of this are yet to be seen which could be catastrophic for many economies around the world.
 
We all know covid & the stamp duty holiday has accelerated the market but it definitely can't be sustainable. Also I wouldn't recommend for anyone not to buy a property to far from your work place unless your boss is allowing you to work from home or do hybrid as fuel and travel costs look like they are set to go through the roof.

The only thing I will say to the people who are thinking house prices won't decrease sharply that it is happened before and it can certainly can happen again so please don't be to surprised when this happens.

Thumbs_Up

There is one fundamental word that has not been mention that would ultimately decide if house prices will drop in value and that is recession!

HotPantsCruiser

MobileSaver said:

HotPantsCruiser said:

MobileSaver said:

propertyhunter said:

I'm surprised people are still looking to move and the market is buoyant when we could be on the precipice of war.

Even if we were "on the precipice of war" wouldn't that encourage a lot of people to want to move from urban to more rural areas if they could thus keeping the market buoyant?

I think a lot of people were caught out by the WFH mania, many will have lost promotions even jobs by moving too far from the office, people won`t be in a hurry to repeat the mistake IMO.

Hmm, yes, if we go to war then lose your chance of a promotion by staying in the countryside or lose your life when your city work or home is bombed - it's a dilemma isn't it?

What percentage of the hundreds of thousands of people who moved to rural homes last year unexpectedly lost promotions or jobs by WFH?

HotPantsCruiser said:

MobileSaver said:

I genuinely do not believe that many people will hold of buying because they think "prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future".

A large number of potential FTB`ers have never seem sustained price falls in their lifetime

What percentage of buyers (whether FTB or not) have ever seen sustained price falls in their lifetime?

Again, if people felt at risk in the city the price discounts would have to be massive to get anyone to live there, WFH isn`t a comparable scenario! It is hard enough to shift property in the city with cladding issues let alone property you would be at risk in.

MobileSaver

TonyTeacake said:

the effects of this are yet to be seen which could be catastrophic for many economies around the world.

Yes that is a possibility. So if it's catastrophic for the UK economy do you think that will make it easier or harder for most people to buy a house in the UK?

TonyTeacake said:

We all know covid ... has accelerated the market but it definitely can't be sustainable.

Which is odd because Crashy and the HPC crowd were gleefully celebrating the Covid pandemic initially as they were convinced this would lead to cheap houses for everyone...

Thumbs_Up said:

There is one fundamental word that has not been mention that would ultimately decide if house prices will drop in value and that is recession!

Yes that would probably affect house prices so same question to you: do you think a recession will make it easier or harder for most people to buy a house in the UK?

HotPantsCruiser said:

MobileSaver said:

HotPantsCruiser said:

I think a lot of people were caught out by the WFH mania, many will have lost promotions even jobs by moving too far from the office, people won`t be in a hurry to repeat the mistake IMO.

What percentage of the hundreds of thousands of people who moved to rural homes last year unexpectedly lost promotions or jobs by WFH?

WFH isn`t a comparable scenario!

You were the one who brought up "WFH mania" and the apparent "many" problems it caused but you seem reluctant to substantiate the claim or maybe you just missed the question?

What percentage of the hundreds of thousands of people who moved to rural homes last year unexpectedly lost promotions or jobs by WFH?

gettingtheresometime

I went to see a house on our estate which needed gutting and it went for about 10% over the asking price. 

Went to see another house and was told that an offer had already been made on it & the vendor was minded to take it. Strangely enough it's still on the market as apparently the offer was withdrawn.

strawb_shortcake

propertyhunter said:

I'm surprised people are still looking to move and the market is buoyant when we could be on the precipice of war. However, stranger things have happened to house prices in the past 2 years when we've faced what we thought were existential threats to humankind at the time...

What else do you think we should stop doing if we "are on the precipice of war"?