Who else owns Lindsell Train Japanese?

aroominyork

I will start by asking for no posts saying "How would you invest if your cash was in the bank today?".

So, the miserable ride of the last year continues. I realised early this year that the Japanese market is highly - perhaps uniquely - unpredictable, for reasons I don't fully understand. I decided that because the fund holds quality companies it will recover in not too long, and then I will sell it and buy a Japanese index fund with the proceeds. But that time seems to be disappearing further and further into the future. The latest factsheet says "The quarterly results season is in full flow, with more evidence that industrial and manufacturing companies continue to do well thanks to the heightened levels of technology investment and the surge in commodity prices caused in part by shortages and bottlenecks associated with the pandemic. The Fund does not own shares in these companies and is missing out on this performance while it lasts. Set against this positive results background, lockdowns and movement restrictions persist, especially in much of Asia, which is delaying the return to normality when it comes to personal spending and holding back potential share price gains from many of the companies that we own."

So, what are the rest of you doing?

masonic

aroominyork said:

So, the miserable ride of the last year continues. I realised early this year that the Japanese market is highly - perhaps uniquely - unpredictable, for reasons I don't fully understand.

I don't think it is the market that is the problem here. I'll continue to hold JFJ, which I've been very satisfied with since picking it up about 6 years ago (before that I steered clear of Japan almost entirely). There are a couple of other good investment trusts and OEICs in the sector. TBH I've never heard of this Lindsell Train fund until today, but it looks like you've been very unlucky in choosing it.

aroominyork

masonic said:

aroominyork said:

So, the miserable ride of the last year continues. I realised early this year that the Japanese market is highly - perhaps uniquely - unpredictable, for reasons I don't fully understand.

I don't think it is the market that is the problem here. I'll continue to hold JFJ, which I've been very satisfied with since picking it up about 6 years ago (before that I steered clear of Japan almost entirely). There are a couple of other good investment trusts and OEICs in the sector. TBH I've never heard of this Lindsell Train fund until today, but it looks like you've been very unlucky in choosing it.

I'm not surprised you're happy: here's what's happpened to your IT vs. my fund since last Feb!

I think two things are going on. I do think Japan is unpredictable (I think dunstonh endorsed that view recently and even in bowlhead's day I would prefer dunstonh's view on this). The second is that, as the factsheet says, the LT fund is very consumer-centric. That is the reason I hold Fundsmith rather than LT Global: I like their shared approach, but LT is quite B2C while Fundsmith better balances B2B and B2C, and owning Fundsmith rather than LT Global has made me more than LT Japanese has cost me. LT Japanese has not been a hugely costly mis-step - it is about 4% of my equities - but is of course an annoying one.

masonic

Sure, I can remember dunstonh referring to Japan as a serial disappointment here over a decade ago and the reasons for this were pretty clear. A bubble, recessions, structural problems, etc. As I mentioned, I kept away for quite some time. I tempered my view after the recent policy-driven effects started to show. It still has issues, including now a quite impressive debt:GDP, but in valuation terms looks more attractive than the US, so I was happy to diversify away from there and bring my Japan exposure up to a neutral global weighting (at one point I was up at around 12%, but have trimmed this back).

Thrugelmir

In the midsts of a global pandemic. Hardly surprising that a consumer orientated portfolio is suffering. Pointless exercise assessing performance over short time frames. 

george4064

@aroominyork are you in the GBP Hedged or the unhedged share class?

aroominyork

george4064 said:

@aroominyork are you in the GBP Hedged or the unhedged share class?

Unhedged. I don't buy hedged funds. Although the management fee might be the same, there are in-built forex costs which, over time and assuming some reverting to mean exchange rates, must reduce gains.

tebbins

aroominyork said:

I will start by asking for no posts saying "How would you invest if your cash was in the bank today?".

So, the miserable ride of the last year continues. I realised early this year that the Japanese market is highly - perhaps uniquely - unpredictable, for reasons I don't fully understand. I decided that because the fund holds quality companies it will recover in not too long, and then I will sell it and buy a Japanese index fund with the proceeds. But that time seems to be disappearing further and further into the future.

https://youtu.be/oMmocnLnVgQ start at 08:23

Japan has been a weird one since the asset bubble, the Imperial Palace was worth more than California, and 13 of the top 20 companies in the world by market cap were Japanese. I can't remember if it was Train or Smith who said in an interview Japan is not the same proposition you get in Europe or the US - keiretsus, the emphasis of national security and financial stability over growth and dividends etc.

Rollinghome

To be fair to LT Japanese, you should probably add Man GLG Japan Core Alpha to that chart which has been held by several fund of funds for years and extend it back a few years. Man GLG has been in HL's Wealth list for as long as I can remember.  Up just 25% over 5 years compared to LT's 45%. That includes Man GLG doing much better over the past year.

Until last summer, the LT fund  had also been ahead of JFJ.  I hold/held both - JFJ since the IPO as John Fleming Japanese sometime around the late eighties.  For most of that time JFJ was my worst performing investment, tucked away and forgotten, underwater for 20+ years, with a few small upturns in between, until around 2013 when it started to take off and I bought a few more.

I didn't have the same patience with LT Japanese and sold last September but wouldn't be surprised to see it back. Perhaps worth noting too that JFJ has had the benefit of 13.5% gearing of late.

aroominyork

HL do have some ritual underperformers on their wealth list. As we all know, their choices are based purely on the quality of the funds and never influenced by discounted fees or other factors...

Diplodicus

aroominyork said:

HL do have some ritual underperformers on their wealth list. As we all know, their choices are based purely on the quality of the funds and never influenced by discounted fees or other factors...

Funny you should say that. Neil Woodford had 32 meetings with Hargreaves Lansdown and his fund was in their shop window up to the day it was gated.