Energy Cap vs. Fixed Tariff - What should I do?

AP3

Hi Everyone,

I realise this topic is much discussed, but I would like your input on my specific fixed price offer from Scottish Power.

I plumbed in the figures from Scottish Power (SP) and the energy cap from April (Cap) into Excel, and it seems that their deal is actually cheaper that the cap:

	Cap	SP
E kWh	2030	1971.275
E SC	164.25	82.5265
G kWh	1332.17	1374.038
G SC	98.55	82.5265
Yearly	3624.97	3510.366
Monthly	302.0808	292.5305

However, this would leave me stuck with them until June 2023 (unless I pay the £60 exit fee).

My question is, is it wise for me to fix, given that there could be yet another rise in the cap in October, or is it more likely that prices will fall, and those falls will be passed on by energy companies to customers on standard variable tariffs? My thinking is the concept of the cap, in terms of the companies viewpoint, is that it is what they will charge, and they're unlikely to move standard variable tariffs lower than it.

Cheers,
AP

GunJack

what are the kwh rates per fuel??

QrizB

Scottish Power does have a "loyalty" tariff which is cheaper than the April cap. I can only guess you've been offered that one!

AP3

GunJack said:

what are the kwh rates per fuel??

27.19p for Electricity, 7.22p for Gas, and a standing rate to 22.61p per fuel.

I guess my gamble is the energy cap being lowered on October.

Boysstuff7

My fixed plan ended 2m ago back on British Gas variable. Just called them to get an update in light of the 54% increase which they mailed me to advise our D/D was going from £121 to £230pm! 
New fixed plan launched yesterday until Jan 2024 appears to be about 56% but would be cheaper than October’s increase of another 20% plus the Putin effect. Do I fix it? Service advisor reckons will only be around a couple od days before they pull it.

AP3

I ended up fixing. I figured there's too much uncertainty with Nord Stream 2 cancelled and everything going on in Ukraine, and I want to insulate myself against whatever happens in October 22. 

If by some magic the wholesale price plummets, I'll pay the exit charge and get a cheaper deal.

When you're paying £312 a month (up from £180), a £60 exit fee isn't much to put you off.