House price fall "accelerating"

DreamBreaker

tomstickland wrote: »

Oh yes, I happen to have bought my flat 18 months ago and pay a repayment mortgage. In my case the sums made sense because I bought for a good price and got a good deal on my mortgage. However, calling rent "dead money" that only a "simpleton" would pay is missing the point.

I called rent dead money as in my opinion it is, if you disagree please explain why?

However, I never called anyone a "simpleton" anywhere in my article, were you suggesting I did or did you mean someone else did? I certainly would not call anyone a "simpleton", everyone makes there own decisions for their own reasons, I simply do not always agree that their choices are the best ones.

m00m00

I didn't buy this place

it's IDENTICAL in every way to others available for sale (as it's a flat, and no not a crappy city centre newbuild).

and yes, prices here in Nottingham have largely been flat for 2 years and declining for the past year.

my point is, there is no universal situation applicable to all people at all times. People can only make the choices appropriate to them at the time. In my case I was moving to a new city, and only expected to be here for a 3-4 year finite period of time. I could have bought at any time, but decided not to. I have a good landlord with no worries about security of tenure etc.

perhaps I'm a 'simpleton' for preferring to have the money myself than give it to some bank just for the sake of saying I 'own' this place.

I would say rather than being 'unlucky and unfortunate' I've been rather lucky actually.

because I've been able to do other things than feed a banks greed during the past 3 years my net worth has actually increased substantially more than 10% per annum during those 3 years, so I'm in no way worse off than I was in late 2004.


in many cases buying is the right thing to do

overpaying for the sake of it, in an inflated market, is not one of these cases.

DreamBreaker

m00m00 wrote: »

yes, prices here in Nottingham have largely been flat for 2 years and declining for the past year..

Wow, I never knew that the whole of Nottingham has been in a falling market for the last year and stagnant for 2 years, considering the rest of the large cities in the country have seen fairly substantial price rises in that time, thats quite a shock! Are you sure you have got your figures right? I would have thought this would have hit the news at some point? Are there any statistics out there on the internet that prove that Nottingham as a whole has been in property decline for the last 2 years, when the rest of the country has experienced a boom? Please anyone, I would love to see them!

m00m00 wrote: »

my point is, there is no universal situation applicable to all people at all times. People can only make the choices appropriate to them at the time. In my case I was moving to a new city, and only expected to be here for a 3-4 year finite period of time. I could have bought at any time, but decided not to. I have a good landlord with no worries about security of tenure etc.

I never said there was a universal solution. I agree it all depends if the figures add up, and as you are adamant your figures didn't then you can sleep easy at night knowing you made the best decision in deciding not to buy 3 years ago. However, most people in the rest of the country would not be able to say the same as prices have risen substantially during that time.

m00m00 wrote: »

perhaps I'm a 'simpleton' for preferring to have the money myself than give it to some bank just for the sake of saying I 'own' this place.

Once more I would never call anyone a simpleton. You just have a different point of view to me, but I do respect that. It would be a boring world if we all thought the same I also agree with you in that this country is gripped with a fear of not owning property, we have a massive fetish with owing a property and until that fetish subsides people will continue to pay silly money for the sake of saying "I own this place"

m00m00 wrote: »

I would say rather than being 'unlucky and unfortunate' I've been rather lucky actually. Because I've been able to do other things than feed a banks greed during the past 3 years my net worth has actually increased substantially more than 10% per annum during those 3 years, so I'm in no way worse off than I was in late 2004.

Is it rude of me to ask what you did to increase your net worth by 10% per annum in 3 years? Maybe you could help me with my investment stratergy? Not being funny but I like the sound of that! :beer:

Badger_Lady

DreamBreaker wrote: »

Wow, I never knew that the whole of Nottingham has been in a falling market for the last year and stagnant for 2 years, considering the rest of the large cities in the country have seen fairly substantial price rises in that time, thats quite a shock! Are you sure you have got your figures right? I would have thought this would have hit the news at some point? Are there any statistics out there on the internet that prove that Nottingham as a whole has been in property decline for the last 2 years, when the rest of the country has experienced a boom? Please anyone, I would love to see them!

Not everywhere's been booming - it's easy to forget that published "house prices" are always based on averages. Pricey parts of Wiltshire, for example, have been at a peak for the last 2 years with very little growth. The property market hasn't been stagnant (people are still buying and selling), but it's largely been house-movers and investors, and the prices have remained fairly level.

