House price fall "accelerating"

boinging_2

Badgerlady - so now we come to crux of it. You bought at the top of the cycle.

If this whole debate on house prices falling doesn't bother you, why reply to the a thread on it?

I'll be honest with you, the current price reductions are benefiting me and will continue to do so as they happen. I to will be buying a home but when I do, it will be much better value for money than if I had bought in the summer.

dannyboycey

Badger_Lady wrote: »

Incidentally, I did buy 3 months ago

From your comments, I would never have guessed.

Badger_Lady

boinging wrote: »

Badgerlady - so now we come to crux of it. You bought at the top of the cycle.

I said I bought a house 3 months ago, not bought my first house. I've already benefited from house price increases on the sale of my last property, thank you.

I decided to join this thread when I read "Only a simpleton will buy something now when it will be cheaper in future" - I replied because I enjoy a good debate and saw an obvious flaw in this statement.

Keep 'em coming, boys!

boinging_2

Badger_Lady wrote: »

I said I bought a house 3 months ago, not bought my first house. I've already benefited from house price increases on the sale of my last property, thank you.

I decided to join this thread when I read "Only a simpleton will buy something now when it will be cheaper in future" - I replied because I enjoy a good debate and saw an obvious flaw in this statement.

Keep 'em coming, boys!

Easy come easy go. I to made money on my two previous property sales, but unlike you that equity is now rising by 6% in a bank account, not declining by 1.1% a month.

WTF?_2

Microstar wrote: »

This is very worrying for some people.

My sister is hoping to sell her investment flat in Leicester. She doesn't HAVE to sell, but it is not really financially viable any longer. Unfortunately potential BTL'ers seem to have deserted the market. There has been no interest in the flat at all in the last few months (and its a nice one in a premium area and offered at what she thought was a good price).
One problem is that so many developers have steamed into the market over the last few years that there is massive oversupply (at least in Leicester/shire) and not enough renters.

I think BTL has been propping up the bottom end of the market for a while and enabling the market to function, and now they are not buying its starting to look a bit grim...

If the property isn't economically viable then it's only a matter of time before she actually does 'have' to sell it. Unless she has massive reserves of cash she is willing to pour into it for an indeterminate time.

People who have argued that prices only go down when people have to sell places ignore the fact that the market is made at the margins. eg. If a similar house to yours on your street only sold for 'x' amount, it's highly unlikely that you will be able to beat it any time soon. The market has set the rate, doesn't matter why the house was sold the fact is that that is the market rate.

As for 'people will stay put', that's fine. But I somehow don't think that the house market was boosted by people moving houses for the fun of it in the past. In fact, in a rising house market is becomes more expensive and more difficult to trade up as the gaps in the ladder get wider. Falling prices will help those wanting to get a bigger/better house (as long as they aren't in negative equity) because they make the step-ups more affordable.

It was investment, speculation and Buy-To-Let that was really pumping the house prices. These sorts of buyers are exactly the sorts who won't be making purchases any time soon and may well be looking to dump their properties - especially after April next year when changes will (supposedly) be made to Capital Gains Tax regulations.

Anyone thinking of selling, sell now before the flood of properties drags down prices.

Badger_Lady

boinging wrote: »

Easy come easy go. I to made money on my two previous property sales, but unlike you that equity is now rising by 6% in a bank account, not declining by 1.1% a month.

If you insist on making this personal, I'll have you know that my new city is actually the highest-performing property area in England/Wales outside London at the moment, and all indicators are that it will outperform the "average UK housing market" in 2008 and beyond. Next-door-but-one sold 3 weeks ago for £20k more than I paid.

However, this debate isn't about you and me, is it? Since we're both MSE, I'm sure we have made the decisions that best suit us financially. Isn't it strange that everyone on this site can have that in common, yet repeatedly come to blows on this specific topic?

WTF?_2

boinging wrote: »

Easy come easy go. I to made money on my two previous property sales, but unlike you that equity is now rising by 6% in a bank account, not declining by 1.1% a month.

Well done - someone with the right idea of buying when it makes sense, selling when it makes sense and walking away with the cash. :money:

Falling prices help me too - I want to buy a house, I actually could buy a house but I'd be really stretched if I were to buy the type of house I want. Even buying a 'starter' house would cost me quite a bit in mortgage repayments, more than I want to pay for a place that I don't really love and might have to live in for years. So falling prices will make it a lot more affordable for me.

The fly in the ointment: The UK economy has become so dependant on ever-rising house prices that falls may well trigger an economic recession, putting all our jobs in peril. However, I've got a very good deposit and with the right price I'd be prepared to take the risk of taking on some debt.

WTF?_2

Badger_Lady wrote: »

I said I bought a house 3 months ago, not bought my first house. I've already benefited from house price increases on the sale of my last property, thank you.

I decided to join this thread when I read "Only a simpleton will buy something now when it will be cheaper in future" - I replied because I enjoy a good debate and saw an obvious flaw in this statement.

Keep 'em coming, boys!

Actually, assuming you sold one house to move into a 'better' one, then the rise in the value of your property hasn't been realised. It will only be realised at such time as you come to sell your 'final' top-end property and trade down, rent, or move to another housing market.

By the time you find yourself in such a situation, the house market could be anywhere and there's no guarantee that your return on investment will be any better than alternative options.

If one had the funds to buy right now with an eye to investment, it would indeed be pretty stupid to put them into housing at a time when the price trend has reversed.

If on the other hand you want a home where you are going to live into the foreseeable future, you see a house you like and you can afford the repayments (leaving some margin in for increased costs) then by all means do so. Over the course of 20 years you probably won't lose out, even buying close to the peak of the market which we have just passed.

boinging_2

!!!!!! - Cannot disagree with one word you type... All sensible stuff.:beer:

Badgerlady - Which city? I'm just annoyed that people think that house prices won't fall and we'll be alright even if they do. There has to be winners and loses in any market dynamic. I hope with falling prices, the winners are people get to buy their own homes again and all the speculators lose out.

Badger_Lady

boinging wrote: »

!!!!!! - Cannot disagree with one word you type... All sensible stuff.:beer:

Hear-hear!

boinging wrote: »

Badgerlady - Which city? I'm just annoyed that people think that house prices won't fall and we'll be alright even if they do.

Sorry, this is the best link I can find at the moment: http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/news/feature-news/2007/12/01/uk-property-facts-91466-20186764/. City of Newport, with massive redevelopment in progress (including 2 new shopping centres and a Uni campus) and hosting the Ryder Cup in 2010.

I'd be delighted if you can find more information on this

Of course, this is far from a guarantee, but it's not a bad place to have moved to... particularly since I'm comfortably affording my 5-bed period townhouse here which, as a single lady, I'm very unlikely to outgrow any time soon (therefore no need to sell during this downturn, even if I get into valuation-based negative equity).