Future Cap Prediction - Ouch.

QrizB

wittynamegoeshere said:

I can't imagine £3000+ per year ever looking like a good deal, isn't that well over 30p/unit?

In my region, Sainsbury's "2 Year Fix and Reward v22" is asking 31.626p/kWh plus 35.16p/day for electricity and 9.26205p/kWh plus 37.17p/day for gas.

That's quite a startling tariff.

Planeteer

Incredible! What are the cheapest gas fixes going around then?

QrizB

Planeteer said:

Incredible! What are the cheapest gas fixes going around then?

I can't say it's the cheapest (I haven't looked very hard) but Zog Mercury 24 v40 is a 24-month fix (like Sainsbury's) for 6.9554p/kWh plus 26.25p/day. For a typical user on 12000kWh/yr that's £930/yr, £317/yr less than that Sainsbury's tariff.

Again, that's for my Southern region, yours will vary.

[Deleted User]

Even the Energy Regulator is now suggesting that Capped energy prices will rise significantly in April

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58840537

One has to assume that he has access to the Ofgem Cap model.

QrizB

[Deleted User] said:

Even the Energy Regulator is now suggesting that Capped energy prices will rise significantly in April
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58840537
One has to assume that he has access to the Ofgem Cap model.

I heard him speaking on BBC R4 this morning. He was adamant that the Ofgem cap was there to protect consumers and that it wouldn't change again before April. He also wouldn't be drawn on the suggestion of a bailout for suppliers; I guess that's Kwasi Kwarteng's call.

wittynamegoeshere

Someone at the Tory conference yesterday explicitly stated that they will not be bailing out suppliers.

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of this entire nonsense system of fake competition.  If we all get transferred to something administered by Ofgem, as is the backup plan, then we can start again with something that works better.

This would be similar to what happened to privately owned Railtrack, when it went bust and was taken over by the state as Network Rail, so there's a good precedent for this being the outcome.

tghe-retford

Newspapers and talk radio stations are now leading with the £2,000 price cap in April headline as I write this post.

The problem is, people won't come here to figure out that is a worse case scenario. Nor will they go to the comments sections where people are calling out the scaremongering. That'll be taken by the masses as the expected figure Ofgem will be raising the cap to in April. Like I said, fear, uncertainty and doubt brings profits for media firms and changes public behaviour.

Sea_Shell

tghe-retford said:

Newspapers and talk radio stations are now leading with the £2,000 price cap in April headline as I write this post.

The problem is, people won't come here to figure out that is a worse case scenario. Nor will they go to the comments sections where people are calling out the scaremongering. That'll be taken by the masses as the expected figure Ofgem will be raising the cap to in April. Like I said, fear, uncertainty and doubt brings profits for media firms and changes public behaviour.

I suppose the only up-side would be for people to realise that prices ARE going to go up again in April, and start to at least try and budget for them.     This is your 6 month warning...heed it.

Expect the worst, and the rest is a pleasant surprise!

[Deleted User]

Well, that was fun, quote from one supplier for 2477 on a fixed, previously 980 or so with Avro (yeah, I know they were low but still).
If the cap does go to the aforementioned 2000 then still quids in with it. (not seeing that mentioned?)

Still, this government is not known for U turns. I hope many MP's are getting some rather pertinent correspondence.

savers_united

This talk of 30-45% increases to the cap are not unexpected, its pretty much where fix deals have been the past month.

Fix deals are now well above this level, it's the gamble you take pay more now on a fix or move to cap protected tariff and get hit with big increases in April that bring you in line with the rates being paid by those on fixed tariffs. 

I would still argue that the cap protected tariffs are better to see most through this winter, then by next winter alot can happen and there may be opportunities to fix longer term at a lower rate than those of today.

A higher gas unit rate over the spring / summer months will be less painful for those who have the capped increased in April