Does anyone know a website that will realistically drill into local areas accurately? I assume that volumes prevent such a site being statistically relevant... however the BBC one doesn't seem to reflect any of my "local market" experiences and only covers very large areas.

DreamBreaker

Badger_Lady wrote: »

Not everywhere's been booming - it's easy to forget that published "house prices" are always based on averages. Pricey parts of Wiltshire, for example, have been at a peak for the last 2 years with very little growth. The property market hasn't been stagnant (people are still buying and selling), but it's largely been house-movers and investors, and the prices have remained fairly level.

Does anyone know a website that will realistically drill into local areas accurately? I assume that volumes prevent such a site being statistically relevant... however the BBC one doesn't seem to reflect any of my "local market" experiences and only covers very large areas.

Would we be suggesting that it is good ole London that is driving the national house price average up then? As that has definately been up over the last 2 years! Would not surprise me if that was the case!

You can try sites like www.ourproperty.co.uk which will show you the sale of the last house (3 months ago) for a particular postcode, however, sites like this fail to show if the house was extended and how many bedrooms etc the house has so its hard to use really. It just gives an indicator.

m00m00

nottingham's big 'jump' was between 2001 and 2003, when prices shot up. They had already started to settle down by the time I was looking at moving here.

I've been micro analysing 2 postcodes in nottingham for the past year, in terms of property marketed, time to sell, asking prices, actual selling prices etc, and it's been clear since april there has been a big fall.

I am certainly not against buying property, I just want to make sure I don't buy an overpriced asset in a crappy area, just for the sake of it. I want a home, not an investment vehicle.

oh and as for how I made money, I wouldn't recommend it, and it's not really doable now. Back in those heady days of 2003-2004, casino sign up bonuses were effectively free money due to the ease of winning, not any more.

DreamBreaker

m00m00 wrote: »

nottingham's big 'jump' was between 2001 and 2003, when prices shot up. They had already started to settle down by the time I was looking at moving here.

I've been micro analysing 2 postcodes in nottingham for the past year, in terms of property marketed, time to sell, asking prices, actual selling prices etc, and it's been clear since april there has been a big fall.

I would say there are others in Nottingham who will have experienced substantial property price rises in the last 3 years though perhaps they are reading this forum and wouldcare to comment! Unfortunately, no matter how much you micro analyse "2" postcodes, that hardly constitutes the "whole" of Nottingham. How many Postcodes does Nottingham have out of interest?

Within any large city, in a rising market, you still get some areas that simply stagnate or fail to rise, perhaps even fall! Just as in a falling market the reverse is true!

lynzpower

Wow, I never knew that the whole of Nottingham has been in a falling market for the last year and stagnant for 2 years, considering the rest of the large cities in the country have seen fairly substantial price rises in that time, thats quite a shock! Are you sure you have got your figures right? I would have thought this would have hit the news at some point? Are there any statistics out there on the internet that prove that Nottingham as a whole has been in property decline for the last 2 years, when the rest of the country has experienced a boom? Please anyone, I would love to see them!

Manchester & Stockport have seen rather substanrial falls.

DreamBreaker

lynzpower wrote: »

Manchester & Stockport have seen rather substanrial falls.

Since when, and what parts, my city has fallen slightly over the last 6 months but certainly before then it had risen substantially!

No one is really backing up the argument that we are in or heading for a property crash and not just a simple comparitively small correction! Why?

pamaris

DreamBreaker wrote: »

Since when, and what parts, my city has fallen slightly over the last 6 months but certainly before then it had risen substantially!

No one is really backing up the argument that we are in or heading for a property crash and not just a simple comparitively small correction! Why?

Because it would take too long. To really get down to the nuts and bolts of it you have to study historic asset bubbles and analyze the causes of this particular boom (cheap, easy credit, which has now dried up)... The "subprime mess" that we've all heard about in the USA is not the cause of all this. It is bigger than subprime. There is a massive credit crisis right now that is on a global scale, and it will take several years to unfold. However, the worst news is going to come out really fast in 2008- one after another companies are going to be reporting massive losses. Indeed they already are. There is no way the housing market is going to survive this. I personally see a large-ish initial drop- maybe 15% by next year, then several years of slow decline.

Basically, money that should have never existed in the first place, is disappearing into thin air. Billions and billions of pounds. Of course that is going to knock a few (tens of? hundreds of?) thousands off the "value" of the assets that this money had been supporting.