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Martin Lewis: The rise in the energy price cap next April will still be cheaper than any fixed deal

An inevitable rise in the energy price cap next April will likely still see households paying less than any of the cheapest fixed tariffs right now, predicts MoneySavingExpert.com founder Martin Lewis. 

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Martin Lewis: The rise in the energy price cap next April will likely still be cheaper than any fixed deal - so stay put and do nothing


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  • Astria
    Astria Posts: 1,448 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Name Dropper
    "Will LIKELY still be cheaper"

    In other words, like every other news story and "expert", they don't know and realistically, can't know.

    I'd put it more like: If you want a guarantee how much you will be paying for your energy then move onto a fixed deal, but notice that there's a good chance you'll end up paying more as a result!
  • meinnit
    meinnit Posts: 929 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 3 December 2021 at 6:55PM
    Although I agree with sticking with the cap for now it's a brave claim by Martin for a blanket stick for all. If wholesale prices don't come down and more suppliers collapse, there could be a huge increase next October and a 6p gas fix may start to look cheap. Who knows
  • QrizB
    QrizB Posts: 15,139 Forumite
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    edited 5 December 2021 at 12:58PM
    It was pointed out in another thread that E.ON Next are currently offering a loyalty fix "Fix to 2023 v2" that's only ~£100/yr more expensive than the current cap. That's definitely cheaper than Martin's estimate of the April cap.
    In my region it's 2p/kWh more expensive than their NextFlex variable tariff for electricity and 0.5p/kWh more for gas; the standing charges are roughly the same.
    N. Hampshire, he/him. Octopus Intelligent Go elec & Tracker gas / Shell (now TT) BB / Lebara mobi. Ripple Kirk Hill member.
    2.72kWp PV facing SSW installed Jan 2012. 11 x 247w panels, 3.6kw inverter. 33MWh generated, long-term average 2.6 Os.
    Not exactly back from my break, but dipping in and out of the forum.
    Ofgem cap table, Ofgem cap explainer. Economy 7 cap explainer. Gas vs E7 vs peak elec heating costs, Best kettle!
  • donny-gal
    donny-gal Posts: 4,660 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    So in effect, when our fixed price with BG ends at the end of January, then just stay with them on their variable tariff?  Even though when I run through the Energy Club it suggesting variable with Utility Warehouse?
    Member #8 of the SKI-ers Club
    Why is it I have less time now I am retired then when I worked?
  • martyp
    martyp Posts: 1,067 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts Combo Breaker
    I'm still worried about this as much as most others. I was with Green and due to SOLR am now with Shell. Here's my maths on it which may be way out:
    Green was £605 a year
    Shell now £845 a year

    So with the above being the variable/cap there are ominous predictions of the price cap being more frequently reviewed and that in April it could increase by 40%
    On that basis a 40% increase on £845 would be £1139 on the assumption my supplier will jump their variable rate to the price cap the second they are able to (likely if making losses with the current one).
    For me the best fixed rate is for 2 years at £1183 with Scottish Power which also offers £41.50 cashback with Topcashback so potentially £1141.50

    So potentially a £2 increase for a 2 year fix over the possible 40% increase in April. Factor in the £60 exit fee (I could get £4 cheaper with Eon/Sainsburys but they're smart meter tariffs and don't want one at the moment)

    It also leads me to ask people to look into their crystal balls to know how prices may change in the next 2 years and if the cap increases more frequently and with considerable amounts. Ultimately working out more than the fix possibly?

    Or should prices fall in which it may do so sufficiently to make it worth paying the £60 exit fee?
  • bagand96
    bagand96 Posts: 6,381 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    donny-gal said:
    So in effect, when our fixed price with BG ends at the end of January, then just stay with them on their variable tariff?  Even though when I run through the Energy Club it suggesting variable with Utility Warehouse?
    Utility Warehouse are always showing top of the comparison websites at the moment. But it's not like for like, to get those rates you must also take phone and broadband with them. 
  • Astria
    Astria Posts: 1,448 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Name Dropper
    edited 6 December 2021 at 10:00AM
    martyp said:

    On that basis a 40% increase on £845 would be £1139 on the assumption my supplier will jump their variable rate to the price cap the second they are able to (likely if making losses with the current one).
    For me the best fixed rate is for 2 years at £1183 with Scottish Power which also offers £41.50 cashback with Topcashback so potentially £1141.50

    Don't include the cashback with your comparisons - you should get it but there's no guarantee that you will.
    and before you enter into any new fixed rate just check the terms and conditions first. After the last round of companies collapsing I wouldn't be surprised if companies are now putting in "get out" clauses so that they can cancel a fixed rate if they start making a loss on it.
  • Sea_Shell
    Sea_Shell Posts: 9,869 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Astria said:
    martyp said:

    On that basis a 40% increase on £845 would be £1139 on the assumption my supplier will jump their variable rate to the price cap the second they are able to (likely if making losses with the current one).
    For me the best fixed rate is for 2 years at £1183 with Scottish Power which also offers £41.50 cashback with Topcashback so potentially £1141.50

    Don't include the cashback with your comparisons - you should get it but there's no guarantee that you will.
    and before you enter into any new fixed rate just check the terms and conditions first. After the last round of companies collapsing I wouldn't be surprised if companies are now putting in "get out" clauses so that they can cancel a fixed rate if they start making a loss on it.

    Me neither.  The Devil is always in the detail!! But, I'd be very interested in seeing any evidence that this is starting to happen, if it does, and by which supplier first.    
    How's it going, AKA, Nutwatch? - 12 month spends to date = 2.56% of current retirement "pot" (as at end January 2025)
  • wild666
    wild666 Posts: 2,181 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    bagand96 said:
    donny-gal said:
    So in effect, when our fixed price with BG ends at the end of January, then just stay with them on their variable tariff?  Even though when I run through the Energy Club it suggesting variable with Utility Warehouse?
    Utility Warehouse are always showing top of the comparison websites at the moment. But it's not like for like, to get those rates you must also take phone and broadband with them. 
    But you have to take other products with them to get the cheapest deals, something I'm not willing to do just to save a few pound on electric and gas.
    Someone please tell me what money is
  • coupleuk
    coupleuk Posts: 444 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    I do wish we could move away from Ofgems 1, 2 or 3-bed tariff comparisons used by energy providers.

    Why cant we have pence per kWh and pence per day stated - instead they are hidden in price comparison charts and require at least 2 clicks to find them.

    The Ofgem route may be easier to see BUT it DEFINATELY DOES NOT show true results, only "guesstimates".
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