Zog - fix for 1 year or 2 years?

[Deleted User]

SamDude said:

Thanks all. My concern with the variable tariff is that if (when) prices go up (very soon?), the fixed offers will go up too - and I'll miss the boat on fixing at the current deals.

I think you've already missed the boat with fixed deals, I got Zog Mercury 24 v34 for 3.2p gas back in August and the best they are offering now is 4.96p in my region - same as your quote above.

[Deleted User]

SamDude said:

Thanks all. My concern with the variable tariff is that if (when) prices go up (very soon?), the fixed offers will go up too - and I'll miss the boat on fixing at the current deals.

The difference between Mercury and Saturn for me is that Mercury is £15 less per year but it has a £30 exit fee (where Saturn has no exit fee).

If I go for the variable, it will be £53/month and the 2year fixed is £62/month. I can live with the £9 month extra (which is likely to be absorbed and overtaken when non-fixed prices increase).

I'd rather stick with a Mercury fixed deal (and hedge my saving on not needing to exit early), so I'm leaning towards Mercury 24 v37.

I think that you will find that fixed tariffs are constantly reacting to market conditions and are in no way linked to the Ofgem Cap. The Cap is effectively a 6 month capped tariff that will cover the bulk of the Winter period. The 'risk' is that the ongoing BEIS discussions might result in an emergency Cap.

DiseasedBunny

[Deleted User] said:

SamDude said:

Thanks all. My concern with the variable tariff is that if (when) prices go up (very soon?), the fixed offers will go up too - and I'll miss the boat on fixing at the current deals.

I think you've already missed the boat with fixed deals, I got Zog Mercury 24 v34 for 3.2p gas back in August and the best they are offering now is 4.96p in my region - same as your quote above.

2.79p in April, for the same Mercury 2 year deal, shows how much it’s increased by even 6 months ago

SamDude

DiseasedBunny said:

[Deleted User] said:

SamDude said:

Thanks all. My concern with the variable tariff is that if (when) prices go up (very soon?), the fixed offers will go up too - and I'll miss the boat on fixing at the current deals.

I think you've already missed the boat with fixed deals, I got Zog Mercury 24 v34 for 3.2p gas back in August and the best they are offering now is 4.96p in my region - same as your quote above.

2.79p in April, for the same Mercury 2 year deal, shows how much it’s increased by even 6 months ago

Yeah, a time machine would be great about now...   

janusdesign

SamDude said:

Yeah, a time machine would be great about now...   

that might not help much if gas prices continue to increase and Zog can't afford to operate at their current offered rates.

I say that as someone who renewed earlier this month with them for another couple of years (Mercury).

I find myself wondering if they're going to be one of the four that the say might close this week (or even any time before the end of that two years)... whatever will be, will be.

spot1034

Just remember we are in a spike which could very quickly reverse - I'm not saying we'll go back down to where we were at the start of all this, and I think it's inevitable that energy prices are going to be higher than they were a year ago - however do not assume that just because we've seen a sharp rise that we are going to see another sharp rise. It's quite likely that a correction to this overshoot in prices will come at some point. Higher wind speeds are forecast for the coming week and that alone could have quite an effect on the day to day price of gas as less is needed for power generation.

I'm offering no guarantees, particularly if we have a long cold winter, but prices in markets like this do not always go up. Quite often, they come down too.

SamDude

spot1034 said:

Just remember we are in a spike which could very quickly reverse - I'm not saying we'll go back down to where we were at the start of all this, and I think it's inevitable that energy prices are going to be higher than they were a year ago - however do not assume that just because we've seen a sharp rise that we are going to see another sharp rise. It's quite likely that a correction to this overshoot in prices will come at some point. Higher wind speeds are forecast for the coming week and that alone could have quite an effect on the day to day price of gas as less is needed for power generation.

I'm offering no guarantees, particularly if we have a long cold winter, but prices in markets like this do not always go up. Quite often, they come down too.

I've always switched for the best deal available when my existing (gas/electricity) deal ends, I didn't think to switch mid deal due to the exit fee.
Going forward I'll be keeping a regular watch on energy prices and deals so I can switch during the deal (taking into account the £30 exit fee). 

savers_united

If you have not already switched to a fixed deal for the winter I would be looking at a variable rate instead protected by the cap. The prices for 1 & 2 year fixed deals are well above where they should be and its energy providers protecting themselves against future shocks and also to recover some losses from cheaper tariffs already offered.

Most variables are still below 4p per kwh, fixed deals are above 5p.

We often see this will oil prices sending up fuel costs, within 6-12 months its back down, many of the reasons for this spike can be resolved in the coming months and will be helped by a milder winter across Europe. 

As the wind speed picks up and turbines.turn again then our reliance on gas for electric generation will be less, this coupled with repairs to the interconnect or from France will send prices back to April/May prices.

Looking further forward with new Nord steam coming online early next year and LPG deliveries not needed as we exit winter there are no strong cases for the prices to remain high by the Spring next year, with the next cap being reviewed in April 22 I don't think there will be the increases being banded about.
Its not in anyone's interest to have high gas prices, even producers like Russia will realise high prices mean a quicker move to alternatives as things previously seen as too expensive suddenly become viable when gas prices are so high.