Fix or Flex Octopus Loyalty

Fingersoffish

Hi All -

I'm currently on Octopus Flexi paying £107 a month (Up from £80 a month back in September 21') and have been offered a 12 mo fix at £186.02 P/M. Its a huge increase but we could 'just about' manage it as a monthly payment (any more and I don't know what we'd do).

The problem is the switch will be instant as a current customer and its an extra £240 to find between now and april! 

BUT Given the monumental rises coming in April/Nov I'm not sure whether to fix or hold off to see if the government intervene (surely they have no choice with so many in fuel poverty?)

Does anyone know something I don't? Or are we all gamblers!

ProDave

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

Fingersoffish

ProDave said:

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

Okay --

Crunching the numbers it doesn't look worth it.

Whilst I can get Electricity fixed at around +32% above the capped SVR, the current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

bristolleedsfan

Fingersoffish said:

ProDave said:

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

he current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

Would mean paying more than double for gas usage until possibly middle april

ProDave

bristolleedsfan said:

Fingersoffish said:

ProDave said:

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

he current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

Would mean paying more than double for gas usage until possibly middle april

When I discussed this with Octopus they agreed to put me on the Loyal Octopus fixed but not starting until the end of February.

Agreed the fixed price offered on gas at +110% does not look appealing.  I HOPE come April we are not looking back on that as a "missed cheap rate"

bristolleedsfan

ProDave said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Fingersoffish said:

ProDave said:

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

he current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

Would mean paying more than double for gas usage until possibly middle april

When I discussed this with Octopus they agreed to put me on the Loyal Octopus fixed but not starting until the end of February.

Agreed the fixed price offered on gas at +110% does not look appealing.  I HOPE come April we are not looking back on that as a "missed cheap rate"

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78914744/#Comment_78914744  You are all electric heating, negative comments about loyalty 12 month in comparison to flexible tariff relate to gas coldest months of the year.

O/P is currently on flexible, as O/P says  "The problem is the switch will be instant as a current customer"

Did you change from flexible to fixed to take effect from end of February as opposed to existing fix ending end February ???

ProDave

bristolleedsfan said:

ProDave said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Fingersoffish said:

ProDave said:

FORGET the monthly cost.  Look at the price per kWh

For me, the Loyal Octopus rate on offer works out at just under 40% more than the present capped SVR.  So I have taken the gamble and gone for the Loyal Octopus fixed.

If by some miracle the SVR rises by less than 40% in April (when all forecasts are suggesting 50%) then there is no exit fee with Octopus so in theory I could exit the fixed rate and go back to the SVR

If there was only a 40% rise in SVR in April the fixed rate for me would be break even, but I would remain on it to protect me from any further rise in October.

I would never have thought I would see the day when I thought limiting my rise in energy cost to "only 40%" would be an achievement.

he current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

Would mean paying more than double for gas usage until possibly middle april

When I discussed this with Octopus they agreed to put me on the Loyal Octopus fixed but not starting until the end of February.

Agreed the fixed price offered on gas at +110% does not look appealing.  I HOPE come April we are not looking back on that as a "missed cheap rate"

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78914744/#Comment_78914744  You are all electric heating, negative comments about loyalty 12 month in comparison to flexible tariff relate to gas coldest months of the year.

O/P is currently on flexible, as O/P says  "The problem is the switch will be instant as a current customer"

Did you change from flexible to fixed to take effect from end of February as opposed to existing fix ending end February ???

Yes I am all electric.  I switched from SVR to Flexible Octopus to take effect from end of February.  So I will only over pay compared to SVR for one month before I hopefully get a saving compared to the post April SVR

facade

Fingersoffish said:

Okay --

Crunching the numbers it doesn't look worth it.

Whilst I can get Electricity fixed at around +32% above the capped SVR, the current fix offered for gas is +110% at 8.38p/Kw/h

I'm in the same boat- should I go for the Octopus loyalty fix, and hope I will win over the next 12 months, or chance the capped rates? I use a lot of gas, (50% more than the imaginary capped household) so the 100% increase in gas prices skews the loyalty fix to +60% for me

Like other still viable firms, Octopus have a lot of money to make up, so I'm taking the "5% above wholesale" talk with a pinch of salt, and assuming they will jump to the capped rates on the variable tarif, like everyone else.

The wholesale price of gas is actually around 7p/kwh at the moment- and if/when Russia invade Ukraine it is going to shoot up again.

Be nice if the capped rates were actually capped and transparent rather than hidden inside an imaginary figure, we are possibly assuming that electric and gas will both go up by 50%, electric from 21 to 30p and gas from 4p to 6p but what if the increase is mainly on gas, and takes gas nearer to 8p/kwh? The overall bill is increasing by 50% remember, they make it really hard to find out unit rates, and no-one has forecast what they might be.

EDIT: QrizB had a go at forecasting on here and has estimated 8.5p gas 31.4 electric in April, so with those estimates, the Octopus loyalty fix is a winner on electric, and near enough equal on gas. https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78903593/#Comment_78903593

I suspect 8p for gas is what Octopus are thinking.

I am informed by friends that Octopus variable doesn't actually track prices anyway, but simply increases twice a year- ( after the cap is set ) so the variable is going to shoot up to the new cap in April anyway

I'm leaning towards the loyalty fix, there is zero exit fee, so I can jump back to capped rates if the cap on gas is 6p- I use 16,000 kwh so that is £320!!!, but we are moving into the low usage period of the year, and there will be another cap set before the high usage starts...............

I also have the promise it wont start until 11th March, so I'd only have 3 weeks massively above the current cap, I suppose I could shiver in the cold silent darkness...

facade

I crunched the numbers today, and for the Midlands, I work the capped rates out at

Electricity SC   48.127             unit price   27.865

Gas          SC  27.220              unit price   7.367

I took the Octopus loyalty fix at Elec   SC 25.085   unit price 27.962

                                                  gas    SC 26.103  unit price 8.4

On the face of it, I lost big time

BUT- This cap is only until October when it may (will I suspect) rocket up again (or until OFGEM decide it needs to go up if we go to war with Russia)

Taking my consumption From April to end of September (1800 electricity 4000 gas), and 6 months standing charge, I win over that period by £1.04!

It depends on how close Octopus mirror the April cap in their SVT.

I'm staying on the fix, and I'll keep a close eye out for a cheaper fix to jump to, if the October cap stays the same or goes down I will have to try and get the SVT.

QrizB

facade said:

Taking my consumption From April to end of September (1800 electricity 4000 gas), and 6 months standing charge, I win over that period by £1.04!

That's the spirit

Your electricity fix is OK, pretty close to the variable cap. It's the gas that's high.

I think Octopus let you split your tariffs; you could ask to keep fixed electricity tariff but switch your gas back to Flexible?

facade

QrizB said:

facade said:

Taking my consumption From April to end of September (1800 electricity 4000 gas), and 6 months standing charge, I win over that period by £1.04!

That's the spirit

Your electricity fix is OK, pretty close to the variable cap. It's the gas that's high.

I think Octopus let you split your tariffs; you could ask to keep fixed electricity tariff but switch your gas back to Flexible?

I will more than likely win from October anyway, but thanks for the idea, I could just look out for a better gas fix.

I don't know what happened with the VAT, my figures did include it, but I don't remember multiplying by 1.05 I must be going senile