National solar power within 10 years (national grid supply)?

newhit

Going thru various quotes for my home solar panel cost options and installation possibilities (and if I can pay the installation costs, hpp, etc...... ouch!). My daughter (farm owner, animal welfare, horse stabling, vegan, tree planter, etc, etc) has had solar for a few years now and is a committed champion of said power supply (inc payback to the grid)...........BUT!........... if I commit, am I not falling into a trap of, "It was always going to happen", in relation to the national power barons changing to solar (or renewables) within 10-15 years anyway, not far off "some" solar power guarantee limitations (check the so called life time warranty small print!). My daughters situation, as a country dweller also enhances her peace of mind in that she is self supplying her personal requirements. I'm aware of the impending energy price hikes in the next few weeks and months for a lot of people, already eating into family budgets (apologies if you're already having to sort out your daily heating, lighting, cooking, or other daily routine priorities). Just a general question...........be gentle!

Verdigris

Solar will only ever be part of the mix, in the UK, because of the diurnal and seasonal characteristics. In short, most is produced in daytime, in summer, when we need the least electricty.

The only way to, partially, change this equation is short-term and seasonal storage.

JC_Derby

What are you asking exactly?as it isn’t immediately clear to me.

newhit

My daughter is country but I'm a townie. Her satisfaction in what she has committed to (inc battery for nights and no sun days) is plain for our family to see. But, as a townie, do I really need to commit myself atm? I keep getting these "what ifs", and my initial outlay related to future energy cost affordability keeps pulling me back from pressing the "send" button.
   Cheers, and thanx for the replies.

Verdigris

You get the same electricity and sunshine in towns and rural areas.

newhit

No, you're missing my point. My daughters' situation, with or without sunshine is much more reliable energy wise, now that she has taken the plunge (chickens, turkeys, horses, veg, water purity, farm maintenance, etc). Am I not going to lose the benefit of taking the plunge now, with the initial price of installation and guarantees, as a townie, with what will be the long term evening out of energy costs. People who don't bother now don't lose out eventually anyway. 

[Deleted User]

newhit said:

No, you're missing my point. My daughters' situation, with or without sunshine is much more reliable energy wise, now that she has taken the plunge (chickens, turkeys, horses, veg, water purity, farm maintenance, etc). Am I not going to lose the benefit of taking the plunge now, with the initial price of installation and guarantees, as a townie, with what will be the long term evening out of energy costs. People who don't bother now don't lose out eventually anyway. 

If you are suggesting that installing PV solar now is not going to pay for itself then you are mistaken. The Government no longer subsidises installations; however, you can still get a reasonable return on investment subject to any site constraints (eg; the size of your roof; shading; location etc). 

Let us assume that you pay £5,000 for a 4kWp array that outputs 3600kWh a year. If you can make use of half of this  solar energy in your home then the savings/income are broadly as follows:

Grid savings = 1800kWh at say 30p/kWh or £540/year

Export income = 1800kWhs at £.05/kWh or £90/year

Total Savings and Income = £630/year

In simple terms, your investment should break even in 5000/630 = 7.9 years at today’s electricity cost.

newhit

OK, in 7.9 years wont my energy bills be low anyway, due to technology advances reducing supply cost. I need 16 panels (space, shading not a problem) and the cost (only 2 estimates so far) is £13000 to £15000, inc fully enhanced battery for my monthly reqs of 570Kw.  However, in 7.9 years wont I look back and think that I should have kept the old system because those around me who didn't bother are (in 7.9 years) paying low enough ( household income related power requirements) to not need to "solarise" their requirements? 

Rodders53

Dolor said:  In simple terms, your investment should break even in 5000/630 = 7.9 years at today’s electricity cost.

10.7 years at the current capped circa 21p/kWh electricity prices, surely?

15p/kWh last year would have taken nearly 14 years to pay back (and likely need a new inverter within that timescale, I've read?).  So more investment will be needed to maintain any system over time.

It may well be 30p come April, though?  Or maybe not?

In doing such investment payback calcs should one not allow for the lost interest, as well? 

QrizB

newhit said:

OK, in 7.9 years wont my energy bills be low anyway, due to technology advances reducing supply cost.

Maybe, maybe not. I'd generally go with "not".

newhit said:

I need 16 panels (space, shading not a problem) and the cost (only 2 estimates so far) is £13000 to £15000, inc fully enhanced battery for my monthly reqs of 570Kw.

With a 4kWp system generating 3600kWh annually, you'll use maybe 1200kWh directly. The remaining 2400kWh could be retained by your battery (in practice it'll be less).

A battery is unlikely to last longer than 10 years, so you're paying £8000-£10000 for not more than 24000kWh of electricity - between 33p and 42p/kWh, at best. That's not a great price.

If you forget the battery and simply fit the panels, you'll spend less and pay back faster.

newhit said:

in 7.9 years wont I look back and think that I should have kept the old system

"Old system"? How are you currently generating electricity?

newhit said:

because those around me who didn't bother are (in 7.9 years) paying low enough ( household income related power requirements) to not need to "solarise" their requirements? 

I'm not sure what your neighbours, their incomes or energy requirements have got to do with this? Could you explain please?

[Deleted User]

Rodders53 said:

Dolor said:  In simple terms, your investment should break even in 5000/630 = 7.9 years at today’s electricity cost.

10.7 years at the current capped circa 21p/kWh electricity prices, surely?

15p/kWh last year would have taken nearly 14 years to pay back (and likely need a new inverter within that timescale, I've read?).  So more investment will be needed to maintain any system over time.

It may well be 30p come April, though?  Or maybe not?

In doing such investment payback calcs should one not allow for the lost interest, as well? 

I was trying to keep it simple! If interest loss is going to be taken into account then so should the future cost of electricity. I am not sure that the OP is that convinced about solar PV. There may also be some confusion about solar outputs. Based on my December target output from a 7kWp array, I would need a 35kWp array on my roof to produce an output of 570kWh. The bulk of my December energy comes from the Grid. Indeed, looking back at my monthly stats the only months with a predicted solar output of 570kWh or more are April ; May; June and July.

Having a battery also extends the payback calculations as the cost of the battery will, in many cases, exceed the cost of the solar array. Any payback calculations involving a battery also need to take a 10% round trip loss into account.