The illusion of rising energy prices.

cheapskate1983

I don't mean to cause drama while most people cannot afford to heat their homes but I want to shine a alternative opinion on the energy market. 
In short you are all being charged outrageous prices for the sake of it, in part to cover the losses which the big 6 are about to face in the coming months. 
The financial markets are about to crash hard. 

The market, buyers and sellers; thinks INFLATION is a big concern. This was actually the case from 2009 to 2018, when money printing was out of control and firmly under the radar of the average person, but now the smart money is moving out of commodities like oil/gas and into bonds/dollars. Sounds crazy right? How could I make such a claim when prices are sky rocketing? 

Well a couple of things:
1. Oil currently has bearish divergence and will likely dump by -75% in price. See picture below. 

2. All major markets have the same kind of bearish divergence including the Ponzi saviour 'Bitcoin'.
3. The DXY dollar index is rising against every other currency on the planet. This means the rich are selling into fiat currency. 
4. Evergrande China bonds have been found to have links with Tether, a USD stablecoin which is about to be sued for bank fraud. It has already defaulted. 
5. Retail trading has been at its highest levels, since ever!
6. Leverage is being reduced across trading exchanges.
7. Commercial debt defaults have been increasing.
And I can go on forever. 

The energy companies are trying to get as many people as they can locked into fixed rate deals at all time high energy prices so when the price falls they have a reliable pool of liquidity. The variable rate tariff is the new fixed rate. 

Those of you who are old enough, like myself, to remember the financial crisis of 2008 will remember that liquidity & credit was the big issue, hence we had a credit crunch. The economy deflated in the crash. Remember back in April 2020, petrol was cheap, supermarket staples fell in price and you could buy takeaway burgers from wholesalers for half the price in supermarkets. DEFLATION happened. Inflation followed as supply was inflated by money printing and now that profits are being taken out the market the artficial price rises are about to crash down hard.

Just don't lock in. Lets these big energy companies hurt. Soon we'll be able to pay 5p for electric and 1p for Gas. Im not joking. 
I'm waiting for price to drop and then I'll lock in.   

If you want any chart analysis posted here to back up my claims I will do so. 

DISCLOSURE:

I am NOT a financial advisor. DO NOT put any of your hard earned money in the markets. Consult a professional before getting involved the markets. 
I am a retail trader. I am NOT a professional. 

Ultrasonic

Would a more relevant graph not be one showing the long term variation is wholesale gas prices?

jamei305

Nonsense. In any case fixed rate deals don't lock people in, they can switch out of them whenever.

cheapskate1983

Ultrasonic said:

Would a more relevant graph not be one showing the long term variation is wholesale gas prices?

unfortunately trading view doesn't allow custom csv imports. can get the csv from ofgem but its just finding software to run it.

heres natural gas. looks bearish as hell in my opinion. 

QrizB

cheapskate1983 said:

Soon we'll be able to pay 5p for electric and 1p for Gas. Im not joking. 
I'm waiting for price to drop and then I'll lock in.  

I guess we'll find out in the spring. Until then, we're all paying the Ofgem cap (or less, if we've got a legacy tariff).

Thrugelmir

cheapskate1983 said:

 I am NOT a professional. 

That's very apparent. There's plenty of well informed research available if you look around on which to form ones own opinions.   

tim_p

cheapskate1983 said:

<twaddlesnip>

Soon we'll be able to pay 5p for electric and 1p for Gas. Im not joking. 
I'm waiting for price to drop and then I'll lock in.   

I think you’re in for a very long wait. I shouldn’t hold your breath. 

lohr500

Well I look forward to your predicted 75% drop in oil prices!! It will make my decision to stick with an oil boiler rather than ASHP even more palatable   And not to mention the reduction in petrol prices.

wittynamegoeshere

I'm going to wait for Father Christmas instead.  The evidence for him turning up is far more credible than a load of made-up wiggly lines drawn on a graph.

Get a fixed rate if you like.  If the Easter Bunny hops along with 5p/unit leccy then anyone should be delighted to pay their exit penalty and switch.

Personally I wouldn't fix at the moment though, mainly because if it becomes advantageous to you then it's likely your supplier will go bust.  Heads they win, tails you lose.

Very busily "doing nothing" here.  Just sit it out, see what actually happens.

LaHostessAvecLaMostess

cheapskate1983 said:

The energy companies are trying to get as many people as they can locked into fixed rate deals at all time high energy prices so when the price falls they have a reliable pool of liquidity. The variable rate tariff is the new fixed rate. 

No, they're trying to get as many people locked into expensive fixed-rate deals because the alternative is being forced to sell their product/service at below-cost rates.

Anyone regardless of whether they're an investment professional or a random idiot should be able to understand that you can't make money if you're selling something for less than it costs you.  Yes, there are things like loss-leaders but that doesn't really matter when you have a single product or service and can't cross-subsidise.

wild666

Customers won't see a drop in prices until the suppliers have made back all the losses they have incurred by those on the SVR either through choice or slipping from a locked deal to SVR as the deal they were offered was far higher than being on the SVR.